Quote:
Originally Posted by killians3
This guy is capable of that play. He 3 bet me OTB with KTs previously.
OK, but let's talk about monsters under the bed.
Years ago when I was playing Limit Omaha Hi-Low, I'd go into check-call mode with the top full house after one raise. Example: The board is KT36T, I'd bet the river with KKxx, someone would raise, and I would just call, fearing they had quads. Time after time they were raising me with something less than quads, and I was leaving money on the table. I finally figured out that if only one combo beat me, I shouldn't shut down after just one raise. I was being overly fearful of that one combo—that was seeing monsters under the bed.
So I forced myself to reraise in those situations. It was hard to do at first, and some small percentage of the time, I'm going to be wrong and look like an idiot. But reraising is the right play.
A few nights ago, playing $6/$12 Limit Hold'em, I made a flush on the river with Qd9d with the Ad on the board. So I had the second nuts. I bet and was raised by the laggiest player at the table. I reraised him—knowing full well that he could have the nuts but probably didn't. He immediately reacted in a way that made it clear he wished he hadn't raised, but he also made a reluctant call. He never showed. I gave him credit for having a smaller flush, though he might've made an ambitious value-raise with two pair, or he might've tried to use the scare card (a third diamond) to turn one pair into a bluff. My point is that his range of raising hands in this spot is much, much wider than just the nuts.
In your hand, the presence of the BB does add a wrinkle, especially when he cold-calls two bets on the turn. That should give one pause—and I did see your reply in the thread about a fourth club hitting the river in a massively multiway pot. I still feel that BB's lack of aggression throughout the hand is an indication that he's not that strong. But it's easy to say this as an armchair quarterback.
Poker is a game of limited information. In the heat of the moment, we make assumptions and reads and consider probabilities and similar situations we've encountered, and we make the best decisions we can. Sometimes we're wrong; that's just part of the game.