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Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT

01-18-2018 , 09:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
I'm a little worried about your b/f frequency.

[SNIP]

If they think you bluff a lot on the river and then fold to their raises, that's fine.

You're not one of those people who keeps track of hands at the table, are you?
There are definitely times when I bet the river with nothing, for example correctly betting on the come on the flop and turn with a huge draw and then betting the river hoping to get a better busted draw or low pair to fold. When they call me and I'm out of position, I table my hand. This makes me "worried" that villains will start raising me lighter on the river, and makes it harder for me to fold one pair, especially when the pot is laying me 9-to-1+ odds to call. Is there a possible leak in my game here?

As far as keeping track of hands at the table, a typical session for me is 3 to 5 hours, and there are usually only 2 or 3 spots the whole time where the correct play isn't trivially clear. It's not hard for me to remember 2 or 3 hands where I wasn't sure what the right decision was so I don't bother taking notes.
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-18-2018 , 09:21 AM
I'll admit that I have only skimmed the thread so far.

Quote:
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT
Ok so they raise preflop from early position and you're holding 99. You've done the stoves and the range work before hand. How profitable do you think 3 betting the 99 is?

Spoiler:
If it's profitable, then it's by a slim margin relative to folding. If you play it well postflop, then in most cases you're winning back your preflop 3 bet plus a chunk of the blinds.
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-18-2018 , 09:28 AM
Small stakes players don't come to the game to carefully watch you and adjust. If you make a show of tank folding a lot of rivers or if you brag about your hero folds, maybe people will remember. It isn't about information hiding, it is about not drawing a bullseye on your chest. How do people see you at the table? Happy versions of crazy raising guy don't have this issue, and morose people who explain how expertly they are folding may well.

Good on the second part. You had an exact count, and that made me remember this guy back in the day who kept notes and could (and would always) tell the table stats on his big hands. "I've only won 34% of my hands where I had AA and fewer than 3 people called. Winning 3 out of 5 with jacks, though." Assuming there are people doing this with their phones...
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-18-2018 , 12:27 PM
If people are seeing you bluff a lot on the river, I don't get why you think this would make them raise you more often. It should just make them call you lighter.
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-18-2018 , 12:53 PM
Hand 1 the exact ranks matter. What was the shape of the flop and turn? Clustered ranks are different from non-straight-forming ranks. If you're value betting on the river you need to consider what is calling.

Hand 2 you need to work out the combos as well on the turn. I wouldn't worry so much about 33 as I do like A2o which may not raise but call infinity bets. You're balancing that vs like 54 or 66.

Hand 3 I think betting the turn is a clear mistake. A K73 board with 4 callers almost always includes someone with a K.
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-18-2018 , 12:57 PM
Hand 4 I wouldn't pay 0.90-0.95 BB to see her 8 ... or 7.

Also, if I did, I would never say anything that indicated I expected to be beat. That's just an ego thing, to try and let people know that you know that you play better than they do. Act disappointed like you expected your AK to be good and relish everyone thinking you're an idiot IMO.
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-18-2018 , 07:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
If people are seeing you bluff a lot on the river, I don't get why you think this would make them raise you more often. It should just make them call you lighter.
You want them to think you're bluffing, because you're an idiot who is crazy. You don't want them to think you're hero folding pairs. Or overpairs. Or sets. Or whatever.

Calli is right about all the stuff above. Especially like this:
Quote:
Act disappointed like you expected your AK to be good and relish everyone thinking you're an idiot IMO.
In the end, you just don't want to teach your opponents that you're eager to fold rivers. The don't bluff nearly enough. If you convince them to bluff more, you're making them better poker players.
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-19-2018 , 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
Hand 1 the exact ranks matter. What was the shape of the flop and turn? Clustered ranks are different from non-straight-forming ranks. If you're value betting on the river you need to consider what is calling.

Hand 2 you need to work out the combos as well on the turn. I wouldn't worry so much about 33 as I do like A2o which may not raise but call infinity bets. You're balancing that vs like 54 or 66.

Hand 3 I think betting the turn is a clear mistake. A K73 board with 4 callers almost always includes someone with a K.
Hand 1 I don't remember the ranks, but I'm pretty sure I still had an overpair on the river and there was at least 1 8 and 1 7.

Hand 2 my thought process was that when there are 2 aces on the flop it's really hard for someone to have the 3rd ace, so I'm going to bet like nobody has an ace until someone tells me they do. Is betting the flop and turn a mistake given the action?

Hand 3 if the board texture were something more like K87tt would betting the turn facing the same action still be a mistake? I can see it being a mistake on the desert-dry board but on K87tt I could see wanting to get value from 8s, 7s and draws.
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-19-2018 , 09:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
You had an exact count, and that made me remember
FYI, another thing I TRY to do at the table is focus on one leak at a time. I felt like I had a clear leak with 99 and TT (which is why I started this thread) so I deliberately went into this particular session intending to concentrate on playing these 2 hands correctly - that's why I was able to remember them. Weird coincidence that I got dealt them 6 times in 4 hours isn't it?
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-19-2018 , 01:26 PM
i can say for certain you're underestimating this figure:

Quote:
there are usually only 2 or 3 spots the whole time where the correct play isn't trivially clear.
pick 5 of the spots that you think are trivially clear and i guarantee you at least 1 of them from almost whatever sample you choose will have at least one decision point that is not trivially clear. if you're only paying attention to your hands then this may be true, but hands go down when you're not in them and you should see how others play and thus question what you'dd o in those spots, for example.
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-21-2018 , 11:31 AM
Thanks uphill. Good reminder. I'll pay more attention in the future.
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-21-2018 , 12:14 PM
Please answer this question as I think your answer will indicate a flaw in your poker thinking:

Quote:
Ok so they raise preflop from early position and you're holding 99. You've done the stoves and the range work before hand. How profitable do you think 3 betting the 99 is?
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote
01-21-2018 , 11:32 PM
There are many considerations and permuations to consider when deciding whether or not to 3-bet with 99. I'll list a few and then we'll go from there.

If it's a tight raiser (TT+/AQso+,KQs) raising from early position and nobody else has coldcalled I pretty happily muck 99. 3-betting is not hugely unprofitable given the probable dead money from the blinds and us being able to play the hand in position, but against that tight a range 99 is fighting a difficult battle.

If it's a LOOSE raiser who will raise with ATso+, KJso+, QJso+, 88+, then my hope is that by 3-betting I can either get heads up against him with dead money from the blinds, or the BB is willing to coldcall with a reasonably wide range (i.e. any pair, any suited ace, most suited kings, any 2 broadways, some suited connectors) that only makes the 99 more profitable.

What if a tight player raises in EP, there are 3 coldcallers and I'm on the button with 99? If the 3 coldcallers all have similar coldcalling ranges to what I describe above, I'm pretty happy to 3-bet there, trap all that dead money in the middle and use my position to help me postflop.

What if there are 3 limpers, the CO (a loose raiser) raises and I'm on the button with 99? I'm VERY happy to 3-bet 99 there.

If CO is a tight raiser I probably cold-call to setmine expecting both blinds to come along for the ride in this huge pot.
Help me with a mental block regarding 99 and TT Quote

      
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