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An example from a book An example from a book

07-23-2024 , 07:39 PM
Prototypical 9-handed SSHE table. We are in MP with 98. UTG and UTG+1 limp, we limp along, CO and BTN call, SB completes, BB checks.

7 players, 7sb, flop AK9

UTG checks, UTG+1 bets. Are we doing anything but raise here?

According to Flopzilla, if I give the 6 villains a range of any 2 broadways, any pocket pair, any 2 suited, most offsuit connectors and a few offsuit aces, I have 35% equity before seeing any flop action (i.e. if someone bets this flop they probably have an ace).

One thing I'm confused about though, is it says there's a 9% chance each villain has a flush draw. I'm honestly not sure if that means there's a 54% chance at least one of the 6 of them has a flush draw. Also, it took the A and K out of their ranges but left in all combos that include the 9 or 8 even though I as player 1 had only that combo - I don't know how to make my one possible hand "dead".

But the point is, I'm not at all worried about making a flush and losing to a bigger one - if it happens, the other guy can have my chips.
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07-23-2024 , 10:14 PM
Raise pre. As played, call
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07-24-2024 , 01:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ninefingershuffle
Raise pre. As played, call
+1. One thing to remember is that, in most hands, the person with the best made hand and the person with the best draw hog all the equity. Raising gets second best made hands and weak draws to fold, even though you want those people to stay in to pad the pot. It also opens you up to being 3bet and will likely deprive you of the ability to raise a big street if you improve.
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07-24-2024 , 02:06 AM
Raise pre is nice. We want to give people the chance to fold something like K2ss which dominates us but will probably fold to a raise. Also gives us more ways to win the hand than just making a real hand.

As played calling flop all day. We’re never getting a higher flush draw to fold anyway and we don’t mind someone coming along for the ride behind us with gutshots and backdoors.
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07-24-2024 , 12:26 PM
I was leaning raise pre but also raising flop. don't listen to me.

Say A2s or 65-76-78s pre same spot, also raise pre?
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07-28-2024 , 03:11 PM
Before I respond to anything else, I think I figured out a couple things: In Flopzilla, if I want to specify that my range is a specific hand and take that specific hand out of the villains' ranges, I think what I have to do is specify my 2 cards in the "Dead Cards" pane. I'm not sure if there's an easier/better way to do it than that but it looks like it does work - all combos including a 9 or 8 of spades look like they've been omitted from each villain's range.

The second part of my question was, "What is the probability that at least one of the villains has a bigger flush draw than I do?". This may or may not have anything to do with the decision at the decision point, but as a former mathematician I am genuinely curious.

If I give the villains the range I describe in the OP, that's 555 combos. 21 of those 555 combos are a better flush draw than mine. That's 3.8%. So there's a 96.2% chance that the first villain DOESN'T have a flush draw better than mine. To calculate the probability that ANY of the 6 villains have a flush draw bigger than mine, I calculate the probability that NONE of them do and subtract that from 100%. The probability that NONE of them do is 96.2% ^ 6 = 79.2%. So if the preflop ranges I assigned the villains are reasonable, there's about a 20.8% chance that one of the villains has a bigger flush draw than I do.

Sound reasonable?
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07-28-2024 , 03:33 PM
Second-guessing myself in the OP, it's hitting me that our raise forces 5 villains to call two bets cold. I didn't catch that the first time.

What if our starting hand would have been K9 instead of the starting hand in the OP? With a made but vulnerable hand would we WANT to raise here and blast people out of the pot (or overcharge them to stay in it)?
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07-28-2024 , 05:26 PM
I don't think flopzilla works that way but I don't know for sure. You shouldn't have to do that.

While I don't think this pot is "big," there are enough gunshots available in people's limping ranges that I think raising is better than calling with K9.
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07-28-2024 , 08:35 PM
Yeah k9 you want people to fold. 98 you want people to call
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