Very loose 8/16 half kill. There are three guys drinking heavily playing nearly every hand.

UTG, a tight passive transparent type limps. 2 folds to me and I raise 77. The BB, who is running at something like 75%/5% VPIP, calls and we go to a flop of AK9. I want to give up now and check behind. Any merit to betting here?

In my experience, these casual drinky poo games usually involve too many people calling a single bet on the flop. The drinkers are out to gamble, usually.

Thus far, how often have you seen people fold the flop in this game?

There are only 3 to the flop this hand, and the other two players could have just about anything?

I'd spend $8 on the flop and give up if called.

I usually bet the turn as well.

I'd personally give up here. Betting is neither for value nor as a bluff since we can't get better to fold. Even 9x is going to peel one off. And do we really want to bluff again OTT? 8/16 is notoriously full of loose stations who never fold so why try to fight an uphill battle?

I'd rather cbet QJ JT QT here than 77. We'd have more outs, plus hitting a pair will occasionally even be good. We're at the bottom of our range with 77 vs drunks playing every hand. I'd let it go and stick to value betting. Don't try to bluff stations. Especially at 8/16.

Bet the flop. Give them a reason to take your turn bet seriously.

Do you think you have the best hand here? It's not totally unreasonable, but I don't think it's that likely.

I don't mind betting the flop and checking down from there, nor do I mind just checking down. If you're not checking here, are you ever checking?

On A K 9 I think I'd rather check back with QQ-TT or a weak king. That way you can showdown and possibly beat a pair of 9s. You might have to bet 77 the whole way since QJ, QT, JT, and possibly 9X fold to turn bets, then on Q, J, or T turn cards you can consider turning 77 into a bluff or give up.

The BB could literally have any two cards but the UTG player has a stronger range that is either pairs or unsuited broadway cards. I feel like a bet here is ambitious but it is likely to be checked to me again on the turn given they both were playing passively.

What if they call you with 66-22, QJ, QT, JT, J8, T8, backdrop flush draws, etc?

What do you think the complete hand range looks like?

I almost never say this, but if you raise PF (which you should obv) then you are pretty much obligated to bet the flop. Giving up on this flop is just way to weak given the game you described.

Fair point. Typing on phone will reply more fully tonight. Tight passive guy idk I wouldn’t be shocked to see top 20% plus all pocket pairs (minus AA-QQ, and minus AKs, but idk some percentage of the time all of those because it’s lol live).

Other guy I’d imagine AA, KK, 99, Ax, most Kx hands, JJ, TT, fair portion of 9x, 88-22, Qx suited, lots of QJo-Q6o, JTo-J6o, T9o-T6o, 98o-95o, 87o-85o. Also lots of suited Qx, suited Jx, and suited one, two, and three gap connectors.

I mean their only actions are calling a raise then checking he flop. I think the ranges and wide and will know more after we bet. But I think we should bet.

I think the question isn’t really if they would ever fold a better hand (I doubt it, maybe 88), but how lightly do they peel. I’m always shocked by how weakly people peel when they shouldn’t. I think the more interesting questions are 1) do you bet again on the turn (against who and why) and 2) do you bluff catch the river (and why against who).

I might have missed the question. If you mean “what is the entire range they call a bet with” then I think it’s very wide, and wide enough to bet the flop with this hand. Like in the previous post, I’m shocked how wide even tight/supposedly taggy players peel a flop incorrectly.

Two sides of the same coin is that the BB has been calling with some hopeless hands because he hasn't folded a flop he's seen in like 2 hours. I did end up betting and he told me he was going to call me down all the way which I took to mean he had a pair and shut down accordingly.

Basically, I think you're being overly optimistic that all those hands call frequently enough to make betting for value on this board correct.

Fair enough. What’s the worst value hand you’d bet?

I've given up betting in this spot.

Oh, I have to give a reason? It's bec I don't like throwing money away.

For value? Assuming generally loose passive villains, I'm probably betting down to TT on this flop (which isn't to say I bet all streets). There's a lot of middling 9x hands out there that would probably call at least one bet.

If villains are more aggressive, I probably cut off somewhere in the middle-kings that are in my range.

This is a spot I've wrestled with myself. It's kind of a check list really.

Reasons to bet:
- Deny collective equity from your opponents
- Make your range less transparent
- "Buy" a cheap turn and river card to see if your 2 outer comes in
- Set up a three street bluff on some run outs
- Prevent gutters from chasing for free.
- Our opponents are over-foldy on the flop and give us a chance to win the pot with a bet too often.

Reasons to check:
- Most worse hands fold and most better hands call (exceptions being: we could get called by QJ/QT/JT and get folds from 88)
- Opponents are collectively folding below what MDF would suggest we want (in this spot, the pot is 6.5 bets and we're risking 1 to win it; if our opponents collectively fold over 13.33% (call it 14% due to rake), we make immediate profit).

My guess is a legitimate tight passive type will be folding flop around 35%. A 5%-75% range on AK9 is about 52.8% high cards (389 combos, only 48 of which are straight draws), and 39 pocket pairs below the 9. If he always peels the pairs and the gutters and doesn't make ridiculous calls with like 86dd, then we're talking about 46.3% folds from him. Since he's a fish and will continue with ridiculous things, call it 40%

0.35 * 0.4 = 14% bet takes it down, so it's probably very slightly profitable to bet the flop.

Now whether this makes us more money than checking is a whole different story. I'm thinking checking down makes us the most money, assuming we play near perfect poker after our check and avoid getting bluffed out or making bad calls.

Hmm what is your range here?

At a "very loose" table with a "tight passive UTG" and "three guys playing nearly every hand" and I'm in middle position? Maybe something like mid pairs and up, suited broadway, medium suited aces, KJ+. Not a ton. I don't think isolating the tight passive player is likely to work here, so I'm not going to go hard on the raises. Also, "tight" suggests that isolating isn't the best play in the first place.

I think other playable hands are more likely to be limped in. That would depend somewhat on the level of preflop aggression. Loose-passive preflop play = more limps.