Avg TAG opens UTG, super loose and horrible guy calls in CO, I 3 bet AhJh on the button, mediocre TAG calls in the BB, the rest call.

452..BB donks, all call

452J..BB bets, folded to me, I raise, he calls.

452J4...BB checks, I bet, BB insta raises.

I feel beat close to 100% but we are dealing with a fairly small sample size..maybe a couple hundred hours with this guy. I look around the table and all eyes are on me to see if I call or fold. Is this a spot given the size of the pot that you just pay it off and move on? Or do you fold knowing you are beat?

Folding here could be exploited by a thinking player in the future. On the other hand, I feel like I know who has it in their DNA to bluff raise in spots like this. Even then, it doesn't happen often, especially in a spot like this where lots of strength has been shown and there are not a ton of missed draws out.

I would have called down from turn.

What is the hand range for a "mediocre TAG" cold calling 3 from BB?

What do you think a mediocre TAG donk into a big field on a 245 flop?

What do you think a mediocre TAG bet calls with on this turn card?

He is a bet to see where he is at type. I put him on A4, A5, 33's 66-QQ's I think he would cap KK's and AA's. I think he CR's or slowplays monsters but maybe he donks those given my position.

I think he bet/calls all non monsters on the turn. He may fold the pairs that aren't combo draws but I suspect he would still call.

So going back to preflop, you think he's calling two cold from BB with any ace and calling all pocket pairs except AA/KK? Anything else?

This might be a compelling argument not to raise the turn once it's heads up.

I think he is calling any Axs. I think the only thing he caps is AA's or KK's. He's calling a lot of medium suited hands as well. KQo, AJo.

Call and say, “nice hand” if you lose.

Do the medium suited hands go all the way down to 76s? And the only 3s in his range are A3s and 33?

So if we remove the flopped straight and sets...

A4s = 3 hands
A5s = 3 hands
33 = 6 hands
66-TT = 30 hands
JJ = 3 hands
QQ = 6 hands

Based on what you've stated, it's extremely likely on the turn that he's betting a pocket pair, and might fold if you raise. In your situation with your read, I probably would not have raised the turn.

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The flop donk into a large field in a 3-bet pot is something I take as being a very strong move. I would be less inclined to put a "mediocre TAG" on a medium overpair or A4s/A5s. And so I wouldn't raise the turn, but for reasons other than what you've stated. I bias that hand range much more strongly towards things that make me less confident in the strength of a pair of jacks. Being in position means that if he checks the river, I can value bet and pretty much ensure that I get exactly one bet per street, which feels about right for this situation.

As played, I'm not folding TPTK for one more bet in a big pot HU.