Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148
but you can always rely on reading the situation.
I agree with you on the above principle. The challenge is that we are not reading the situation the same. Let's discuss!
I've read your reply a few times, and respectfully, I'm coming away with the impression that we are cobbling together some best-case scenarios to justify continuance here. Now, you've got 10K+ posts under your belt, which tells me you've (at the very least) discussed more hands than I have, so I look forward to being educated if I'm not thinking clearly. That said, here's my take on this --
a) I think I get what you said about me "changing my mind." Let me explain what I meant. Absent draws, I think the ace outs are a lot dirtier than it seems you may think, so I'm not hanging my hat on it (see below). The only real reason for me to continue here is Q-hunting, and the crux of it is that I'm not getting the right price here. I pick up a BDFD, and that changes. Doesn't mean I like my chances with the ace any better.
b) OP says flop is "KTx." I infer that "x" is inconsequential. So the only real two-pair out here is KT, which is already rather unlikely, but I disagree that there are "numerous" 2-Pair hands out there. Instead, I think there is a very good chance at least one of my opponents has a good ace (AK-AT) and/or an ace that suits to the board (ours does not). Very few of these permutations bode well for us.
I think this how I would best articulate my position: I don't mind taking an equity deficiency in the right situations, but I contend that this is not the right situation. Lots of PF / Flop action tells me we're up against better hands than average and we don't have the benefit of position. I play 20/40, and if you play larger games where you just have to grit your teeth and navigate these situations with more aplomb, I salute you. As for me? ... it just boils down to knowing I can find better spots. I think a lot of position, and when I don't have it, and the decision is close (I think this one certainly is), I'm inclined to come down on the "Fold" side.