Live 20 villain opens somewhere close the front and I 3 ball the KQs two seats to his left (in perhaps the HJ, maybe CO). It folds back around to him and he calls, HU. Villain is easily my most competent opponent, and he regularly plays and wins in 3/6 and 5/T 6-max games online. Our history so far seems to involve three betting each other relentlessly, and him waiting to raise me on the turn what seems to be way too often. We are also friendly, and have not engaged in much in the way of pissing contests at all. In fact I'd say there is a fair bit of trust in our relationship.

AK4tt

He calls.

AK4-Jr

He checks I check.

Qr

He checks, I....

On the turn I opted to check back because I was afraid that he would play his aces like this the majority of the time (either WA/WB or c/c c/r). The downside is that it sucks to give a free card to QQ and TT, but this is mitigated somewhat by me holding a queen. I can also get value from KTs, but that's really about it. And getting check/raised would be all kinds of horrible.

On the river I has two pears, but am unsure if they are good enough to value bet on this board.

If he's 2 to your left and you're HJ at earliest, that means he's like 4 off the button or something. Wouldn't his range here include suited Ace type hands as low as A7 or A8 that are probably going to look you up on the river? Maybe something like QJs or KJs as well? I think there's enough value to b/f here.

I'm pretty sure even A9s is a stretch. He was at the earliest the lowjack, and probably the farjack.

Stox says A8s and A7s are openable from the farjack and lojack respectively?
Just to confirm, it's button, cutoff, hijack, lojack, farjack?

Yes. You're right, he could definitely have some of those hands, especially if he was the lowjack (UTG at a 6max table). Remember that in live games it's not always up in your face screaming at you which position everyone is in. There are people with out buttons, telegraphed folds, and all manner of nonsense going on. So sure let's say A8s is in his range...is he really calling the river with that? This isn't a wide range button vs bb spot....I did make it tree bets.

Most definitely. In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice, but in practice, there definitely is...

Well, like, if his opening range looks like:

55+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, A9o+, KQo (per WITHEG from the LJ)

Then your 3-betting range should vaguely resemble something like:

77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo+, KQo (giving you ~55% equity with only the button and the blinds left in).

From this 3-betting range, I'm having a hard time figuring out a hand worse than a pair of Aces that would check the turn then bet the river. Are you bet/folding this turn with a hand like 99?

So, maybe just check behind I guess, if you guys trust each other and he plays pretty good. I'm probably underestimating Villain because I play pretty bad myself, but I get a lot of curious calls from regular opponents in this situation because they have top pear and a lot of checking has happened.

I'm pretty sure you have both ranges a touch too wide and I'm pretty sure both of us know it. Mine is perhaps too narrow because I am a bit of a nit, but I honestly don't think he's opening K9s, J9s, A9o, or 98s. Maybe he is and I'm just clueless, and maybe I need to 3-bet him even more liberally, but I'm just callin' it as I see it.

Well, I took his from a book and fudged yours until I came up with 55% equity.

Maybe these are too wide and I'm a giant spewtard for opening what Stox says to open, following it up with a heavy reliance on the bet/bet line in heads-up pots, and presuming other people play like me?

After thinking about it tho, I do like checking behind on the river.

Anybody not named Niveous?

I like it as played and I like a river bet/fold. He has to assume straights are in your range so I wouldn't expect to get checkraise bluffed.

Just wondering, if you think he is your best opponent in the game and he open raises from near the front, isn't even playing the KQs a big stretch? Did you really think you were more likely to be ahead preflop, or was this some kind of meta-game play?

I used to think that KQs and AJs were hands that you were allowed to fold when it was raised in front of you. I no longer believe this.

Best opponent probably means laggiest which means KQs does better vs his range than vs a really nitty guy's opening range for example.

Yeah to be clear there is just no way I am laying down this hand against this guy. Sure against people who are raising like top 7% or whatever and therefore going to cap you like 2/3rds of the time and have you smoked like cheese fine, but not against someone capable of thinking about the game.

I think for river, you should do the combo counting (with appropriate discounting). I did a rough estimate, and it seems like it primarily depends on how far down Ax he opens with and how often he slowplays big hands (AA/KK/AK/JJ) by only calling pre of on the flop.

Turn is pretty close and the most interesting decision IMO. I've certainly bet and checked both, depending on how light villains peel the flop. On this particular turn I think he should be less likely to c/r a bare Ace, because this is a pretty scary board that you're not usually betting underpairs on (probably not even QQ/TT), so your turn range is pretty strong if you bet and a good number of them you can 3-bet.

My guess is that he is making smoov 100% on the preflop. However, I do not think he would make slowplay with sets on the flop, because he would want the chance to go go bananas with me with such a strong holding.

bet the river to get calls from worse two pairs and Aces worse than A9 (if he opens those, which hopefully he does otherwise his range is too narrow for KQs to be 3bet PF). this will sound unconventional but consider cold calling KQs PF here against a good early opener to induce MW action instead of isolating a tough opponent who has a strong hand.

Whats your plan on brick rivers when you bet the turn?

Honestly the turn is way more interesting than the river. River seems like an easy bet/call. Why would he ever check a ten?

I'm not sure I've ever seen a smoked cheese. Smoked turkey, smoked ham, smoked bacon, even smoked salmon. But not smoked cheese.

That was kind of the point

Technically speaking removing A9-A7 or whatever from his preflop range should improve my hot and cold equity with the KQs, correct?

Ceteris paribus, yes (Ace high > King high ldo), but tightening up one aspect of his range is probably indicative that other areas are tighter as well?

relative to a predefined range (lets just say 99+, ATs+), if his range has A9-A7 then it'll be wider and have worse stuff like QJs, and your equity overall with KQs will be better against the wider range. Adding just those 3 hands improves your equity by a bit (though i find it counterintuitive):




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

301,365,504 games 0.278 secs 1,084,048,575 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.867% 63.55% 00.32% 191510108 962960.00 { 99+, ATs+ }
Hand 1: 36.133% 35.81% 00.32% 107929476 962960.00 { KQs }




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

383,556,096 games 0.360 secs 1,065,433,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.420% 62.12% 00.30% 238248536 1168280.00 { 99+, A7s+ }
Hand 1: 37.580% 37.28% 00.30% 142971000 1168280.00 { KQs }

LOL maybe I shouldn't be 3-betting the KQs....

bet/fold, next hand, am i missing something? You should have Tx in your range some % of the time, + if he owns your soul here with Tx then mix in some check behind with your weaker 2p hands.