FR

maniac limps, folds to me in the SB, i raise AJs, nondescript guy 3 bets Big blind, maniac caps, i call, other guy calls.

flop KTx two tone none of my suit, i check, nondescript guy bets, maniac raises, I ....

fwiw im pretty sure nondescript guy is gonna 3 bet the flop. should i still call?

what price are you getting and how many outs do you estimate that you have?

7.5:1 now. 3.5 gutterballouts with the FD on board and 1.5 dirty ace outs so like 5. there are also implied odds because nobody is folding if i hit, but also reverse implied odds with dirty outs and chances that i lose even if hitting the nuts.

I'd call.

This is worth consideration. If your read proves to be correct, then your actual price to get a turn card ends up being 18:3, or 6:1.

In an absolute sense, you're not getting the immediate price to continue. I think implied odds / reverse implied odds are a bit overrated in limit games; in any case, these considerations appear to cancel themselves out here.

If you had a back door flush possibility, then maybe you could justify a peel. But, out-of-position against significant resistance, with a hand that may end up losing even if it binks the ace? I recommend a fold.

+1

One thing to do is look left. See if the villain is already pulling out 3 betting chips.

It's true that your ace isn't going to win every time. this is true of the vast majority of poker hands, even particularly strong hands. I liked your post up to this part as it seems you're changing your mind for (imo) misguided heuristics.

funny thing happens when you hit an ace on that board, your outs increase when behind as now you can make a better 2 pair or three aces to counterfeit the numerous 2 pair hands that are most definitely out there at frequency that's definitely not negligible. However, this in itself isn't a reason to fold, nor is a pure out counting exercise appropriate, nor is a raw equity calculation worthwhile here. The fact remains that we raised a maniac in a 3 handed pot(the players that folded are irrelevant here when folded to us). We flopped the 3rd(33rd actually) best draw out there and you guys want to fold the flop for 2 bets getting 16:2 immediate at best(assuming bb calls, he bet into a maniac thus he should have a pretty strong hand here, which is exactly why we're drawing on the flop), and 20:4 at worst? worst case scenario is less than 17% pot investment, and although the maniac will likely cap if given the opportunity, he will not have the opportunity every time. This brings down the average price on the flop, depending on the big blinds calling frequency. I would think this happens often enough to get the average investment down under 14. Our ace only really has to win enough to make up for 4 or 5% equity deficiency on the flop, and I wouldn't fold if I hit a jack either, which adds a little bit of realizable equity to make up the deficiency.

yes looking left is good, although I wouldn't base my decision in a big pot vs a maniac and someone I know nothing about all on a tell that he's grabbing chips.

One of my favorite poker quotes I forget who said it: You can't always rely on reading the player, but you can always rely on reading the situation.

This is exactly why I can't recommend folding this hand yet. Face me with two cold on the turn unimproved and I'll fold, but not yet.

I'd fold flop but I play bad.

Would wait for better spot vs maniac.

I agree with you on the above principle. The challenge is that we are not reading the situation the same. Let's discuss!

I've read your reply a few times, and respectfully, I'm coming away with the impression that we are cobbling together some best-case scenarios to justify continuance here. Now, you've got 10K+ posts under your belt, which tells me you've (at the very least) discussed more hands than I have, so I look forward to being educated if I'm not thinking clearly. That said, here's my take on this --

a) I think I get what you said about me "changing my mind." Let me explain what I meant. Absent draws, I think the ace outs are a lot dirtier than it seems you may think, so I'm not hanging my hat on it (see below). The only real reason for me to continue here is Q-hunting, and the crux of it is that I'm not getting the right price here. I pick up a BDFD, and that changes. Doesn't mean I like my chances with the ace any better.

b) OP says flop is "KTx." I infer that "x" is inconsequential. So the only real two-pair out here is KT, which is already rather unlikely, but I disagree that there are "numerous" 2-Pair hands out there. Instead, I think there is a very good chance at least one of my opponents has a good ace (AK-AT) and/or an ace that suits to the board (ours does not). Very few of these permutations bode well for us.

I think this how I would best articulate my position: I don't mind taking an equity deficiency in the right situations, but I contend that this is not the right situation. Lots of PF / Flop action tells me we're up against better hands than average and we don't have the benefit of position. I play 20/40, and if you play larger games where you just have to grit your teeth and navigate these situations with more aplomb, I salute you. As for me? ... it just boils down to knowing I can find better spots. I think a lot of position, and when I don't have it, and the decision is close (I think this one certainly is), I'm inclined to come down on the "Fold" side.

actually I did the opposite. I laid out worst case (17% investment) and pointed out that reality is slightly better (probably around 14% average investment).

vs normal opponents I would agree, but these are not normal opponents.

a maniac limped preflop. this hand is so far from standard that such an approach is not going to give an accurate answer.

I don't claim that this spot is wildly profitable. It's not. It's close for sure.

If you really think an ace never wins, then easy fold. I agree with the conclusion. It's the process that I have issue with.

The math on pot investment itself is fine. I think it's tough to come up with an exact average (13% best, 20% worst, and relying on a 3-Bet not capped by maniac at a decent frequency to bring it down), so your 14% is as good an estimate as any. We agree that it is close in any case. What I meant by "best-case scenarios to justify continuance" was that you seem to think our hand has more value than I do, given the opposition/action.

That said, I'm not sure how you are finding fault with my thought process. I didn't just "do the math" and come up with a fold. My subjective read on the opposition (albeit short, and boiled down to "hitting ace may not be good enough") was baked into my objective calculation of our hand value. We have limited data (maniac did this, straight-forward BB did that), and absent detailed info/history, I was inclined to keep it simple in my response to OP. Roughly even money hand, out of position? Tuck in the muck; move on.

If we disagree on the sanity of our opposition and the strength of their ranges, then okay, fair enough. I think calling and folding are both defensible. But if you think I'm missing something important in how I think about it, I'd like to hear more.

Seemed like you were saying that since the Ace doesn’t always win then we should fold. I thought it was incomplete analysis and that’s what I took exception to.

Fair ball.