CO is a very special player. BTN is a bad TAG trying to exploit.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25/$0.50 (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 15.22 BB (VPIP: 36.70, PFR: 25.80, 3Bet Preflop: 13.25, Hands: 1,535)
Hero (BB): 112.18 BB
CO: 238.88 BB (VPIP: 78.07, PFR: 67.92, 3Bet Preflop: 53.19, Hands: 114)
BTN: 15.6 BB (VPIP: 32.95, PFR: 27.68, 3Bet Preflop: 16.97, Hands: 457)

SB posts SB 0.2 BB, Hero posts BB 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 0.7 BB) Hero has Q 8

CO raises to 1 BB, BTN raises to 1.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB, CO calls 0.5 BB

Flop: (4.7 BB, 3 players) 4 Q 9
Hero checks, CO bets 0.5 BB, BTN raises to 1 BB, Hero raises to 1.5 BB, CO calls 1 BB, BTN calls 0.5 BB

Turn: (9.2 BB, 3 players) K
Hero bets 1 BB, CO raises to 2 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO raises to 4 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, Hero calls 1 BB

River: (21.2 BB, 3 players) T
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets 1 BB


Dude just got whipsawed when the flush hit. When what looks like a relative brick fell on the river and the last aggressor checked to him, they bet into someone who has played the previous two streets super-aggressively.

Folding isn't an option. We've got the second nuts. Do we raise here?

(Preflop is certainly debatable, and I am happy to listen to people who say it is a fold.)

I'd fold preflop. I'm just not sure that you've got enough to outplay the TAG since you're out of position. What type of range do you put him on?

I can see trying to squeeze out a river check-raise to try to trap the button, but I'm far more inclined to just lead. If CO raises and button folds, you'll have the chance to 3-bet and hope it gets capped. If CO just calls, button is probably going to call with anything decent. But checking with the second nuts leads to sadness too often to risk it.

Now that button has bet the river, you should definitely check-raise. Depending on how loose his preflop action is, he could have something like QJ with J or maybe even JT for the flopped OESD and then panic because of the flush on the turn. Regardless, he's probably not folding.

Calling lets you win one bet most of the time. But since button shouldn't be bet-folding here, raising gets you one bet guaranteed but you also have the bonus of cutoff calling two sometimes, plus the possibility of bonus action (which doesn't bother me -- I don't mind if this river is capped).

I probably would have been the river. As played, I’d call but not because I think I’m losing.

Looks to me like BB may have something like AdJx. I don't understand why you didn't bet the river though.

Considering all of the available Adxd combos, I think it's somewhat misleading to call this hand the second nuts, which implies that this hand is stronger than it really is.

I'd fold preflop.

Preflop, at game speed I call but to make a good analysis, I'd have to look at BTN's BTN 3-betting range before and after CO joined, because sometimes people go nuts when "exploiting" a LAG. I definitely don't think folding is obvious, and wouldn't immediately rule out 4-betting. I guess this is more live than online but when I raise more than people think I ought to from CO, people will sometimes 3-bet me with hands not even in my opening range.

On the river, I'd probably just donk it and call if raised. But as played I'm with whoever said to call but not because we're behind.

The absolute nuts is degenerate, with eight combos (A2dd, A3dd, A5dd, A6dd, A7dd, A9dd, ATdd, and AJdd) being equally strong. If one of the villains has one of them, then they have the strongest hand on the river, i.e., the nuts; and the strongest hand on the river that they beat, i.e., the second nuts, is QdXd.

* * *

For what it's worth, CO was opening about 77%, and BTN was 3-betting a single opener at 19.2% this session. I can't quickly separate out BTN's 3-betting versus this particular villain from other villains, but there single openers who weren't CO were thin on the ground in this session.

Versus top 77% and top 19.5% ranges, Q8s has 28% equity. Neglecting the effect of position, assuming we expect the betting to be capped (which happened rather more often than not), we need more than 24.2% to play here.

So, leaving out adjusting for position, our playing range should be something like {22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q3s+, J5s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o}. That's hella wide, but it isn't any two cards.

This is true, but in this particular case, the absolute nuts is a larger fraction of the aggressor's range than it would be in on a different board, for example:

we hold QQ on the QTT 3 2 board, in which case the absolute nuts is exactly one combo.

In your example, we gotta dodge eight combos, which is not an insignificant portion of the aggressor's range.

What do you think the aggressor's range is?

8 combos is certainly bigger than 1 combo, but I'm not sure that concern is warranted.

Suppose that villain is capping all two pair combos on the turn (which isn't completely unreasonable for a normal player, so is completely reasonable given the reads/stats).

Without card removal, there are 9 combos for each possible two pair (6 of them), 6 combos for each possible set (4 of them), 16 combos for each possible straight (just the one), and some number of lower flushes. So even if he's only capping the turn with two pair+, those 8 hands don't seem significant enough to be particularly concerned. Obviously, some of these can be discounted because 94o is probably not in the range and we hold a Q, but the hand count doesn't seem to indicate enough concern to slow things down.

I'm not saying to fold. I'm challenging the use of the term 2nd nuts.

Button hasn't put in any aggression since raising the flop. Since that point he's done nothing but call call call up to the river, which checked to him on a 3 flush 4 straight board.

I think betting anything less than a straight wouldn't be good as the button.

That's fine. I didn't say anything about folding, either.

That's fine. I'm not concerned about terminology.

Thanks for clarifying that you're looking at button as the "aggressor" because in this hand there's another player that has also put in a lot of bets.

I don't think it's reasonable to think that button has more than a few ace high flushes. If he's raising A9s+, he's only got AJ/AT/A9 since the K/Q of flush are out. It seems unnecessarily pessimistic to say that you're worried about all 8 possible Axs combos.

If he's betting all his straights (which I think he should do) I'm not sure that you should be concerned enough about being beat by 3 hands to slow down.

Ok. I am.

What type of range would you have if you were button and you ended up in this spot? You tried to isolate the crazy and BB [hero] came along. You raised the flop to isolate and BB [hero] came over the top.

I think I'm good with not capping the flop with basically all of my range that I'm not folding given all the action in front of me because it gives me the ability to get more bets in on the turn if I wanted (horray for position).

I think I'd be playing on with K9 two pair or better. Maybe Q9s. I'm not sure if I'm going to be trying to isolate preflop with that one. I'm not sure I'd be able to pull the trigger on a 3-bet without a straight or better, except maybe QQx. So a coldcall at this point probably means two pair/sets.

I would bet the river, and would raise it if I checked.

I would c/r river (but would c/c if CO bet). I'd play other streets the same, but against these two maybe consider donking the flop?