Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
ILP,
There's a reason I've never got serious about investing. It's because there are so many well educated people in the investing world (that was my impression at least).
That's not the impression of one the best money managers of all time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Lynch
Stop listening to the professionals! Twenty years in this business convinces me that any normal person using the customary 3 per cent of the brain can pick stocks just as well, if not better, than the average Wall Street expert...investing, where the smart money isn't so smart, and the dumb money isn't really as dumb as it thinks. Dumb money is only dumb when it listens to the smart money. In fact, the amateur investor has numerous built in advantages that, if exploited, should result in his or her outperforming the experts, and also the market in general.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
How are you able to compete with them?
Well lets start by talking about some of my built in advantages. First, as a small time investor, I can invest in any publicly traded company I want. This isn't really true for most of the major market movers, i.e. large investors like Warren Buffett or most mutual fund managers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glen Arnold, author of "Valuegrowth Investing"
Fund managers with hundreds of millions of dollars to invest suffer from a terrible wealth withering disease: Liquidity-itis. They generally restrict their analysis and purchases to those firms which have a sufficiently large free float of shares to permit millions of dollars worth of investment and, perhaps more importantly to them, disinvestment without moving the share price. As a result their investment universe tends to consist only of company stocks (and other financial assets) that have the quality of high liquidity. This 'fetish of liquidity' leads to large numbers of smaller and medium stocks being ignored by analysts, brokers and fund managers. There is often a high degree of ignorance of the small and medium stocks, except for the hot sectors of the day. Even within the ranks of the large companies, shares fall out of fashion and become ignored by the professional investors. You are far more likely to find bargains in the relatively under-analyzed areas of the market.
Another major advantage for the small investor, the most important imo, is the fact that if we can't find any good investments we have the choice to simply leave our money on the sidelines. Money managers generally don't have that choice, they must always be invested in something, often having their money spread around in hundreds, sometimes thousands, of stocks. They are literally forced to make many bad/mediocre investments which hurts their overall performance. They're equivalent to the poker player who never folds preflop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warren Buffett
I call investing the greatest business in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it.
The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, 'Swing, you bum!'
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
Haven't they spent way more time studying than you? How do you expect someone to compete with them after only reading a few books?
Well, to be honest, in terms of investing in common stocks only, I would trust my skills over 99% of investors out there. I have read more than a few books though, perhaps over a hundred in this subject area and I've studied countless financial statements over the years. In terms of any other investment instruments, like bonds or options, I know very little, and have no desire to learn more. But my knowledge is really not relevant. You don't have to be a genius to outperform the market in the long run. If that was the case I never would have played this game. In fact, given the advantages a small investor has, beating the market and most money managers in the long run, is not a sign that one is good, it is merely the minimal test of competency.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
What kind of annual ROI do you expect?
My minimal goal is a long term average of 15% per year. This means I'm doubling my money every 5 years. I have no idea what my exact percentage average has been over the last 13 years. My guess would be probably around 25% per year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
What kind of annual standard deviation do you expect?
I have no idea. I think standard deviation is irrelevant. I look for companies that have a record of generating lots of cash, with very little debt, run by managers that are owner oriented. And most importantly, that company most be selling at half its intrinsic value. When these requirements are in place, I invest a significant chunk of my net worth in that company, and then I sit and wait for possibly years. As long as I have money on the sidelines, I would prefer the standard deviation of the stock price to be as high as possible, thus creating many short term opportunities for me to buy more shares at bargain prices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
Why can't I hire an investment guy to achieve a comparable results?
You can go that route but I wouldn't recommend it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Lynch
The majority are 'run-of-the-mill fund managers, dull fund managers, comatose fund managers, sycophantic fund managers, timid fund managers, plus other assorted camp followers, fuddy-duddies and copycats hemmed in by the rules'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrVanNostrin
This is one of the reasons I like poker. It has a horrible reputation. It's filled with stupid degens.
The market is like a manic depressive woman constantly on her period (bad cramps and everything). On a regular basis, stock prices get violently out of control either up or down. Once you learn how to spot and value good companies (reading the first book on my list will take you a long way), you'll be able to take advantage of these short term swings and buy shares of these companies at deeply discounted prices. It's a game of buying dollars for fifty cents. It works out in the long run.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Graham
...in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine (i.e. its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price).
I truly believe that anyone who is able to make a living playing poker, already has the smarts and emotional mindset to be a great investor.