Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig
Assume you are not three betting pre.
Folded to a Solid TAG button who raises and you call.
QcJs3h.....How do you proceed with...KsTc, 9sTc, Ks9s
here's a non-perfect way to approach this question:
first, nobody mentioned the removal effects of kt and k9. you having a k makes it less likely that he does, which removes some of the very hands that could hit this flop (k3s, kq, kj). now, this isn't a big effect ofc, but it is something.
second, you have to have a plan with the full set of hands. the purpose of our ranges here is to be balanced and indifferent to opponent play in general. we're calling a MASSIVE range in the bb and i don't have a donking range live (if i ever go back to playing professionally i'll develop one, but i'm too lazy now), so i have to k/r a ton and that means i have to have some randomization.
i'm calling ~75% (just checked and it's 73.8%). so that means ~980 hands.
we'll be getting 5.5:1 on the flop and we'll most likely not hit the flop. so starting with what hands we're continuing with. if we begin with:
- most aces: 208 total aces, so let's say half the aces we proceed with, so that's 104
- all nonset pairs: 60
- all sets: 9
- all flush draws: ~10.5% when we hold two suited cards (~245 such cases) = ~26
- all straight draws: board comes out w/ a straight w/ holding 2 cards (8 outs) or 1 card w/ a 3way on board (8 outs) ~8.5% of the time and then it's 7.5% with a 1gapper, 9.7% with 0gapper, 5.4% with a two gapper etc. etc.. then there's the straights that are just gutshots, which are ~15%. but there's a lot of work to figure out exactly which hands, so let's say we are eligible to have a straight draw to proceed with (gutshot or open ender) about 10% of the time and that is out of those 980 hands, so around 100 hands.
- all pairs: (~40.4%*number of hands NOT included in the non-paired holdings= 980-60-9-26-100 * 40.4%= 275.12, so say 275.
that comes to about 300+275 hands that we'll continue with, which is about 60% or so.
that means that we're either k/r or calling with 575 hands. that leaves building these buckets as the work to be done. generally, this works:
75% of straights=75
75% of flushes=20
50% of nonset pairs=30
90% of sets=8
50% of pairs = 137
75% of 2pairs=15 (about 20 of these)
which gives 285 hands, or just under 50%, so it's a good approximation. given that, the way that you parse out your straights/flushes determines what you do with these three holdings.
i use hearts as my 25% and hearts/spades as my 50% markers (if a hand has hearts, it's 25% of the set of hands. if it has hearts and spades, then it's 50% - or it's hearts or spades for suited hands).
since none of the above hands have hearts, they all get kr'd lol.
