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Old 11-04-2010, 03:35 PM   #1
jesse8888
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In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two pair

Reads, and remember all stats filtered for 7+ handed.

Initial raiser seems laggy and decent but I only have like 50 hands.

First coldcaller is one of the worst players I have ever seen, 40/1 with amazing postflop tendencies.

CO is a bad nit. He's like 13/6/2 and obviously isn't great over a reasonable sample.

SB is a bad lag, 27/16/1.8 over 800 hands. However he just 3-bet half the table from the SB, so he probably has a pretty big hand.

Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with 7 8
2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, MP1 caps!, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls

Flop: (21 SB) 7 9 J (5 players)
SB bets, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls, MP1 folds

Turn: (16 BB) 2 (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls

River: (25 BB) 8 (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

I was going to post my thought process but think I butchered somewhere between 1 and 3 streets. What say ye?
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Old 11-04-2010, 04:43 PM   #2
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Why not just cap the flop? It's not like anyone is folding at this point and even if the nit flopped the joint on you you're not doing too bad. The SB is never folding as is the CCer.

Turn is just gross. You can't fold but God that sucks. I dunno I might check here but maybe I'm just being results oriented.

I think the river is a clear check. PF is fine obv. Please tell me the CO was slowplaying AA and SB had KK and 89 was good.

I doubt it was though, the CO probably has 77 or 99.
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Old 11-04-2010, 05:06 PM   #3
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Pf I likey.

Flop: I just cap it, might get a free turn out of it, if not, we have great equity.

Turn: As played I bet the turn also. Looks like CO pumped a draw and the SB seems none too happy with his hand......until he c/r lol

River: I check it back too. Not fearing the 10, but fearing CO has a set, that he somehow managed to c/3! on the turn and now he has caca in his pantalons.
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Old 11-04-2010, 07:10 PM   #4
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

I would consider 3betting pf but coldcalling seems fine.

I would cap the flop.

I would check back the turn.

I would valuebet the river as played.
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Old 11-04-2010, 07:39 PM   #5
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Pre is fine.

Cap flop as others have mentioned; our equity is monstrous. We can't predict that MP1 would fold, so 4 ways we are hogging equity.

On the turn, I'd check. You need too much overlay for both sb and CO to not have you beat here, neither of which is folding for a bet. It's strange that both players checked, but running multiple theoretical simulations, can you really come up with enough hands in both sb and CO's range in which you are still ahead of on the turn?

On the river, I'd bet for value. CO's hand looks like strong one pair-type hands: Jx/QQ-AA
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Old 11-04-2010, 10:22 PM   #6
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBadBabar View Post
I would consider 3betting pf but coldcalling seems fine.

I would cap the flop.

I would check back the turn.

I would valuebet the river as played.
Babar gives me 1/2 out of 4 streets correct.
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Old 11-04-2010, 10:26 PM   #7
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Quote:
Originally Posted by swifttarrow View Post
Pre is fine.

Cap flop as others have mentioned; our equity is monstrous. We can't predict that MP1 would fold, so 4 ways we are hogging equity.

On the turn, I'd check. You need too much overlay for both sb and CO to not have you beat here, neither of which is folding for a bet. It's strange that both players checked, but running multiple theoretical simulations, can you really come up with enough hands in both sb and CO's range in which you are still ahead of on the turn?

On the river, I'd bet for value. CO's hand looks like strong one pair-type hands: Jx/QQ-AA
For you guys who want to bet the river for value....the guy is a 13/6 and he just check/3-bet the turn. Admittedly the play just smells funny, since the only guy behind him is the guy who took 3 to the face on the flop, so what assurance did he have that he could check/raise. Honestly it's so weird I think a misclick on one of his two actions becomes something we should consider.

And on the turn bet....I wanted to check it back, but then I decided that:

1. If they have AA and KK I have about 33% equity.
2. They both just checked for crying out loud.

I wanted to stop the action on the turn, but felt the river was too interesting to leave out. I guess I should have done a playalong
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Old 11-05-2010, 01:01 AM   #8
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

I like pre.

Cap the flop, though, since you're in position, it's harder to read, like if you had your hand in SB, I can see just coldcalling the 3bet, but on the BTN you need to cap this, because you can see what develops, even if you have bad relative position to the preflop 3bettor.

I read your thoughts on your blog on the turn and I would've fallen right into the trap, too and would've bet out and would've exclaimed "doh!" the second I see SB c/r'ing.

River is tricky too. I don't think we have the equity here to valuebet, honestly. Against one, all the time, against 2, nah (but it's close, imo!)
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Old 11-05-2010, 03:14 AM   #9
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Yeah I could be fine with a river checkback to be honest. Just whenever it's close at all I always post bet (and bet IRL).
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Old 11-05-2010, 04:05 AM   #10
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Quote:
Originally Posted by BubbleMint View Post
Flop: I just cap it, might get a free turn out of it, if not, we have great equity.
He got a free turn anyway and didn't want it.
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Old 11-05-2010, 09:51 AM   #11
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill View Post
He got a free turn anyway and didn't want it.
And told the world that he didn't have a set or a straight.

Jesse, could you post the SB's VP$IP/PFR filtered for 9 hands? Are there notes to back up bad LAG or is this a stats read?

Quote:
However he just 3-bet half the table from the SB, so he probably has a pretty big hand.
I think you are wrong in thinking this.
Quote:
I would consider 3betting pf but coldcalling seems fine.
Playing 8 and 9 handed, I would guess BBB would play close the the villain's stats. Notice how he sees 87s as a cold 3 betting hand? For a discount in the SB, a good LAG isn't going to need a traditional big hand here.
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Old 11-05-2010, 11:53 AM   #12
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

I would bet fold river. Gotta get value from AA-QQ.
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Old 11-05-2010, 11:57 AM   #13
jesse8888
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Over 313 hands dealt 9 ways he is 30/18 with 7% 3bet percentage which shows an obvious problem with my data. He's laggier and looser 9 handed than he is 7 or 8 handed. I didn't have a note at the time....i simply had him colored blue (which is my "this guy definitely doesn't win" color) and had a sense that he plays too many hands preflop and has a tendency to click the wrong button post flop.
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Old 11-05-2010, 11:59 AM   #14
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Quote:
Originally Posted by that_pope View Post
I would bet fold river. Gotta get value from AA-QQ.
Not bet/folding in 20 bet pot. I realize it may be correct but I am pretty sure I couldn't do it.
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Old 11-05-2010, 12:20 PM   #15
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Also Doug....

I realize he doesn't have to have a traditional monster holding preflop; he could have some suited connectory stuff, etc. But while there we are speculating, I think it's pretty safe to say that all the big stuff (TT+, AQs, AK) is definitely in his range.

I do find it pretty hilarious that on this board two players paid 4 and 6 bets respectively and didn't see the turn.
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Old 11-05-2010, 01:42 PM   #16
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888 View Post
Not bet/folding in 20 bet pot. I realize it may be correct but I am pretty sure I couldn't do it.
It is easy to do IMO....

From SSSH LC thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by that_pope View Post
The BB is a 21/15 nit. His river raise is repping QQ IMO, how bad is his river raise?



Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with 8 K
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls

Flop: (9 SB) 8 4 8 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB caps!, Hero calls, SB calls

Turn: (10.5 BB) T (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls

River: (16.5 BB) Q (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB raises, Hero folds, SB calls

Final Pot: 21.5 BB
SB mucks A A
BB shows J T (a flush, Queen high)
BB wins 21 BB
(Rake: $3.00)
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Old 11-17-2010, 01:29 AM   #17
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Re: In which I call 2 cold thrice, call 3 cold, bet and am C/R and C/3'ed, then check back two

definitely check the turn here
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