Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
DalTXColtsFan, I'm surprised you posted an UTG hand as a tough spot with 99 or TT.
I'm not ashamed that there are still easy spots that are hard for me. Doesn't stop me from asking questions one bit.
I did some math, and assuming the math is correct, we're going to flop either a set or an overpair with 99 30% of the time. I did *not* know the number was that high. But an overcard will come on the turn and/or river about, what, 70% of the time? It's akin to a villain having 20 outs with 2 cards to come.
Here's a stove I did with some very conservative cold-calling ranges for 2 villans plus the big blind. In short, 99 has 32% equity 4 ways against:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
15,294,185 games 9.261 secs 1,651,461 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.435% 31.03% 00.40% 4745838 61931.42 { 99 }
Hand 1: 23.757% 22.81% 00.95% 3488426 145029.25 { QQ-22, AQs-A5s, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-A8o, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o }
Hand 2: 23.734% 22.79% 00.95% 3485079 144868.33 { QQ-22, AQs-A5s, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-A8o, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o }
Hand 3: 21.075% 20.36% 00.71% 3114608 108724.75 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A7o+, K8o+, Q9o+, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }
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I'll post more in a minute.
Really what it boils down to with 99 and TT is I know they have equity advantages but I feel lost when an overcard comes. I'll post a hand where we raise 99 UTG, get 2 coldcallers and a BB call and then an overcard comes on the turn in a few minutes.