Quote:
Originally Posted by ChocolateMoo
What do you think 15/30 and 30/60 are beatable for?
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
3-5 BB/hr
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChocolateMoo
I was asking sincerely.
And I was only being partially facetious.
I'll explain (warning: almost certainly gonna be tldr).
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChocolateMoo
there's really no value trying to substantiate even any statement about my wr
Trying to guess how much you'd win at 15/30-20/40-30/60-40/80 is even more ridiculous than trying to verify what you won at 6/12. Live sample sizes are so small that even if someone played exactly the same in exactly the same game, full time for 10 years, mathematically yhey would have trouble nailing down their true winrate by +/- 25%. So live winrates kind of boil down to a qualitative feeling that you benchmark against something else.
Qualitatively, I think 2012 30/60 had the same feel as 2010 6/12. My skills increased and the proportional rake went down, villains got better and the game structure got narrower. Basically, if you feel comfortable at 6/12, I think you can feel as comfortable at 30/60.
If I had to try to pin a quantitative number on it, I'd try to peg it to an online WR, for which I have a much larger sample. It'd be the same feel that I got from the pre-BF PS 10c/20c games, which I beat for about 2.5 BB/100 (eqivalent of 1 BB/hr) over a depressingly large sample. But not the 2c/4c games, which were just total clowns (like half the people not even trying), which I beat for 6 BB/100 (equiv 2 BB/hr). And not the higher limits, which were definitely tougher, like week to week I'd wonder if I were actually beating the game, and I definitely saw my winrate slide down, from 1.8 BB/100 at 25c/50c to 1.2 BB/100 at 2/4.
Each move up gives you a boost in winrate. It's sub-linear to the stakes, so if you're bankroll-limited, there's a legitimate case for saying that your CE for a lower stake is greater than your CE for a higher stake. But at high WR, a recreational player really has no excuse for being bankroll limited - as someone pointed out, if you really expect to win $50k in 1,000 hours, you should probably play 6/12 every night for a month and win a 30/60 bankroll.
There are two main reasons why I think staying at 6/12 is overrated, and money is actually neither of them.
1. It's way more fulfilling to beat better players. Even my 6-year-old son understands this, there's only so many times he can lend me Fletchling and Litleo and thrash me with Mega Kangaskan before it's mind numbingly boring.
2. It allows you to play whatever you want. I can sit down in a tough 20 game (like when a bunch of 2p2ers got together) and be OK; if I get invited to the Judges' Game in Rounders, I'd be OK; if my friends want to get drunk and donk around at 6/12, I'm OK. It's not unlike being rich IRL - rich people don't have to buy a fancy car, but they can if they want, and that freedom alone (to be able to choose) is valuable.
To be frank, I don't usually focus on the money because I assume that you're doing OK. The US economy is in one of its longest bull runs, SFBA economy is doing even better, and if you're not in the financial position you want to be in, it's really bad news when the **** hits the fan. There's not a huge amount of life difference between making $10/hr at yiur hobby or $40/hr at your hobby. And if you just want a little dark money for hookers and blow, that's cool. But there is, or at least was, an opportunity to do something cool, to move up and say you've played with some of the best, to be able to take a 10 year break from poker and come back and still be comfortable and have fun. If you're getting all you want from poker, best of luck to you. If you ever wonder if there's more, sneak through any doors that are open even just a crack, before they close all the way.