Villain is in Cutoff. He's pretty solid (for Commerce) and his preflop raising range is tight - AQs+ JJ+. Everyone else it typical Commerce LP.

Here is in the BB with 74. UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Cutoff raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

6 to the flop for 12sb - 569
sb checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, Cutoff raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

5 to the turn for 11bb - 5
sb checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, Cutoff bets, Button calls, SB calls, Hero raises...

FWIW - MP2 had already picked up his cards to toss them, so I only cared about Cutoff, Button, and SB. Can I make this raise for value, or is this spew?

spew but its close. cant say i wouldnt do it once in awhile.

I like this line, if you figure they all call, you're adding 32 bucks to the pot (including yourself) on the turn. Which IMO isnt terrible unless obviously you can be drawing dead here, but that is player dependant/read dependant. I wouldn't make this play ALL the time, but its a good mix up to keep your image unpredictable. Adding 8 BBs to the pot can't be terrible here if you think all your outs are live. I think I c/f the river tho on a blank. No point in making a play, then it becomes purely a spew.

Just thinking this through... You are behind - with what, 15 outs? But only the straight flush outs are clean. Even so, with 3 callers, I think there is equity in your c/r because odds are all 3 will call. You can't say the same about a river c/r.

Assume that all my out are clean except for 9s - based on the other players body language I'm 95% sure that any 3, 8, or non-9 spade makes me a winner. I put the raiser on JJ+ and the other players on T9 - A9

Why no 3bet on the flop, don't we have a fairly big equity advantage here against 4 opponents?

GcluelessnoobG

Because I don't want to push anyone out of the pot. MP facing 2 bets would probably fold, cutoff is likely to cap, and I may lose either Button or SB for 2 more sb. It also gives me a chance to see the turn action for cheap. I'm in bad shape on the flop if anyone slowplayed 78 and players in this game will wait until the turn to pop it with the nuts.

Does anyone else still 3bet the flop, cuz I know I do. Yes I may lose MP2, but Cutoff may not cap his overpair with so much aggression and even if he does the Button and SB are likely to still come along (they've both already coldcalled twice). Isn't being afraid of 78 seeing monsters?

if you 3 bet are you barrelling any turn card?

Never. I know that "turns my hand face up" but I don't really care cuz (a) I got my money in while I had the advantage, (b) it's not as if I'm worried about one of 4 opponents bluffing me off my 7 high hand if I'm UI by the river and (c) most opponents I play with wouldn't know what I had even if I showed them my cards. Isn't pushing these edges a basic necessity to play winning small stakes poker?

It's just a non-nut straight draw with a backdoor flush draw. I wouldn't be pumping up this flop but would love to see numbers that prove me wrong.

I'm not seeing monsters. I was simply saying that a better straight could be out there. I wouldn't have c/r the turn if I thought I was up against a made straight. I think that 2 sb on the flop is exactly the number that I want to have go in with my hand in this situation.

Don't get me wrong. We have good equity, but just not the kind of edge that I'm looking to pump on either street. Lots of ways to finish second best and it's pretty easy to check/raise a straight when we hit. My line here ~95% of the time is to check intending to call with the option to run without the ball if I think I can isolate big cards. Given the action, I'm not getting a "For Sale" vibe here.

You have a good point. Perhaps the key to this play is having some fold equity to go along with it. As it was, I knew that no-one was folding the turn.

We could c/r a straight if we hit, but the river is likely to check through if a flush card hits

nah, on a total draw you want everyone to fold or no one to fold, anything in between sucks

more bets on the flop.

as for the turn, i can go either way depending on CO's aggression and your table image. if CO wouldn't 3bet very often and they think you're passive, it's fine(unless it goes so far in the other direction they crap their pants and fold out because you clearly have quads). you're putting in 25% of the money and even after discounting, surely you have at least 30% equity.

Nope

332,184 games 9.691 secs 34,277 games/sec

Board: 5d 6s 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.719% 23.46% 03.38% 77936 11212.95 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 18.277% 16.60% 01.76% 55141 5841.45 { random }
Hand 2: 18.436% 16.76% 01.76% 55680 5833.20 { random }
Hand 3: 18.265% 16.58% 01.76% 55090 5852.95 { random }
Hand 4: 18.303% 16.61% 01.77% 55176 5891.45 { random }

From there adjust downward a bit because your opponents will have better than random hands.

i was referring to the turn when we pick up the flush draw. restove?

213,809 games 6.568 secs 32,553 games/sec

Board: 5d 6s 9h 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.119% 24.81% 01.31% 53053 2791.07 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 18.512% 17.22% 01.29% 36819 2760.98 { random }
Hand 2: 18.484% 17.16% 01.32% 36690 2829.48 { random }
Hand 3: 18.470% 17.16% 01.31% 36692 2798.57 { random }
Hand 4: 18.416% 17.09% 01.32% 36547 2827.90 { random }


Still not 30% against best case everyone follows (big street aggression is likely to lose at least one player) and no one bothers to look at their cards. Also, if I wasn't lazy and put in a wide range of hands that caught some of that board, having a paired board will hurt a lot more. It's really hard to have a lot of drawing equity with only one card to come...

i agree. i don't know what i was thinking. with the paired board our equity is hurt as well. i apparently had some ghost outs figured in my head. we need more opponents. thanks for stoving it Fnordy.

There is a total of 0 FE here...

FWIW If I put opponents on likely hands, I have more than 30% equity on the turn:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

40 games 0.005 secs 8,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 6s 9h 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.500% 32.50% 00.00% 13 0.00 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 65.000% 65.00% 00.00% 26 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 2: 01.250% 00.00% 01.25% 0 0.50 { Td9d }
Hand 3: 01.250% 00.00% 01.25% 0 0.50 { Ah9c }

I know this is a little idealistic, but still - if these numbers are close to accurate getting an extra bet on the turn is +ev.

thats a good thing.

If you don't use ranges, then it's possible to cook up all sorts of funny spots. The problem here is that there is a range of possible hands that hurt your equity a lot. Sometimes those hands will be out there. Often they will not be. Kinda like Schrödinger's cat...

True - I chose the range I did due to the read I had on my opponents at the time. No one looked like they had a 5 and I suspect that even the A9 and T9 are optimistic based on my opponents. More likely pocket dueces and KJo or something like that was out there. I was very sure that preflop raiser had a big pair based on his play.

It was good to meet you last night. Give me a couple of weeks and I'll be back sitting at 8-16 with ya.