Playing 4-8 at Red Rock casino in Vegas. I'm in the BB with $120 stack. UTG limps (he has been pretty tight and I've only seen him play about 4-5 hands the last couple hours) two others limp from mid position. I check my BB with Qx10x.

Flop: 10x5x7x. I lead, opponent calls and the two others fold.

Turn: Qx I bet opponent calls.

River: Jx I bet opponent raises.

I run back through the hand in my head and biased off the information I have I put him on QJ 55 or 77. I open fold and he caps his card with a $1 chip and doesn't show. I know I have great pot odds to call but I really felt this was the correct decision to make.

Does anyone have a different thought on this hand. I've ran this through my head numerous times and am looking for some opinions. Thanks in advance!

I guess he can't since JT since you only speak hands that beats you .
Nvm 55/77, you would of been raised on the turn minimum .

I keep going back to you only have to win less than 12% to make a profitable call. (8.5 : 1.0)

Has NittyMcNit ever raised PF in the last coupla hours? (This would put a top cap on his PF range). I am troubled (as is Mcop) that you only put villain on a winning hand. Plus... QJ may not be realistic since NITs would not play that hand from UTG....nor would they call on the flop with two behind. Couple this with 'cop's logic on the pocket pairs....villain can't have any of the three hands you put him on.

What do the x's mean? It would be better if you put the suits.

I'd call here. 2 hours is a very small sample size. Your hand is fairly high up in your range. You just don't know what he is capable of. Maybe he always limps 57s and maybe he likes to wait to raise the river. Low limit players like to do that for some reason. Maybe he has a passively played QT. JT?

Your probably beat but as has been mentioned you don't have to win that often to profit here. Plus you get info and this hand won't torment you as it did.

I would expect villain to have AK way more often than the hands you mentioned, but he can also have JT so you should call.

Also, don't open fold.

This +1000.

Joining the chorus saying your sample size is small and you should call.

Also joining the chorus saying that thinking only in terms of hands that beat you is a mental leak.

Yeah, AK is probably his most likely hand. There are some regs you could fold against, but I wouldn't fold here without knowing the player very well.

I think you are screwed, but I would still call without extensive history based on the off chance he has QT, JT, or misread his hand.

I think 98s is more likely than AK, but it doesn't really matter.

Oops, I missed 89 was open ended and got there. Now I'm wondering if we should even be betting the river.

Thank you all for the comments. I've been a long time reader but never posted.

The issue w/ calling here hoping to beat JT is that he can't have JTo, but he can have AKo for sure. We're down to 2 combos versus like 20 straight combos. Plus he could also have taken one off w/ QJs and now have two pair (if he's peeling AK, he's peeling QJs)

We may be able to superhero here, but I know none of us would bring ourselves to do it in game.

With QTs you should raise preflop, QTo check.

I wouldn't fully discount JTo from UTG's range. A lot of people like to play it and 2 hours is not a good sample size to eliminate the possibility he's 40 VPIP and just card dead.

I dont see him having 55 or 77 he wouldve raised turn. AK,89,QJ,JT,JJ are all possible. You are beat here more often then not but dont have to be right too often with the odds you are given.

I call here and I'm very weak-tight. There's always the 'player loses their mind factor' i.e. they limped with AA to trap. I expect to lose.

Call. I don't think a tight players calling the flop with AK.

Sent from my SM-G930V using 2+2 Forums

If you had a long history with this player and they're never raising worse yeah a fold is fine, but 2 hours just isn't enough.

Given the info AK is almost only hand the guy could have. Don't think he's limping 9/8 (suited or not)...if he had JJ, then seems like he raises the flop bet, especially with two people behind. And raises 55 or 77 on turn. Maybe J 10 Anyway, still have to call.

A small thing to think about, this is half of the read you need. It could be you don't have the other information, but knowing passive vs aggressive matters. Even in the Vegas 20/40 games, you'll see regs limp hands like ATo plus or minus a pip. They're taking hands they probably should raise (or fold) and limping because they prefer that to folding and they're not quite good enough to raise correctly.

If this guy has any aggression, could he even have AK? Most people know to raise hands this strong. He's played 4-5 hands, were they all limped and cold-called or did he show some aggression? Did you see any hands shown down and were they played passively, correctly, or over-aggressively?
There are ways beyond pure hours to know things better. If you see a guy limp JJ and AK under the gun and then explain to his neighbors "I hate to put in money before I know if I have top pair", you know stuff. Same with him missing clear value raises with 2 pair or TPTK. Totally agree that knowing someone played 5 hands out of 60 isn't enough to hero fold, but our OP should really look for the context of the villain's play and how the villain thinks about poker. It isn't a matter of having 100 hours as much as the right clues.
The way to come to this decision (as others have said) is to think about the frequency of all the hands he could have, and decide you're getting the wrong price.
If you believe your read that he plays 8% of his hands, how many of these hands would be in his UTG range? To me, the key question would be thinking about how the villain would play AQ and KQ, because there are tons of combos of those. Then I'd consider QT, JT, J7, and Q7 combos. I'd also wonder about 2 street slowplays of flopped sets, because if he's turn raising all his baby sets we can take them out of our count.

Once I have an idea about a guess for his preflop range, how he'd play those hands on the flop and turn, I could come to the river and think about how many hands I beat vs. how many beat me. Are we getting the right price? Listing 3 hands that beat you and saying "this is a clear fold" is only part of this process.