Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeca
BB check/3 bet smells like a flush draw to me.
That seems like a very narrow read. There are really only 3 combos of flush draws? AK, AQ, KQ? Unless you think he's 3-betting ATs from BB. In which case that's 4 combos.
I think you have to consider that he has AA/KK/QQ at least sometimes here (and there doesn't need to be many sometimes for this to matter since flush draws are so few). Maybe even JJ. ("Someone's going to bet this flop and I can check-raise THE NUTS!!!")
Quote:
I'd put UTG on 2 pair or better, but I don't have a good read on him.
So... exactly JTs? Maybe JTo? Or do you think he played the flop that way with J7? T7? I guess it depends on how loose he is and how positionally aware he is. But I also think this read is a little bit too narrow. A set of 4s or 7s also makes sense because he wanted to see a safe turn card or wanted to wait until the turn to raise BB's bet. He might even played QQ in the classic "wait for a safe flop" approach to big pocket pairs, and now he's playing it hard. I might actually think that he's got the flush draw more often than BB with a random suited ace or suited king.
I think I would go with my gut feeling on the donk factor. Based on your general experiences in this game at this level, how likely is it that someone is doing something aggressively stupid? If the game generally skews passive, I think you can walk away. If it skews aggressive, I think you're stuck calling at least once and seeing what unfolds behind you.
You "shouldn't" be ahead here very often. You're getting an immediate 15:2, which is tempting, but the future action is going to be an unknown. My assumptions lead to me thinking that BB's preflop 3-betting range is too narrow and too overpair-heavy for you to do well against him, combined with the UTG's aggression after a limp-call2 preflop makes it look like things are stacked against you. I think I'm okay folding this one unless I have a specific reason to call.