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Originally Posted by greyhawke54
Hit the hourly hand promo, for $400 more. Total for the night $530 to the good. Total bank roll is now up to $1190.
(snip)
Can you use it to build a bankroll? I think yes, I think it will take a while, I also think you have to figure that promotions will be a part of this.
So 1/3 of your current BR is a single promo payout? If they're common and fairly random, you could consider that rakeback. I'm concerned about drawing conclusions about beatability of a game in a small sample with so much of your total roll in a single event.
Still, avoiding variance as a big favorite (as Aaron explained) seems strange in a game where one of the biggest components is bonus payout rake. You've accepted the bonus side of things as standard, your WR would improve if you accepted the poker side as well.
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Of note as far as the beatability of these games. I am thinking that it is only possible if you have 1 maybe 2 maybe, decent winning players per table. The rake is just to much to allow much more.
This is normal. Games have to be high stakes to have more than 1 or 2 consistent long-term winners, without some very special losers. Given the rake in small stakes, the house is always a crushing winner. Others? Depends.
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I am still somewhat more passive playing drawing hands even bigger premiums like AK AQ, ect. I dont tend to raise them very often preflop. I realize I am missing some value here, but I have noticed my variance has dropped considerably.
You lack the sample size to know this well. The issue is that lowering variance while lowering your win rate is pretty likely to increase your risk of ruin. Your profit in poker doesn't come from getting good hands, because everyone at the table does that. Your profit comes from making more money from your good hands than they do. (Also from losing less from your bad ones, usually by folding ones they play.) "Reducing variance" by not raising premium hands is what every tight old man does in these stakes. They don't win. So emulating losers? There are technical arguments to be made about less premium hands and less premium situations, but failing to press big edges means you are giving up your edge as a winning player.