Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
IMHO the money coming back into the table is not what offsets the rake - it's the relative skill level. Also, I don't necessarily think we have to beat the game for >17BB/100 in SoJ's example because we're going to win, on average, far fewer that 1/9 of the pots.
To look at it a different way, suppose that out of a 100-hand sample we play 20 hands (possibly including the blinds). Let's say we win 8 and lose 12. To simplify the math, let's say the 8 pots we won were all between $40 and $48 so the rake was $4 plus $1BBJ and $1 tip, so the pots were between 10 and 12BB with an average rake of 3. Let's say hero contributed 3.5BB to those pots. Let's say we lost an average of 2BB per hand on the 12 hands we lost.
In that case the pots totalled between 80 and 96BB, we contributed 28BB of that, we had 24BB taken away by rake and 24BB taken away in hands we played and lost. That's a net profit of 4BB-20BB in 100 hands. Not too shabby.
Obviously I pulled these numbers out of my ass, but I don't think they're too far off from reality. At a table where 5 people put in 2 bets pre (i.e. 4 callers, a raiser, all limpers call), 3 people put in a small bet on the flop, 2 people put in a big bet on the turn and 2 people put a big bet into the pot on the river (all of those "people counts" include hero), that's 10.5BB in the pot.
You will win at every stake with just about any kind of rake structure if you win 40% of the hands you play.
Even AA doesn't have that kind of equity in a pot that goes off 4+ ways.
Assuming an average pot of $45 with a generous 4+1 rake w/ $1 tip, 3.5 BB invested when winning, 2 BB invested when losing:
45 - 6 = 39 per pot won, - 14 invested = 25 profit
25 x 8 = 200 profit
20% equity: -8 when losing x 32 = -256 = -$56 overall
25% equity: -8 when losing x 24 = -192 = +$8 overall
Last edited by SetofJacks; 09-01-2018 at 02:13 AM.