Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
Although it's optimal to bluff-check-raise from the top of your folding range (because if he makes a mistake and calls too much you want to have the best chance of beating him), it could be that the size of the mistake of bluff-check-raising a hand that's just a bluff-catcher is larger than failing to bluff-check-raise at all. K2s feels more like it's in the bluff-catching range than it is the check-folding range on this board.
We can probably proof it out here, or make Bob do it for us.
Like I suspect we never have 9x or better prior to the river in this spot. A hand like QQ has too much value to be used as a call call raise on this board.
On the same token, I don't think we have 88, 77, or even good 6's in our range.
So our range entering the river is probably something like:
Pairs: 6[QJT543]s, 6[QJT]o, 55, 4[AKQ53]s, 4[AKQ]o, 33, 2[AKQJT3]s, 2[AK]o
Draws without SDV: 87@25% 75@75%, T[87]@25% (we fold turn sometimes, we raise turn sometimes), 85s
Draws with SDV: A5, A3, K5, K3s
Overcard hands: AK-AT, A8, A7, KQ-KT, K8s, K7s
If you deal a river 5, then K2s is in the 34th percentile of our range and should not be getting bluff xr. Arguably we'd wanna call down as low as like A7 here. Throwing AJs+/AQo+ into a 4 bet range doesn't change this math much.
So yeah, I think river xr is pretty spewy, and we're actually in around the middle of our range.