Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig
I think he is calling any Axs. I think the only thing he caps is AA's or KK's. He's calling a lot of medium suited hands as well. KQo, AJo.
Do the medium suited hands go all the way down to 76s? And the only 3s in his range are A3s and 33?
Quote:
I put him on A4, A5, 33's 66-QQ's. I think he CR's or slowplays monsters but maybe he donks those given my position.
I think he bet/calls all non monsters on the turn. He may fold the pairs that aren't combo draws but I suspect he would still call.
So if we remove the flopped straight and sets...
A4s = 3 hands
A5s = 3 hands
33 = 6 hands
66-TT = 30 hands
JJ = 3 hands
QQ = 6 hands
Based on what you've stated, it's extremely likely on the turn that he's betting a pocket pair, and might fold if you raise. In your situation with your read, I probably would not have raised the turn.
----
The flop donk into a large field in a 3-bet pot is something I take as being a very strong move. I would be less inclined to put a "mediocre TAG" on a medium overpair or A4s/A5s. And so I wouldn't raise the turn, but for reasons other than what you've stated. I bias that hand range much more strongly towards things that make me less confident in the strength of a pair of jacks. Being in position means that if he checks the river, I can value bet and pretty much ensure that I get exactly one bet per street, which feels about right for this situation.
As played, I'm not folding TPTK for one more bet in a big pot HU.