Hello beginners and vets,

Aaron, thank you for coming up with this great idea, and your sincere desire in helping beginners improve their game. Your challenge is very thought provoking, and helped me discover errors in my poker analysis skills before posting a reply. I look forward to receiving feedback from beginning and veteran micro players! I’m sure there is plenty of room for improvement, so I’m glad to take all criticism.

Indeed this thread has been challenging. One of the biggest challenges was staying away from the thread, because I took Aaron’s comment very seriously:

Several other challenges emerged as I began formulating a response. I will include those difficulties in my response, and will be especially grateful if they are addressed. I will also attempt to identify problems with my own logic and calculations while I respond, because I’m certain the reasoning is not perfect. Additionally, this table is 5-handed, and I don’t have enough experience at SSSH. I’m glad this table is SH, because that is the part of my game that is lacking most.


1) Villain hand range: 77+, A8s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs+

This range is far less than villain’s 20% PFR stats. (It turned out to be about 12% when I stoved it.) There are a few reasons I assumed such a small PFR range for villain.

• Villain raised from UTG
• Villain capped

There is one caveat to villain’s PF cap. He has position on Hero (me), his only opponent. Therefore, I can’t conclude villain’s hand is strong enough to cap a 3-bet from the CO or BTN. If that were the case, I may assume villain’s range is a little stronger. In addition, villain frequently c-bets the flop, which makes it difficult to reduce villain’s range.

One challenge I’ve had is determining if villain actually is a TAG. Since we have a small sample of his play, he may simply be a maniac, in which case I have overestimated the strength of his hand. Maniac’s will frequently PFR and c-bet, the same attributes we assign a TAG. Lack of information about his play on big streets makes hand reading difficult.

2) EV calculations were particularly difficult for me, as I tried to be very detailed to expose errors; I was quite successful. I listed each of villain’s possible hands, the number of combinations, and the number of outs for Hero to hold the best hand at showdown. I omitted implied odds to simplify calculations. I assumed Hero would not reraise if given the opportunity. I considered how many BB are currently in the pot, and how many additional villain BBs would be in the pot for each possible line. For example, if villain raises Hero’s donk, there will be 7.25 BB. (5.25 BB + 2 BB from villain). I multiply that figure by the chance Hero will hold the best hand at showdown, to calculate Hero’s EV against that particular hand. Then I multiply the EV against that particular hand by the probability that villain is holding that hand. I then multiply the result by the probability that villain will take that particular line. This is the only objective part of my calculations (besides determining villain’s range); I highlighted the column in yellow. Is this sequence of ideas a correct way to approximate Hero's EV? I’m unsure how to include the risk of making 2 bets when Hero c/r, versus making 1 bet when donks, versus making 0 bets when villain checks behind (pot odds).

Since I was unsure about calculating Hero's EV when villain folds to a donk, and when villain checks behind Hero, I continued using the same method. Clarification on this will be very helpful! I have a feeling I may have done too many calculations. In essence, I attempted to take a weighted average of all villain’s possible hands, our probability to win at showdown, and our expected value for each line. If additional clarification is required, please don’t hesitate to ask. I hope posters will be able to suggest corrections required in my reasoning, rather than not being able to understand my intent. I used excel, so each calculation is not shown, but I hope the column headers will suffice.

Results:
Check: 6.007 BB
Donk: 5.619 BB
(Remember, this is omitting bets on the river.)






While doing the math, and estimating villain’s probability of each line, I’ve concluded that villain is much more likely to fold several hands we beat (to a donk), and bet (then call) those same hands, allowing Hero to c/r. Of course, it is more favorable to c/r any of villain’s hands containing an ace, a jack, or either flush draw. If villain calls a turn donk or c/r, he is very likely to call a river bet. I will lead the river at least 90%, and I will never b/f any river. I’ve omitted those bets from my calculations, hoping it will cancel the EV lost by foregoing an opportunity to reraise the turn.


3) Villain will often put 2 bets in against a donk or against a c/r. Villain will have a stronger hand to raise a donk than to b/c against a c/r. However, attempting a c/r may give an expensive free card. (Obviously this isn’t enlightening insight about the c/r risk.)

Factors encouraging me to check:

• Villain has shown aggression at every opportunity.
• A somewhat high turn card allows villain to continue a semi-bluff.
• I may get 2 bets from some hands that would not raise a donk.
• The strength of my hand is still disguised, increasing villain’s probability of betting.

Factors encouraging me to donk:

• Hands I dominate will often call me, or check behind, given the opportunity.
• Hands I dominate will sometimes raise me.
• I don’t want to give free cards to a straight draw or either flush draw.

At game speed, I would donk, being afraid that villain would check behind. After a lot of thought, and some calculations I’m not confident about, I would attempt a c/r. Now please, veterans, help me out!

Thanks to all who participate! It’s been very fun for me, and I hope the best is yet to come. I’m glad to finally be able to join the discussion!


nsw

Sorry, I posted the same pic twice. The donk chart is shown below. (This was my first time using imageshack. )

I put this guy on the following range PF: 99+, A10+, KJs+. I don't play short-handed so this may be a pretty tight range for this kind of table. Enlighten me.

I don't think his range on the other streets can be narrowed as he c-bets frequently and could be doing that with any hand in his range.

Since this guy c-bets frequently I am wondering what assumptions we can make by his failure to C/R? Probably none since he is prolly betting out anyway. I know nothing new about his range from his c-bet. I am drawing dead to AA and am way behind to JJ but odds are slim that with two Aces, Jacks out he has the other two. Otherwise I am way ahead of other pocket pairs in his range.

I am ahead of his A10+ except I chop AJ. As for KJs+ I am ahead of most of that too EXCEPT KQs and I am ahead here 75-25. In fact that is the only hand I really need to worry about besides the long shot AA,JJ.

This being said I have to ask whether he check behind if I check? What does he likely think of my play? If he is multi-tabling he really hasn't had a lot of time to analyze it. He knows, though, I have been with him all the way so I do have something. If he is busy with other tables he may just insta-check behind, because he doesn't have time to do the work to see what I have. I know that sng multitablers are robotic in later stages because they play so many tables they need auto responses for various situation. Also if we check we give him a free card if he does have two spades in his hand

Therefore I think we have to bet out here. Mainly I do not want to give a free card to a spade draw.

A case can be made to C/R because the only hands I have to worry about are KQ, KJs and I am ahead of those and every other hand in his range. That said I think I am still betting. I need to know more about this guys hand and I need to know it now plus I am shy about giving a free card.

This has been a helpful exercise. Thanks for posting.

This is a hand-counting exercise. You shouldn't need to guess at this number. See some of the other posts to get a sense of this technique.

Edit: Unless you mean 2:1 favorite as an equity value, but you can use PokerStove to get an exact equity value in this situation.

Very long for a first post.

It is unusual for a maniac (in my mind, a player who plays most of his hands, and most of them for a raise) to have 25/20-like stats, even after a relatively short period. You might say that it's possible for him to be LAGTAG, but maniacs just play too many hands for his VPIP to drop down to 25.

It looks correct.

What would stop you from betting the river?

Maybe I was too liberal with the term maniac. I agree with your description. In B&M games I play, I will often run into a player with only about 25% VP$IP, but they tend to vastly over-value their hands. For example, they would bet and raise on all streets in a hand like this with A2o+, and JTo+ (on this board). I guess this is what you describe as a LAGTAG? (I need to add that to my vocabulary. )


What I meant was, if I'm not reraised on the turn, I will lead the river nearly 90% of the time. If I am reraised on the turn, I would c/c any K, Q, T, 8, 6 or . Is c/c a river 2 too timid? If I'm not reraised on the turn, I would only c/c a K or Q, and lead the rest. I guess 8 cards out of 46 is more like 17% than 10%...

The term LAGTAG is often used among the short-handed players, and it describes players who are pretty aggressive preflop (I think something like 30/20), but and whose postflop game is pretty solid. I guess what you're describing is more like LAGLAG.

What are you doing with the rest of the hands? Donking? You might want to think through that line a little bit.

Are you check-calling because you fear you've been outdrawn? What percent of the time are you actually outdrawn there (look at the hand ranges)? How often does villain bet there if he doesn't draw out to two pair or a set? How often does he check behind?

grunch

Im no 6max player and new to FL, beat 10nl and 25nl reasonably tho but i suck

I think maybe JJ+ / AKs due to him capping PF, but that might be closer to full ring hands.

I think I would c/c the turn, hopefully he has hit, but not as hard as us and c/c might make him think we are on for the flush draw.

If a spade comes on river we can bet and hope he calls due to large pot. If it doesnt maybe go for a check expecting him to bet thinking we missed our flush. Although saying that I dont see what cards he can put us on PF that would flop the flush draw.

g:

Not really familiar w/ 6-max as I play FR, yada yada, disclaimer... meh. Thick skin on, lemme have it.

Slightly discount his UTG raising range due to the cap. However, this is hardly TT+, and AK here as he has position and it's 6-max. We'll throw out some king hands and QJs.

So, here we go: 99+, KQo+, KJs.

On the turn we're way way ahead of his range. For fun, let's throw in 88 just because without it (or with it for that matter) it's not close. First time I've done this, so tell me where I got it wrong!

We're behind:
AA(1)
88(3)
JJ(1) = 5 combos.

We're ahead of:
KK(6), QQ(6), TT(6), 99(6), AK(8)... a heck of a lot of hands.

So, let's see what will get the most money into this pot. First, assumptions: the potsize is constant therefore can be ignored. We're just counting turn bets here. Also, we aren't really going to take the future into consideration when we're doing EV calcs on a turn play. Also as the AJ combos are a chop, we'll just not consider them at all.

Donking: We've disguised our hand by underplaying our ace. Villain is likely to see the donk as hitting the jack and we'll assume he'll act accordingly (we have no read, so he has no read, we're playing this hand straight up). We'll further assume that as our hand is disguised (and we're ahead of his range) we'll be 3-betting every time he raises (with this big of an edge that's kinda, LDO), he'll raise our donk bet every time he can beat a pair of jacks (admittedly huge assumption), and he'll cap us when he has us smoked (again LDO). To make it a little easier, we'll assume he won't cap when he's behind but will call to the river, and we'll call the cap when behind. (I'm making all these assumptions because I want to crank this out by hand and will make similar assumptions for check-raising). This means, he'll fold TT, and 99, and KQ as well. He'll raise and call with AK, AQ, KK, QQ which we beat, and raise and cap AA, JJ, and 88 which have us smoked.

Therefore:
He folds KQ(24), TT(6), 99(6) = 36 times where we win 0 bets by donking.
He raises and calls a 3! AK(8), AQ(8), KK(6), QQ(6) = 28 times where we win 3 bets.
He raises and caps AA(1), JJ(1), 88(3) = 5 times where we lose 4 bets.

Thus 0*36 + 3*28 - 4*5 = 64bets/69 cases = EV +.927BB/hand.

The case for check raising: Making assumptions here are slightly more difficult than the donk bet. How often does villain c-bet the turn with KQ? Let's assume he c-bets the two combos that give him flush draws and checks behind (takes the free card with his gutshot) on the rest. Further he will bet all his other hands as well. To make the analysis fair, we'll again assume he folds to our checkraise those times he thinks he has two outs (TT, 99), calls those times he has the hands that we're ahead of, and raises the hands that beat us. As before, if he 3s we call.

Thus he checks behind KQ(24-2=22) = 22 times we win 0 bets by checkraising.
He bets and folds TT(6), 99(6) = 12 times we win 1 bet by checkraising.
He bets and calls KQ(2), AK(8), AQ(8), KK(6), QQ(6) = 30 times we win 2 bets by checkraising.
He bets and 3-bets AA(1), JJ(1), 88(3) = 5 times we lose 3 bets.

Therefore: 0*22 + 1*12 + 2*30 - 3*5 = 57bets/69 cases = .826BB/hand.

As you can see, these two plays are somewhat close in value. However, due to our deception on the flop, donking out seems to (on the surface at least) have the greater expectation.

In real life however, sometime the villain raises when he's behind, sometimes he calls when ahead... he doesn't really know what we have. Sometimes villains pay off even a check-raise on a double two-flush board with 99 and TT. Sometimes he'll fold QQ+ suspecting a slowplay.

The bottom line though, is that in my experience, if you're being deceptive (check calling an ace on the flop with AJ is being pretty deceptive, nitty, or fishy depending--actually it's prolly solid max/min play) it's best to continue being such. Donking the turn would tend to confuse villains more than check-raising which turns your hand face up and will cause more folds of hands you want to call. TAG multi-tabler could find himself (especially vs. an unknown) going "WTF, he donks the turn, a jack? meh, let's get to showdown cheap" making your donk play seem terrible, or maybe he says to himself (as assumed) "jack no good buddy, I has the Ace (or KK, QQ, etc.) I raise" I guess this type of situation is why reads are so damn important!

IRL I really doubt I donk this much against a TAG, but if he's really aggressive postflop, I prolly would.

Sorry for double post >< Stupid comp.

First I'd check how we've been playing so far while he was at the table. I know he can't pay much attention since he's multi-tabling but he might have poker tracker giving him some of our stats. If we've been in a lot of pots just to a good streak of cards while he was here I'd def bet it. He probably would put us on trying to take it down or an ace, but I think he's got AKs and liked what he saw on the flop. Assuming he isn't holding a pocket pair our EV is really strong on this hand.

Back to his hand, I think it has to be AKs or a big pocket pair, he went high pre flop and bet at the flop. Either he's holding an ace with a good kicker or he has QQ/KK, maybe TT, and was trying to see if we'd raise with an ace.

I think in the end the bet is the right play because it'll also give us information. If he raises I would call to showdown in fear of the set, obviously not though if the river were an ace or a jack.

You asked for it...
As requested, I haven't read any responses yet. One caveat: I play mostly FR, so my 6max skills are weak.
1) 25/20 tells me something along the lines of AA-55, AK-A6s, AK-A8o, any 2 9 or higher for the first PFR. The cap narrows it down to AA-TT, AK-AJs, AK-AQo, KQs IMO. (60 hands total, because I have both an A and a J) Again, I'm relatively new to this.
2) The flop bet tells us nothing; I might have c/r the flop and led the turn if called, while calling down if 3-bet. Villain is perhaps aggressive enough to 3-bet KK-JJ on the flop, right?
As played, only AA, JJ, 88, and 66 beat us here. 88 *might* cap PF, but doubtful, and I don't think 66 does at all.
Another thing I don't know about your standard TAG: is he willing to b/f the turn or river? If he just can't lay down KK or something, I'd c/r. If he can get away from a decent hand, I'd more likely b/3 on the turn and b/c river.
Assuming my ranges are right, and that he'll bet 100% if I check the turn, and call the raise with AA, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ, and KQ, while raising with any hand that beats me if I bet the turn and calling with any hand I beat:

Here are my components for the EV calculation (the A and J on board knock his total hand combos down to 48):
First, for donking:
2BB * (18/48) * (43/45)
-3BB * (18/48) * (2/45)
I win 2BB when he has KK, QQ, or TT (18 combos total) and calls down while not spiking trips, and lose 3 BB when he does hit (he raises turn and I call down).
2BB * (18/48) * (42/45)
-3BB * (18/48) * (3/45)
I win 2BB when he has AK, AQ, any AKo or AQo and doesn't hit a K or Q on the river (3 outs), and lose 3BB when he does hit (he raises turn and I call down).
3.5BB * (2/48) * (36/45)
-3BB * (2/48) * (9/45)
When he has AK or AQ, he'll probably raise my turn donk. I'd then 3bet, and I'll assume he calls that. Then he'll either fold or call a blank on the river, so I call that +3.5BB. I lose 3BB (1 on turn, 2 on river) if he hits his flush.
-3BB * (1/48) * (45/45)
I lose 3BB when he has AA.
-3BB * (1/48) * (43/45)
6BB * (1/48) * (2/45)
I usually lose 3BB when he has JJ, but if I spike an A on the river, I'll call the turn raise and probably get it capped on the river.
0BB * (2/48) * (45/45)
He'll fold KQ or KQ to a turn donk.
1BB * (2/48) * (33/45)
-3BB * (2/48) * (12/45)
With KQ or KQ, he has 12 outs to a flush or straight on the river. He'll fold the river if he doesn't hit.
0BB * (4/48) * (45/45)
We tie when he has AJo.
All of this adds up to +91/72BB = +1.264BB for donking.

The c/r stuff is harder because I have to assign probabilities that he'll 3bet with a worse hand than ours and whether or not he'll call the river.
1BB * (18/48) * (45/45) * 50%
2BB * (18/48) * (43/45) * 50%
-4BB * (18/48) * (2/45) * 50%
I'll assume he'll call our c/r with KK, QQ, or TT 50% of the time, and fold UI on the river. We lose 2BB on turn and river if he spikes trips.
5BB * (18/48) * (42/45) * 75%
-6BB (18/48) * (3/45) * 75%
3BB * (18/48) * (42/45) * 25%
-4BB (18/48) * (3/45) * 25%
I'll assume he 3-bets 75% of the time with any AK or AQ except the flush draws (and we cap/lead), and calls the c/r (and calls the river) the other 25%.
5BB * (2/48) * (36/45)
-6BB * (2/48) * (9/45)
I'll assume he 3-bets AK and AQ 100% (and we cap/lead). We lose 2 on the river if he hits his flush.
-6BB * (1/48) * (45/45)
I'm cap/leading 100% here, so we lose 6BB when he has AA.
-6BB * (1/48) * (43/45)
8BB * (1/48) * (2/45)
Again, -6BB if he has JJ, but both streets will get capped if I spike an A.
1BB * (2/48) * (45/45)
He'll fold KQs (no flush draw) 100%; the odds still aren't there to call for the gutshot (only 8:1 once I c/r him on the turn).
2BB * (2/48) * (33/45)
-4BB * (2/48) * (12/45)
He'll fold KQs (flush draw) on the river UI after calling the turn c/r, and I lose 2BB on turn and river if he hits.
0BB * (4/48) * (45/45)
Again, tie when he has AJo.
This makes +2039/1080BB = +1.888BB for check-raising.

3) With such a big disparity, it would take some serious mis-alignment of the stars for me to donk instead of taking the check-raise. Perhaps a more interesting case would have been if the J on the turn was a T instead.
PF 3-bet is fine by me, especially against a multi-tabler. UTG is
like the HJ seat in 6max.

It's also why this is an interesting case to analyze. I place a pretty big emphasis on identifying the types of mistakes other players make, and then trying to capitalize on their errors by putting them in position to make those mistakes (if the cards give me such opportunities).

The only thing I would point out is that check-calling the flop isn't really intended to be a "deceptive" play. It's the WA/WB line where if I check-raise, I give him the chance to fold out his worse hands like KK-JJ, he will never fold a better hand (AQ/AK), and whoever is in front now is highly likely to be in front at showdown.

Your reasoning is "I'll bet to find out if he has a set" but your conclusion is "I'll call down." This is no good.

.
First off I want to say that I started playing poker about three weeks ago and I'm also very new to this forum so I don't understand a few things in your post such as the word "donk" when used as a verb or EV calculations. I have a very basic idea of pot odds but I don't know anything too complex or how to calculate EV.


When someone raises on the flop like that in early position, I'd say that he has either AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs, and probably AKo, AJs, or AQs. On the flop, the ace is an over card (if that's how the term is used correctly) to his KK, QQ, and JJ. So I would reasonably rule out against those hands. But since there's only two people in on the flop I don't know if the strategy is different. Maybe it's ok to bet here with an over card on the board but I definitely wouldn't so I would rule out JJ, KK and QQ.

That leaves AKo, AKs, AQs, AJs, or AA! I don't know how I would distinguish between these by the flop play.

On the turn, hero has two pair. Like I said before, I don't know what donk means. It must mean bet since fold wouldn't make sense. So bet or check-raise?

Well, he could be on a flush draw with AKs, AQs, or AJs. I don't know if AJs is appropriate here, probably not, so I'm leaning towards AKs, or AQs if he's on a flush draw. There is no straight draw.

Let me try and calculate pot odds here for his flush draw. I'm not sure of the proper way to do this or if it would even affect anything but I will do it anyway.

So he has seen six cards of the 52. So 46 unseen cards. There are 9 outs for the flush draw. So 37 cards make him lose the flush draw and 9 makes him win. That makes him about a 4:1 underdog. There is $5.25 in the pot if I check. If he bets, he's getting 5:1 pot odds for his money. It would be correct for him to bet.

Hmmm ok besides the flush, he could also have a set. Since he opened the flop (is that the term?) with an ace on the board, he probably doesn't have JJ. If he has a set its aces but I doubt that just because I already see two aces.

I'm still lost as to what hands he could have. I'm gonna say AA is least likely. He could have AKo, which would be good for me. If he had AKs and on a flush draw, then idk.

I'm just not sure at all what would be the definite move here. I hope he's not on a flush draw, but then again I kind of hope he is and 3-bets the turn and ends up drawing dead so I get paid with my two pair. If he has a set, well then I'm toast. If he has a set, I really wouldn't know, and would rather put him on a flush draw.

I would check-raise the turn because I think he has AK, or AKs most likely.

I don't know what "An analysis of both lines" means. I also don't understand how to factor in the "multitable TAG." Also, what does "25/20" mean?

Wow I just skimmed through the thread and I am amazed. It seems like everyone wrote huge essays on this topic. I don't know what your definition of a beginner is but if all these people are beginners then I must be light years away from improving my game.

hi bigDee, welcome, and yes, you are more beginner than them

internet poker has its own lingo and special tools and stuff that we are all used to. i would say start playing some play money games online, or some 2/4 cent games, and post hands here that you are unsure about. general questions go in the NC thread.

good luck

Grunch

First before any analysis I see a possible mistake in the hand history. It lists the game as 6 players (unless it means the table? I thought that line was actually how many people are dealt in) but the hand history only shows 5.

1) A hand range for villain

Villain is a standard multi-tabling TAG and raises UTG, it folds to the big blind who reraises, and the villain caps.

This screams enormous strength, I am putting him on a very narrow range. If I had 3 bet him on the button, if he had opened in the CO I would not make this range so strong.

heavily weighted: JJ+ and AK
lightly weighted: TT and AQ
very lightly weighted: 99 and 88

I'll give him:

1 AA
6 KK
6 QQ
1 JJ
8 AK
3 TT
4 AQ
1 99
.5 88

that's the range I'm giving him.

2) An analysis of both lines (EV calculations are good)

According to my range, there is a ~8% chance he us beat. It is actually 8.7 ish but I rounded down for the the fact that I think jacks are a little less likely to capping than other things, plus we have about a 4% chance to outdraw to a bigger boat against this range.

Furthermore, there is about a 56% chance in my weighted that he has a pair and doesn't like his hand. (KK, QQ, TT, 99)

This leaves about a 36% chance that he has a hand he likes that we beat.

Let's look at EV for each situation now for donking and C/R'ing, and see what is best.

(-5 BB) Donking if we're beat: We get raised, in this case I think we'd probably 3 bet and get capped on and have to pay off. I'd despise the cap but I'd feel the need to call down.

(-4 BB) C/Ring if we're beat: He 3 bets (or smooth calls and raises the river) in each case I'm not putting in another raise as I just don't think a standard multitabling tag is going to put in that many raises with one pair in this spot.

(+2 BB) Donking if he doesn't like his hand: He probably calls down and hates it.

(+1.5 BB) C/Ring if he doesn't like his hand. He probably checks behind a lot and calls a river bet., and folds to a C/R sometimes. Sometimes he'll 2 out us but EV wise this actually helps us since we'll likely only be putting in 2 bets after he checks behind and raises river on a K/Q/T) Once in a while he'll bet and call down the C/R)

(+3.25 BB) Donking if he does like his hand, he'll probably raise and call down our 3 bet. Othertimes he'll just call down finding our line suspicious.

(+3 BB) C/R if he likes his hand, he'll probably call down after getting C/R'd.

Donking = (.08 * -5) + (.56 * 2) + (.36 * 4) -.4 + 1.12 + 1.17 = +1.89 EV
C/R = (.08 * -4) + (.56 * 1.5) + (.36 * 3) -.32 + .84 + 1.08 = +1.6 EV

I suspected donking was a better play intuitively based on what I imagined his range was, and when I wrote down his range and guessed at action it came out about what I expected.

Once in a while he'll show up with KQ or some other double face card hand or small pair, but I estimated this to be a fairly small part of his range given the enormous strength of his preflop play. Without doing detailed math I suspect donking and checking have similar value against what I perceive to be this tiny range.

3) A list of factors that might influence your decision, and whether those factors make you more or less inclined to play the way you have chosen. In particular, how varying the playing tendencies of the multitabling TAG affects your thinking.

If there's much donking going on at the table. For example I played against a guy earlier that donked a lot with a wide range. In this case I think donking is even better since he's likely been getting donked weakly and may go berserk and raise less than aces.

Also there's some multitabling TAGs that just don't know when to check behind, they'd be betting any 2 in this spot and I am for sure C/Ring against them. ((These are usually the same people that cbet any 2 cards 100% of the time even into a field of like 80 villains on a QJ9 board.))

I have no experience playing shorthanded. From what I have read you should play more hands in a shorthanded game. With that in mind.

1) I would put villians range at 10 10+, AJ+, AJs+, KQs.

2) I am not 100% sure what you mean by "analysis of both lines" since we are new can you explain what you mean by this and what exactly should we be plugging in when we do the ev calculations and how does it affect our play up until the turn ?? Since this is geared to new posters, I think some (me) may not be sure how to use the calculations to inform our decisions during a hand.

3) factors that might influence my decision.
after the flop he could have 3 hands that have me beat.. AA, AK, AQ. I am not worried about him having 66 or 88.

I am not 100% sure what you mean when you say "hero donks" not sure what you are asking.

I would bet on the turn. I would not dare check and have him check behind me with AK,AQ,AJ of spades or diamonds and peel a spade or diamond off on the river. I would fear giving him a free card so when the jack hits, I am betting.

As far as the playing tendencies of a multitabling TAG. Does it matter up to the turn what his tendencies are ?? if so how and why ??

*Grunch*

First of all, thanks for this post, I think it's a great idea and very helpful.

I think a donk is the right line to take here. Villain hand range AK, AA-TT IMO, so it is much more likely that he has a pair lower than the ace.

So IMO, he's going to check behind quite a few times with a scared pocket pair, especially if he's multitabling, as he doesn't gain much from betting-he's most likely to get called only by a better hand most of the time(unless he has AK of course or AA), and it is unlikely for him to try and protect against the flush draw, as this is a HU situation so it is quite unlikely that you have the flush draw.

Also, if you donk here on a J, this is going to look like a bizzare play to him, so he might still raise you with a hand that is KK-TT, especially if he's multitabling as he will lean towards aggression. Then you can cap and just hope to hell that he doesn't have AA.

On the PF 3 bet; against a multitabling TAG, I think you are ahead of his range to do this, but it also gives you control of the pot most of the time when you are not in this best of situations: OOP against a TAG

grunching

check/call and donk river.

I'm figuring there are more hands in villans range that will bet the turn, often fold to a raise and check behind on the river.

So, I see hands like KK/QQ/TT betting the turn, folding to a raise and checking behind on the river (if we take the check/raise line). I also see them more likely to call a river donk than a turn check/raise. So worst case here is we get the same number of bets as we would have if check/raised and the folded. Best case is we get one more bet when we check/call -> donk and they go "uhh, wtf?!" and call.

Sure, we forgo a bet vs hands like AK, but there are more KK/QQ/TT hands in his range than AK.

Now I'll go read this stupidly long thread...

I'm not new per se, but boy am I rusty at this poker thing.

With that jack coming off the turn we are about a 6:1 favorite in the hand. Regardless of the the TAGs raising standards from UTG. if he only raises the top 5% or he would raise his whole range.

That's equity city. We want to just get as much money in the pot as possible.

Line one Bet the turn, bet the river.
Villian calls with a flush draw (~%15 chance)
Villain calls with GPGK. (~40%)
Villain raises trips and two pair.(~9%)
Villain folds with a wiff. (~36%)

Villain Calls 2 bets and we win about 55% of the time.
When villian raises we are beat about 30% of the time, so we 3 bet can call if villian caps.

(.15 * 1) + (.4 * 2) + (.09 * .3 * -3) + (.09 * .7 * 3) = 0.567

Line two CR the turn, bet the river.

Villain checks behind ~36% of the time with a whif or with the flush draw. (and only calls a river bet with a flush).
Villain fires another barrel with a whiff about 15% of the time.
Villain bets GPGK and folds to the raise about 20%
Villain bets GPGK and calls a raise about 20%
Villain re-raises with trips and two pair and bets the river which we call 9% ( 2.7% good, 6.3% bad)

(.36 * .25 * -1) + (.15 * 2) + (.2 * 1) + (.2 * 2) + (.09 * .3 * -2) + (.09 * .7 * 2) = 0.882


Line 3 call the turn, raise the river.

Villain checks behind ~36% of the time with a whif or with the flush draw. (getting the free card and making it by the river 9%)
Villain fires another barrel with a whiff about 15% and calls the river.
Villain bets GPGK about 40% and bets the river and pays off 50% of the time.
trips and two pair 9% ( 2.7% good, 6.3% bad)

(.09 * -1)+(.15 * 2)+(.4 * 1)+(.2 * 1)+(.027 * -2)+(.063 * 2) = 0.792



So if my math isn't serious off (it often is saddly). However, I don't have a ton of faith in my predictions for what a TAG villain with do at 6-max.

CR > raise the river > bet out.

Bump

Bump. I hope this thread will generate more response from beginners and veterans. I’ve been working on my river analysis for a while, as Aaron has presented additional challenges. Thank you very much for your assistance!


Good point. It’s clear I need help on big street play. When reraised on the turn, I can adjust the probability of various villain holdings based on his line. I will estimate my expectation for donking and c/c a 5 on the river. The action ensues:

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with A J
UTG raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps!, Hero calls

Flop: (8.5 SB) 8 A 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls

Turn: (5.25 BB) J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls

River: (11.25 BB) 5 (2 players)
Hero compares a donk to a c/c…

I previously estimated the probability that villain will reraise the turn. I use the same probabilities when calculating a weighted average of expectation on the river. In these spreadsheets, I omit the ‘outs’ column, since this is the last card. I add an estimation that villain will take each line on the river. For example, if villain has KK, I estimate that he will check behind me on the river 75% of the time. In addition there are 6 combinations of KK, and I estimated villain has 96 hands in his range. Not all hands are equally likely, in part due to Bayes’ Theorem. Also, the probabilities of certain hands are adjusted based on the line villain takes. For example, if villain has KK, my expectation is 100% of the pot (11.25 if I check, and he checks). (note: I discovered an error in my first response, where I neglected the fact that my expectation is 100% of the pot when villain folds.) However, villain has KK only 6/96 times, and he will reraise me on the turn only 20% of the time. In addition, he will check behind me on the river 75% of the time. Therefore, if he checks behind me on the river, a portion of my weighted expectation is:

11.25 x 6/96 x 20% x 75% = .105 (this quantifies my EV, considering the chance that villain has KK when taking this line)

My analysis for a c/c when reraised on the turn is as follows:




My analysis for a donk when reraised on the turn is as follows:




These results surprised me. First of all, if reraised on the turn, my expectation is reduced considerably, even with a board that missed all draws in villain’s range. I was most surprised that, at first glance, it appears that donking the river is still best when reraised on the turn. Note that I always call a reraise on this river. Aaron’s question suggests that donking any river is bad when reraised on the turn. When I think of these two concepts together, it seems checking the river is best, even with 0.056 BB lower expectation. That is, since my expectation is greatly reduced against a turn reraise, villain likely has a set. If I donk, villain will raise with any set, and my expectation becomes negative (I have 1.817 BB EV when donking, and a raise will cost 2 BB). Additionally, many hands I beat won’t call a bet, though villain may bet if checked to, and my expectation remains positive. Also, when two mutually exclusive options run close in expectation, I prefer lower standard deviation. A c/c is best against a turn reraise.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aaron W.

Quote:

Originally Posted by non-self-weighter

If I'm not reraised on the turn, I would only c/c a K or Q, and lead the rest. I guess 8 cards out of 46 is more like 17% than 10%.

Are you check-calling because you fear you've been outdrawn? What percent of the time are you actually outdrawn there (look at the hand ranges)? How often does villain bet there if he doesn't draw out to two pair or a set? How often does he check behind?

I assume a river card that completes the many draws that may be against me. The action ensues:

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with A J
UTG raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps!, Hero calls

Flop: (8.5 SB) 8 A 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls

Turn: (5.25 BB) J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls

River: (9.25 BB) Q (2 players)
Hero compares leading to a c/c…

Should I c/c or lead this river that completes many villain hands? When villain takes this line, how likely is this card to help him? I estimate my expectation below.

My analysis for a c/c when not reraised on the turn is as follows:




My analysis for a leading the river when not reraised on the turn is as follows:




These results were not as surprising as when I am reraised on the turn. When checked to, villain is not likely to bet many hands that I beat, and he will always bet hands that beat me. When I lead, will rarely fold and rarely raise with hands that I beat. However, I did not anticipate my river expectation to be so low when villain b/c the turn. Have I made some fundamental mistake in my analysis? In any case, leading the river when villain b/c the turn seems best, even with a scare card.


It seems as though my expectation is lower in these scenarios I’ve analyzed. This is due to the fact that much of my expectation on the turn is derived from the possibility that villain will not b/rr or b/c. That is, a lot of my expectation is derived when villain b/f the turn, or checks behind with a hand I already beat. Though I’m able to estimate probabilities of various villain lines and my expectation, most of my initial conclusions were inconsistent. This shows how much my decisions at game speed may vary from the correct play, which I am capable of deducing. How long did it take you to consistently make the correct decisions in game?


nsw

I know he is a multi-tabler, for me that means he is much more inclined to me more autonomous in his place than someone who is only on a couple of tables. Given teh fact that he doesn't open-limp, I can't trust the UTG raise as tight as it might be from someone else.

Pre:
Initially, I'd believe that his opening range is 77+ (unless I know he will play smaller pps), AJs+, AJo+ (With perhaps a AT at times), with some other suited broadways depending upon the type of player he is.

The cap doesn't worry me as much as it might. TT+, AQs, AKo is probably his capping range but not always.

Flop:
The check-call, for me, is a standard reaction to the flop and pre-flop actions. The ace doesn't really change anything. If villain has A-A then I've been in trouble from the get go, same with being against A-K and A-Q. There's a potential flush-draw out there but since it's just Hero and villain there'd be no point in trying to protect the TP.

Turn:
The money card hits. Now it's either a win or bust hand (with being potentially against trips or TPTK). I know villain is going to bet out on the turn so I have to decide what's the best way of getting the money in the middle (Against an unknown it'll be very hard to get away from Top-Two on that board).

I bet, taking the lead. This causes him to consider that the Jack has hit me. Given the action pre, it would allow someone who follows what has happened to narrow my hand to almost exactly top-two. If he is in love with his hand, he might raise (and indeed probably would) but could he call a 3-bet? I think donking and 3-betting would be too big of a move considering how the flop was handled. He could also turn around and just call the donk and check-call the river (if I bet out).

Potential earnings is limited by him shutting down.

If I check-raise however, this gives a much more "huh?" moment to the hand. 90% of the time he is going to bet again, raising him can give him two thoughts. 1 - the Jack hit me huge 2 - I'm testing him to make sure he doesn't run me over. Generally I think with AK/AQ there'll be a 3-bet on his end which I would call. I think capping the turn means that only trips SHOULD call me.

I've come across a number of players who refuse to really bet out unless they've got two-pair+, and generally trips/set+. Otherwise they check-call down. If this player is one of those who shuts down against aggression without the nuts then I'll be check-raising him rather than donking. If he will push his (somewhat) smaller holdings all the way (like I'm prone to do) then I'd consider donking either the turn or the river knowing that he could push bottom two or just TPTK too far.

A.