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Originally Posted by Skymasters0n
Also worth noting. I believe that since the $1 jackpot drop is "player funded", the expectation is that you will get that money back over time.
This is not exactly true.
One issue is that card rooms in California are allowed to deduct a "reasonable" fee for administering jackpots and other promotions. I once discussed this with the general manager of the Oaks, and my recollection is that he said they take 20% for administrative costs. That means if they collect $1 million/year in player-funded jackpot monies, they keep $200,000.
Another issue is that at any given time, the card room is holding several hundred thousand dollars in jackpot monies in reserve: not just the current jackpots, but funds for backup jackpots (so that when the current jackpot hits, it doesn't revert to $0) and funds for all those high hand promotions.
The biggest issue is probably that jackpot monies get distributed back to players unequally. Yes, if you're a regular, you will probably get your share of high hand bonuses and maybe even table shares. But you could play once or twice a week for several decades without receiving a five-figure jackpot payout, or you could get two of them in a single year.
And then when you do hit a big score, you may decide to tip very generously—not just the dealer but various floors and chip sellers and cocktail waitresses and cashiers and maybe even other players. There's a huge thread about this in Casino & Cardroom Poker—how much should you tip when you hit a jackpot? Anecdotally, I've heard people talk about tipping 10% or more pretax (which I think is excessive, but it's their money to do with as they please), and it's not uncommon for winners to tip 3% to 5% when all is said and done, especially if you're a regular in the room.
Also, when you get a big score, it's going to be reported to the IRS and the Franchise Tax Board, and you may be required to pay income tax on it.
After all of these deductions, the player pool may end up getting back 50% to 60% of the jackpot drop, but the uneven distribution means that some players get back only 10% or 20% of their share of the jackpot drop, while others get back 100% or 200%.
My feeling is that jackpots and high hand bonuses and other poker room promotions are for losing players—they give them something to hope for. Winning players would be better off without a jackpot drop.
Then again, we don't just play poker to win money. I've certainly enjoyed receiving a variety of promotional payouts in my poker-playing career. And we all like to fantasize about hitting a jackpot or winning the lottery. Just don't think that you're going to get all that money back eventually.