Live 8/16, table is tighter than usual tonight. Lots of chopped blinds and 2-3 to flop for one bet instead of usual 5-6 to a flop for a raise. I hopped on a 1/3 NL list because I'm trying to diversify my game and I'm not going to pay a 1 small bet per pot rake if people aren't pouring in dead money.

UTG+1 is a calling station and pretty timid postflop when he hits. Maybe played 2 hours with him.

BB just sat down, hero had maybe only seen him play an orbit. Seems LAG. Very chatty (good fun chatter, hero hopes he'll loosen up the table) but plays this hand quiet.

Pre-flop:
Hero dealt AT UTG and raises it up.
UTG+1 calls
Folds to BB who goes "eh I complete".

Flop:
9:T:T:
BB checks
Hero bets
UTG+1 calls
BB calls

Turn:
8
BB checks
Hero bets
UTG+1 raises
BB 3!
Hero folds?

I've seen UTG+1 not raise a few big hands. He's one of those people who's almost always short stacked and calling until 2 chips before all in then will raise just to get it in. He won't spew full raises just to get it in though and has some money behind at the moment.

BB maybe could wait for turn to raise trips with worse kicker heads up but check/3-betting the calling station raise is pretty strong.

Wow. I would never fold this hand ever.

What ranges are you putting on villains for calling down to make sense here? I put UTG+1 on a made straight or full house the vaste majority of the time here given how passive he is. You think BB is spewing a one card straight draw often enough here?

Two hours is maybe 70-80 hands. You also have to remember that live players can change over the course of a session. Some start off trying to be highly disciplined and then get bored and start splashing around. I think the read is nowhere near strong enough to fold this hand.

I'm not thinking about folding until the river, and I'm not folding for one bet.

Note that your read is that BB just sat down. He can't know he's check/3-betting a calling station.

It's two bets. BB check 3!

Yes. I'm not folding the turn ever. And I'm not folding the river for one bet.

PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.12.2.1

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 15.7% 11.8% 7.76% [AhTh]
Player 2: 33.1% 27.8% 10.5% {99-88, ATs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, T2s+, 76s, ATo, KTo, QTo+, JTo, 76o}
Player 3: 51.2% 45.5% 11.5% {99-88, ATs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, T8s+, 76s, ATo, KTo, QTo+, JTo, T8o+}

Board: [9c Ts Td 8h ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

Monte Carlo Simulation: 720000 trials

Notes:

Without giving either player any draws/semi-bluffs, we still have enough hot/cold equity to continue based solely on the immediate price we’re getting.

It’s bleak for sure, but LHE is a game for optimists. If you tend to be a pessimist, your style may be better suited for NL.

So in the realm of optimism: suppose BB isn't there, bet/3-bet turn?

So we open, passive fish cc, HU to flop. We bet, fish calls. Turn we bet, fish raises, we...?

Call and x/c the river unless the river is an A, then x/r.

I call. We can boat up, we can chop, we can have the best hand sometimes, we can make quads. Hell yeah I call.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'd lean towards a bet/call hu. He could very easily have a straight and we all know that smooth call range is chock full of QJ. As played, nh. Think about the egg on our face if we call the 2 cold on the flop and then UTG+1 comes over the top w a backraise. Now we're putting in 4 small bets w the worst hand.

I think posters are missing out on a key detail. He WAS chatty. But he played this hand quiet. And I don't think it's a mystery why

I'd be cautious of reading into that detail on the first orbit. This could be more of a retroactive read than a live read. ("Based on the whole night's experience, here's an additional detail that plays into the narrative I want to portray.")

We also don't know when he went silent. If he went silent preflop, it could be AA/KK that got himself confused when he decided to slowplay. He could also have a hand like QT and isn't sure what he's doing on this connected board.

Tried to communicate what I saw in the moment but Aaron is correct that I had not played with BB enough yet to make much of that.

Result: