Quote:
Originally Posted by Abbaddabba
I think sports betting lines are a lot more efficient than stock markets because the value of a stock is infinitely more complex, and there're so many more things that can influence their value in ways that most people can't imagine.
Having pinpoint accuracy is obviously really difficult in both.
But being "close" to the mark is a LOT easier in sports. Given the simplicity of picking a reasonably accurate spread, the juice in most sports books is really high.
Handicapping poker would be a lot more interesting....
...and this barely scratches the surface.
Many casual sportsbettors hold hard & fast to the "home field worth 3 points" idea, when it is so dependent on other factors, including but not limited to how the teams strengths & weaknesses match up, injuries, field conditions, the current trend of their season, yada yada.
While you can theoretically win 50% of your bets by flipping a coin, it is extremely difficult to sustain a 60% winrate over the long term - making it critical to use a lot of "outs" for your sportsbetting to give you every opportunity to get the best number at the best time.