Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** ***Official Cereus Regs Thread***

01-13-2010 , 03:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheHip41
isn't it ironic, doncha think
A little too ironic, and I really do think...
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-13-2010 , 05:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
ILP,

There's a reason I've never got serious about investing. It's because there are so many well educated people in the investing world (that was my impression at least).
That's not the impression of one the best money managers of all time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Lynch
Stop listening to the professionals! Twenty years in this business convinces me that any normal person using the customary 3 per cent of the brain can pick stocks just as well, if not better, than the average Wall Street expert...investing, where the smart money isn't so smart, and the dumb money isn't really as dumb as it thinks. Dumb money is only dumb when it listens to the smart money. In fact, the amateur investor has numerous built in advantages that, if exploited, should result in his or her outperforming the experts, and also the market in general.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
How are you able to compete with them?
Well lets start by talking about some of my built in advantages. First, as a small time investor, I can invest in any publicly traded company I want. This isn't really true for most of the major market movers, i.e. large investors like Warren Buffett or most mutual fund managers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glen Arnold, author of "Valuegrowth Investing"
Fund managers with hundreds of millions of dollars to invest suffer from a terrible wealth withering disease: Liquidity-itis. They generally restrict their analysis and purchases to those firms which have a sufficiently large free float of shares to permit millions of dollars worth of investment and, perhaps more importantly to them, disinvestment without moving the share price. As a result their investment universe tends to consist only of company stocks (and other financial assets) that have the quality of high liquidity. This 'fetish of liquidity' leads to large numbers of smaller and medium stocks being ignored by analysts, brokers and fund managers. There is often a high degree of ignorance of the small and medium stocks, except for the hot sectors of the day. Even within the ranks of the large companies, shares fall out of fashion and become ignored by the professional investors. You are far more likely to find bargains in the relatively under-analyzed areas of the market.
Another major advantage for the small investor, the most important imo, is the fact that if we can't find any good investments we have the choice to simply leave our money on the sidelines. Money managers generally don't have that choice, they must always be invested in something, often having their money spread around in hundreds, sometimes thousands, of stocks. They are literally forced to make many bad/mediocre investments which hurts their overall performance. They're equivalent to the poker player who never folds preflop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Warren Buffett
I call investing the greatest business in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it.

The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, 'Swing, you bum!'
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
Haven't they spent way more time studying than you? How do you expect someone to compete with them after only reading a few books?
Well, to be honest, in terms of investing in common stocks only, I would trust my skills over 99% of investors out there. I have read more than a few books though, perhaps over a hundred in this subject area and I've studied countless financial statements over the years. In terms of any other investment instruments, like bonds or options, I know very little, and have no desire to learn more. But my knowledge is really not relevant. You don't have to be a genius to outperform the market in the long run. If that was the case I never would have played this game. In fact, given the advantages a small investor has, beating the market and most money managers in the long run, is not a sign that one is good, it is merely the minimal test of competency.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
What kind of annual ROI do you expect?
My minimal goal is a long term average of 15% per year. This means I'm doubling my money every 5 years. I have no idea what my exact percentage average has been over the last 13 years. My guess would be probably around 25% per year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
What kind of annual standard deviation do you expect?
I have no idea. I think standard deviation is irrelevant. I look for companies that have a record of generating lots of cash, with very little debt, run by managers that are owner oriented. And most importantly, that company most be selling at half its intrinsic value. When these requirements are in place, I invest a significant chunk of my net worth in that company, and then I sit and wait for possibly years. As long as I have money on the sidelines, I would prefer the standard deviation of the stock price to be as high as possible, thus creating many short term opportunities for me to buy more shares at bargain prices.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
Why can't I hire an investment guy to achieve a comparable results?
You can go that route but I wouldn't recommend it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Lynch
The majority are 'run-of-the-mill fund managers, dull fund managers, comatose fund managers, sycophantic fund managers, timid fund managers, plus other assorted camp followers, fuddy-duddies and copycats hemmed in by the rules'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
This is one of the reasons I like poker. It has a horrible reputation. It's filled with stupid degens.
The market is like a manic depressive woman constantly on her period (bad cramps and everything). On a regular basis, stock prices get violently out of control either up or down. Once you learn how to spot and value good companies (reading the first book on my list will take you a long way), you'll be able to take advantage of these short term swings and buy shares of these companies at deeply discounted prices. It's a game of buying dollars for fifty cents. It works out in the long run.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Graham
...in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine (i.e. its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price).
I truly believe that anyone who is able to make a living playing poker, already has the smarts and emotional mindset to be a great investor.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-13-2010 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorcho
come on if we're sex ranking we need more categories

plz rank the following:

1. new girl sex
2. yesteryear girl sex
3. make-up sex (after argument with girl you were monogamous with)
4. drunken sex
5. drug-induced sex
6. one-for-the-road sex (one last time after a breakup)
7. public sex (sex with at least a moderate chance of getting caught by a stranger)
8. hate sex (can't stand the girl)
9. ive-waited-entirely-too-long-for-this sex (been waiting multiple years to get this chick into bed)
10. what-was-your-name-again? sex (you're more or less complete strangers)
This list hurts my brain, but I'll try to answer. Firstly, numbers 4 and 5 are excluded from my list cause I don't really have any experience with that. I mean a few times I have had sex when my girlfriends were drunk, but I didn't really notice a difference. Since I don't drink/do drugs, or go to parties and bars, I've never learned how to master this angle. I excluded 3 cause I hate make up sex. The trouble is not worth it imo. I've excluded 6 cause I've never had the "severance pop" experience. I imagine it would be nice though. Same with 9, no experience with that cause I don't have the discipline to wait. Ok on to my list, with the best being last.



6) Public sex. Only worth it if it's with a new girl.

5) yesteryear girl sex. It's hard to get more romantic than this. You have a history so you're already comfortable, and the fact that she came back for more makes her very special in my book.

4) hate sex. Few things beat f**king a total bitch who thinks she's too good for you. It helps matters if she's actually right too.

3) new girl sex. Overfocus on making a good first impression takes away a little of the fun, but taking off the panties for the first time, and sticking it in for the first time are still HUGE rushes.

2) Sex with stranger. Easily beats out "new girl sex" because it's the same as that BUT better. Touching a girl I barely know is much better than touching a girl I've already had 3 dates with.

1) gcp's sister sex. That girl really turns me on. Her wild eyes and mischievous smile makes her extremely sexy. Combine those irresistible traits with her untamable spirit and she's basically the exact kind of girl I look for. Not to mention her young tight body.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-13-2010 , 06:30 PM
beat: I've had simultaneous drunk/i've-waited-too-long-for-this sex

only i was so drunk i don't remember a god damn thing

sick beat

"severance sex" is awesome. I dated a girl for a year until she started bugging the **** out of me and I didn't even want to sleep with her anymore. I dumped her but we remained friends. One-for-the-road sex became 50-for-the-road sex cuz that's all I wanted to do every time I saw her for some reason. it's like the breakup made me want her again. It was weird.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-13-2010 , 06:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GCP
ILP, what's the minimum you would need to get started?
$500 is the minimum for opening an account at the online brokerage I buy stocks through. But if you want to diversify at least 3 ways, you probably need a little more than that. Say $3000, so you can invest a thousand in each. Ideally you want to start out by opening a Roth IRA account where your money can grow tax free, and even when you cash out at 59.5 years old, it's still tax free. You can invest up to $5000 a year in this vehicle. So if you could, you should try to be in a position where you can save that amount every year. That's the first major goal to shoot for.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-13-2010 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorcho
no pics before sexytime, i have sick jinxing skills
Also, I totally understand. I ascribe to this theory too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorcho
but yes, I love going back to the well, especially when you know that well is freak nasty
Freak nasty is the only kind I want! I would definitely hijack a commercial airline and crash into a symbolic skyscraper for 72 freak nasty girls!
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 12:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorcho
beat: I've had simultaneous drunk/i've-waited-too-long-for-this sex

only i was so drunk i don't remember a god damn thing

sick beat
Ha! Sounds like good news though. I mean there's now probably a good chance you'll get to bang her again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorcho
"severance sex" is awesome. I dated a girl for a year until she started bugging the **** out of me and I didn't even want to sleep with her anymore. I dumped her but we remained friends. One-for-the-road sex became 50-for-the-road sex cuz that's all I wanted to do every time I saw her for some reason. it's like the breakup made me want her again. It was weird.
Sounds like the perfect relationship. No bull**** pretext. Just two people that wanna f**k. As far as severance sex, I may have sort of had that. When I was 20 I lost my virginity to a 35 year old. (by lost my virginity I mean this was the first girl I f**ked without paying for it). She said that we could have lots of sex for two weeks but then we had to break it off. I was like holy sh*t, two weeks is like forever! This is awesome! Well two weeks turned into 8 months, and then she asked me if I would ever marry her and I said, no. Inside I was like "Are you ****ing kidding me?! I'm 20 years old and there's tons of bitches out there I needs to f**k."

She was very hurt by my denial, and after that watershed moment, she slowly weaned me off her over a 2 month period. It was very nice and humane and we ended on amicable terms. She's now 46, and I wish I could cyberstalk her but for the life of me I can't remember her last name. I've tried half-ass searches with the few bits of information I can remember but always came up empty. I would love to f**k her again. I bet she still has a nice body.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 03:34 PM
Thanks for the reply ILP.

I actually played golf with a guy who like to invest yesterday. We got to talking and it was obvious to me that he didn't get it. This was very encouraging to me.

After that I met some girl fom PoF for dinner. She was way more attractive in her profile. I'd give her a 8 or 9 based on her profile pics, she was a 5 or 6 irl. How many points does the average girl lose when she goes from online to live? She offered to pay nothing for dinner. I didn't care about the money, and expected to pay, but no offer thing put me on tilt. On top of that she lived with her parents, and had no desire to move out.

I'd still rank her above the first girl I met, who said she didn't have kids on her profile (this is one of the questions on PoF) then started talking about her 2 year old.

I seriously hope I'm just running bad at PoF.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 03:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin

After that I met some girl fom PoF for dinner. She was way more attractive in her profile. I'd give her a 8 or 9 based on her profile pics, she was a 5 or 6 irl. How many points does the average girl lose when she goes from online to live? She offered to pay nothing for dinner. I didn't care about the money, and expected to pay, but no offer thing put me on tilt. On top of that she lived with her parents, and had no desire to move out.
starting point (online pics): 8.5

in person: -2

didn't even put up an offer to pay: -1

lives with parents: -1

no desire to move out: -2

awesome how it goes from 8.5 to 2.5 very easily

Kinda reminds me of one of my favorite dialogs about dating new chicks from A Bronx Tale:

Quote:
Sonny: Alright, listen to me. You pull up right where she lives, right? Before you get outta the car, you lock both doors. Then, get outta the car, you walk over to her. You bring her over to the car. Dig out the key, put it in the lock and open the door for her. Then you let her get in. Then you close the door. Then you walk around the back of the car and look through the rear window. If she doesn't reach over and lift up that button so that you can get in: dump her.

Calogero 'C' Anello: Just like that?

Sonny: Listen to me, kid. If she doesn't reach over and lift up that button so that you can get in, that means she's a selfish broad and all you're seeing is the tip of the iceberg. You dump her and you dump her fast.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 04:15 PM
Ship the WPT southern poker classic 500.00 LHE event. My starting table was made up of mostly ap/ub people with me, owdogg, and papa raisonbran at the same table. :P
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorcho
starting point (online pics): 8.5

in person: -2

didn't even put up an offer to pay: -1

lives with parents: -1

no desire to move out: -2

awesome how it goes from 8.5 to 2.5 very easily
Agreed. How many points would you say they are losing on average? The first girl I met dropped from 8 to 1 or 2.

As for this one: She's 22, graduated this summer, works as a teacher for elementary school kids, so probably gets paid like 30k or something. I live in a pretty expensive area. I know how to tough it is to find a real job, so I can let living with her parents slide. But she said if her parents moved back to MN, she'd move too. WTF is going on in someone's head that would make them want to do that? I also can't let the 15 lbs she gained between the time her pics were taken and now slide. She has the potential to be really hot, it's too bad that she's not going to realize that potential.

I've got no clue what my play is at this point, but not talking to her again seems like the leader. I have no interest in her outside of sex, and the logicistics of this would be difficult, since she lives with her folks and I live 45 mins from her.

I'd post her profile, but there's too much trainwreck potential, so I'll paraphrase it: "I've been ****ed and ditched by a ton of guys and I'm bitter about it". I'm not sure how it'd feel about being the nth guy to do this, but I know there's a chance I'd feel really bad and it wouldn't be worth it.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 04:50 PM
It's like RAINNNN on your weddding day!
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
Thanks for the reply ILP.

I actually played golf with a guy who like to invest yesterday. We got to talking and it was obvious to me that he didn't get it. This was very encouraging to me.

After that I met some girl fom PoF for dinner. She was way more attractive in her profile. I'd give her a 8 or 9 based on her profile pics, she was a 5 or 6 irl. How many points does the average girl lose when she goes from online to live? She offered to pay nothing for dinner. I didn't care about the money, and expected to pay, but no offer thing put me on tilt. On top of that she lived with her parents, and had no desire to move out.

I'd still rank her above the first girl I met, who said she didn't have kids on her profile (this is one of the questions on PoF) then started talking about her 2 year old.

I seriously hope I'm just running bad at PoF.


as i told wes before, you get what you pay for at PoF
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 05:10 PM
meh, I feel like I'm too young for match.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 05:17 PM
how does someone go from an 8 in pictures to a 1 or 2 irl? This intrigues me.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NinaWilliams
how does someone go from an 8 in pictures to a 1 or 2 irl? This intrigues me.

they start talking, obv
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 05:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NinaWilliams
how does someone go from an 8 in pictures to a 1 or 2 irl? This intrigues me.
I can't possilby explain it better than scorcho and thehip.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NinaWilliams
how does someone go from an 8 in pictures to a 1 or 2 irl? This intrigues me.

example:

last year i got a date with this cute girl. now, she's probably a 6 on the OOT scale, but she was cute. I'm thinking to myself, why is this girl single.


well, here's why

1. she LOVES WWE. has all the PPV on tape.

2. that's right, tape, as in VCR

3. she lives in a trailer

4. with 4 cats

5. with her ex boyfriend



you see how this works now
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 06:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheHip41
example:

last year i got a date with this cute girl. now, she's probably a 6 on the OOT scale, but she was cute. I'm thinking to myself, why is this girl single.


well, here's why

1. she LOVES WWE. has all the PPV on tape.

2. that's right, tape, as in VCR

3. she lives in a trailer

4. with 4 cats

5. with her ex boyfriend



you see how this works now
#1 is kind of hot actually. And cats are cute

Rest aren't but whatever. I'm talking looks wise. How does a girl that looks great in pictures look awful irl? Do they like photo shop or something? Plus I thought guys only rated girls on looks and then added 1 or 2 points for availability.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NinaWilliams

Rest aren't but whatever. I'm talking looks wise. How does a girl that looks great in pictures look awful irl? Do they like photo shop or something? Plus I thought guys only rated girls on looks and then added 1 or 2 points for availability.


do u see now?
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 06:17 PM
#1 is not hot at all.

Cats are not cute. Kittens are cute.

That can make a 9 goto a 5 in no time.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 06:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NinaWilliams
#1 is kind of hot actually. And cats are cute

Rest aren't but whatever. I'm talking looks wise. How does a girl that looks great in pictures look awful irl? Do they like photo shop or something? Plus I thought guys only rated girls on looks and then added 1 or 2 points for availability.

also, if they take pictures from 4 years ago, and it is at the right angle, they can ghost about 40 pounds.

when you meet in person, you know it's the same person, but it's not the same person
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
Thanks for the reply ILP.

I actually played golf with a guy who like to invest yesterday. We got to talking and it was obvious to me that he didn't get it. This was very encouraging to me.
Yeah I would say most investors are actually speculators. This actuality usually remains unbeknownst to them even after years of poor performance. Benjamin Graham once wrote that "investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike". Warren Buffett has said those were the most important words ever written about investment. Luckily most "investors" don't take those words seriously which helps create many profitable opportunities for those few that do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
After that I met some girl fom PoF for dinner. She was way more attractive in her profile. I'd give her a 8 or 9 based on her profile pics, she was a 5 or 6 irl. How many points does the average girl lose when she goes from online to live?
Well one thing to keep in mind is most people tend to put the best pic possible of them in their profiles. So right away you're seeing an image of them that has a great chance of not being accurate. I would say on average a girl loses 2 points in looks once you see her live.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
She offered to pay nothing for dinner. I didn't care about the money, and expected to pay, but no offer thing put me on tilt. On top of that she lived with her parents, and had no desire to move out.
I don't know what the f**k is going on here. She has a vagina. She's allowed not to offer to pay. And who cares if she lives with her parents. She has a vagina!

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
I'd still rank her above the first girl I met, who said she didn't have kids on her profile (this is one of the questions on PoF) then started talking about her 2 year old.
Ha! Nice bait and switch. If she was skinny and ready to f**k, I would forgive her. The typical bait and switch is the obvious one of the girl weighing more than her profile conveyed. This is such a commonality that you can devise a pretty accurate formula from it. Before you meet the girl irl, subtract one inch in height and add 15lbs to her perceived weight and your expectations will now be aligned with reality. This formula breaks down once you date really skinny girls in the 100lb range, but for the 120lb range and up, it's often eerily accurate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
I seriously hope I'm just running bad at PoF.
I have bad news for you. You're not running bad. You're simply running. Remember, online dating is like panning for gold. You're supposed to fail most of the time. To run bad in online dating means to not get dates. For example, if you put in a sincere effort for 3 weeks and can't seem to line up a date (a possibility that can happen to the best of us) then you're running bad. So last winter when I went on my approx 40 dates of fail streak, I wasn't running bad. I was getting plenty of action. It's only when you can't get off the bench, can't get up to the plate, insert whatever metaphor you like, that you can be said to be running bad.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 07:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
meh, I feel like I'm too young for match.
I don't think that's true at all, but that's not even relevant because I really can't see any discernible difference between match and pof. Now it's true I've had more gf luck at match, but my sample size is still small enough to render this occurrence to normal variance. So I think you're just fine at pof. However, if you get to the point where you think you need a larger market, then I would recommend adding match and/or yahoo personals.
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote
01-14-2010 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by noles321
Ship the WPT southern poker classic 500.00 LHE event. My starting table was made up of mostly ap/ub people with me, owdogg, and papa raisonbran at the same table. :P
Siiiick
***Official Cereus Regs Thread*** Quote

      
m