Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
I'd have taken the over in 2009. But I suspect El Capitan would have set the line higher back then.
I would have thought 1.0-1.5 was possible. But rake has gone up by a pip plus the BBJ has gone from house funded (-$0.25) to a BBJ drop (+$0.50-$0.75). On top of that it's hard to imagine games have not gotten harder.
In days of yore, $10/$20 FLH at the Taj in AC was a $5 per player per 30 minute dealer 'down' (rotation in the 'box') time charge; $20/$40 was $7 and $40/$80 was $8 and these were all 10-handed games - don't ask me to explain the logic of the progression because I don't know.
But over at Foxwoods, especially back when they played 'upstairs', $10/$20 AND $20/$40 both had a $4 max rake ($2 after the Flop; $1 more when the pot grew to more than $40; the last $1 at >$80).
Obviously, a timed game is preferred, especially if someone was putting up a 'time bank'. But even with a $4 rake at $10/$20, it was very possible to beat the game for ~1.5 Big Bets per hour... and if you were shrewd and lucky enough, you often got the first hour of a 'new' game free of any rake charge.
[I've read that some people get confused by the 'BB/hr' shorthand as the 'BB' is misconstrued for 'Big Blind' which is equal to a 'Small Bet' in most FLH games - not be confused with the 'SB' small blind shorthand...but I digress.]
Anyway, the (same) $4 max-rake effect was even further minimized at $20/$40. All of this being a long, drawn-out way to say that when the max rake is less than a quarter of a Big Bet, the possibility of 'beating' the game improves greatly. As the fractional size of the max rake in relation to a Big Bet increases, 'beating' the game becomes less and less likely.
Without getting into the longer, esoteric 'math', one-half or 50% is kinda like the inverse/reverse Mendoza line for poker (I hope that's not too much of an 'inside baseball' reference). Anything more or 'beyond' this 'line' and the idea of 'beating the game' becomes just about laughable...again, I'll disregard the [additional] effect of dealer tokes - see my earlier post.
At a 5+1 rake+PSJ (Promotional Side Jackpots) structure for the Oaks $6/$12, you're right on the fence. I'm fairly convinced that 'honest' reporting for larger sample sizes would have results converging towards my earlier supposition of $6-$8/hr and that's being both generous and optimistic regarding the player's skill and consistent errorless or near error-free performance(s).
Good Luck and Good Hunting!
Last edited by sam7595; 04-07-2018 at 04:02 AM.