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just all of a sudden, after the cap, thinking that he is beat is weird to me, especially since the river is a blank.
This is our biggest difference on this hand so far, but also what I had the biggest question about.
The cap on turn, especially after another player had capped flop, narrowed his hand to NF or 2NF to me.
I wasn't folding this massive pot, but for most live players this turn cap is very very strong. I think. So I C/C river.
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However, I am still thinking his read is wrong about the TAG, but OP will have to enlighten us.
Up until this point his play could be characterized as TAG. He wasn't playing a lot of hands, but would raise in late position when the table was playing tight, or with good equity hogs in multiway pots. Look, its live 8/16 so he wasn't expert TAG, but he played pretty well and Tagish compared to most live 8/16 players.