4/8 lhe live, game is pretty quiet, some new younger guys just joined, playing somewhat smart but passive and loose
V is MA asian lady, loose somewhat aggro.
3 limps to me, I am in CO with JTo, I limp, V limps from the BTN, blinds call. 7 way action, 3.5 BB
Flops comes T52r
Checks to me, I bet, V raises, 2 cold calls, I close out the action getting 14:1 I call. 7.5 BB
Turn is a 7 checks to me, I check V bets, 2 calls..again I close out the action, getting 10:1 I talk myself into a call. What am I hoping for on the river? 11.5 BB
River is a K, checks to V who bets, 2 folds, I am HU getting 12 to 1 I call ready to muck.
For whatever it contributes to the thread, "the bible" (SSHE) says any two offsuit cards 10 or higher are playable in late position when there is no raise. I just did a quick stove and JTo actually shows an equity edge over a range of any suited, broadway, pair, connected cards and ace.
When I'm in the CO or BTN after 3 or more limpers at tables full of passive players, I raise or fold. I want the option of taking a 4-card flop. I'm obviously more careful if I think one or more villains will 3-bet me pre and/or donk the flop, but in the games I play that's a rare bird.
I think river is a fold! or a Raise! what hand does she play this way???? She raised ur bet on the flop...flop is dry and rainbow, maybe she is trying to buy a free card but with what hand..only 1 i can think of would be 4/3. Then the really telling part is the turn, it checks around to her and she bets? Why bet here if you don't have anything but a draw? and then she fires on the river when a King comes? Only hands I can think of are sets and hands like A10, Q10. ( hence, the raise, good chance you get her to fold those two hands) K10 also makes sense.
FWIW, I don’t try to make a soul read every hand. Sometimes when we play more fundamentally solid and stop trying to make the play we would make if we could see their cards, we’ll end up making better reads and being harder to play against.
When we make this call on the river, we only have to win like 9% of the time to make it profitable. So if you lose 91% of the time, you are making money. The villain having a set is one of those 91% of the time.
The huge error here would be to fold and let the villain take down the pot with a wheel draw or weirdly played bottom pair or T9 that they don’t even know they are bluffing with.
River raise is a bluff. Why would she bet the river? She must be better than a pair of tens with a strong kicker? or she is just overly aggro and is 3 barreling air, which is hard for me to believe. So chances are she has you beat here. I mean King falls on river and ur checking down hands like A10, Q10, JJ, QQ. .....K is in our range, a check raise on the river might get the hands I just mentioned to fold...maybe lol...
if it’s either a bluff or a really strong hand I don’t see what bluff raising accomplishes. we are way too high up in our range to turn it into a bluff.
I guess real question is, is the 9% enough? You say we can lose 91% of time and still show a profit, ok. However, what if we are losing more like 98% of the time are we still showing a profit? And I know ur going to say there is no way you could be that sure, i tend to disagree. Question.....I know the "value bet - fold to raise" is pretty common. So if you're holding .. JJ, QQ, A10 are you betting here and folding to a raise? or this not one of those situations?
Your check raise needs to work over 14.8% of the time to be profitable. Are you getting 15% of their range or more to fold on the river when they are getting 14.5:1 on a call and your story makes absolutely no sense?
If you are 98% sure you are beat then logically folding river is the best play.
You didn't answer question...if your holding...QQ, JJ, A10 is this one of those Bet/Fold situations where ur folding to a raise? throw in an over played Q10 and you might be at 15% of their possible range. And you say if you're 98% sure its correct to fold...is it correct to fold @ 95%? or 94%? sure?
I wouldn’t ever have those hands in this situation because I would have had to limp in preflop. And no I’m not folding them if I somehow did play them this way because the line makes no sense. I will just call and lose to some crazy two pair if I have to.
Also doesn’t really matter what I would do, it’s what we think our opponent would do. Agressive loose players don’t fold for one more bet with very strong hands.
Also doesn’t really matter what I would do, it’s what we think our opponent would do. Agressive loose players don’t fold for one more bet with very strong hands.[/QUOTE]
They are EXACTLY, the ones who would fold in this situation. They are the ones value betting thin and folding to a raise. once again the ole bet, fold if raised, idea.
