Good lag open in EP, 4 players call, I call in BB with 69o.

5h8cQs.....EP bets, next player raises( he has at least a Q here), next player calls( he has any pair except good Q's he would 3 bet and any draw)and its folded to me.

Let me know if I am analyzing this correctly please.

I'm getting 8.5 to 1 current odds and have very good implied odds if I spike a 7. My current equity is about 17% against their perceived ranges. To figure out my odds I would subtract 17 from 100 which is 83 and divide by 17? This gives me 4.88 to 1. Does my equity even matter? Or do I just look at my odds of hitting a gutshot? How does hitting a 9 on the turn factor in? Also, how does the fact that the lag is still to act and is not c betting every flop? He doesn't necessarily have a monster but probably has something worth betting.

Do you call pre?

Do you call flop?

Thanks. I'm still a bit rusty after basically not playing for a year. I'm trying to get better at the math and analyzing hands.

This is a time game BTW so no rake per hand.

17 percent is yours percent chance of hitting it by the river. In calculating whether to call the flop bets, you need to consider what your percent chance of hitting it on the turn is (9ish percent). Given that you don’t close the action and that your straight could be drawn out on, id fold the flop. With this action, only a straight is going to win.

Yo get to odds, covert your equity to a fraction and subtract 1. So if you have twenty five percent equity, you have a 1/4 chance of winning so you need 3 to 1 to call.

You can also just count the pot. There are 10 bets in pot. I must call 2. Getting 5 to 1. I need to win 1/6 times to break even

No math; no poker.

8 bets preflop.

On the flop, 5 more bets went in, and you have to call 2 bets. So 13:2, but EP will probably not fold for one more bet, so you are likely to get 14:2, or 7:1. You are getting 7:1 odds to hit your 4-outer.

Occasionally EP will 3-bet the flop, which means you might only get 17:3 or worse depending on if one of the other players cap it.

I'm getting 17:2 on the flop.

You're not getting immediate odds to call but your implied odds are pretty good IMO. It would seem difficult for the Lag to 3-bet here without a really strong hand. I would call. I also recommend hitting the 7 on the turn.

i'll do it all out for the rusty op

you have to look at just the odds of hitting by the turn, and then the overall situation. you're not getting the odds to call flop AND turn to hit by the river. this latter figure is called "effective odds" and you should then count: a) immediate odds, b) likely future calls (utg and then a bet to you on the turn and the other person's call, best case, and then the total size on the river, maybe getting 1 more bet).

so here, you're getting 8.5:1 without closing the action. to hit the turn (~90% chance), there's 4 cards out of the remaining 47 that will help you. that's an 8.5% shot, or 11.75:1 (and your immediate odds are only 8.5:1).

your effective odds are worse though b/c on the turn, let's assume it goes a) utg calls flop, b) k k b c c on the turn, so that means there's another 2 (not your) bets going in on the turn, so that's 10.5:2 (you have to put in your initial bet AND the turn bet to see the river).

so your effective odds are:

8.5:1*8.5% + 5.25:1*91.5% = 5.625:1 effective odds given the above assumed action.

we then compare this to your chance of hitting. so, your chance of hitting on the turn is 8.5% (4/47) and once on the turn, the chance of hitting the river is 8.7% (4/46). this is a conditional probability. so you have to take a) the pr(hitting turn) + pr(NOT hitting turn)*pr(hitting river) =

8.5%****.5%*8.7% = 16.46%

converting back into odds, we do:

1-16.46% = 83.54%/16.46% = 5.08:1

so since 5.625>5.08, you can call flop and turn assuming you'llg et UTG's bet the whole time. but if you don't get those bets, you should fold.

it's pretty close. for me, the deciding factor is that you DO NOT close the action. so i'd just fold this.

You do these calculation in the moment of your decision?

Thank you for this!!! This is super helpful!!

no. i've done them a gigagajillion times away from the table so i can know in various situations what the approximate odds are and if i want to err towards calling or folding.

my post COULD have been "i fold this b/c we dont' close the action. if we closed the action and if we were utg getting 9:1 then it'd be closer and possibly a call with implied odds depending on the players"

but i thought i'd do it all out for ya

PS - also, no idea what happened here: "8.5%****.5%*8.7% = 16.46%", that's 8.5%****.5%*8.7%

what the sh*t is going on here:

i'm writing out the numbers. i keep inputting eight point five percent plus ninety one point five percent times eight point seven percent.....and it adds those ***s for no reason...

Sorry, I am mis-reading everything. Had the flu for 4 days.

No worries! I hope your feeling better!

It’s probably objecting to the weird way you calculate that percentage.

1-(43/47 * 42/46) = 1-(11/12 * 11/12) = 1- 121/144 = 1-120/140 = 1 - 6/7 = 1/7

Everyone always has to make things so hard around here. Finding the odds of something happening is conditional, finding the odds it won’t isn’t. It’s only trivial if you’re going to solely be dealing with two terms and never want to deal it mentally.

if you ever want to casually do something like figure out the odds of a pocket pair turning in to a set or quads by the river and your google is broken, you can try to figure the odds of it happening but that will quickly turn in to an actual math problem. Or you can figure out the odds of it not happening which is really easy with a calculator and can done mentally as 1-.96%^5 minus a tad, also known as ‘a little under 20%’

The chance of not hitting X outs by the river is ((47-x)/47)*((46-x)/46))

That way if you ever need to figure out something on the fly, like 9 outs, you can figure out the odds you won’t get it by going (38/47)*(37/46) is basically (40/50)*(36/45) == 4/5^2==.8^2 == 64% chance you miss == 36% you hit

I've always found that quadrupling my outs on the flop is a fine enough way to figure out my approximate winning chances. Or doubling my outs for one street draws.

So you have four outs here, you will make your hand on the next card ~8% and by the river ~16% of the time.

Also, you should probably just know that you need ~11 to 1 to call with a gutshot.