1/2 limit (I'm seat 3)

PREFLOP

- Cut off open limped
- I raised with KJ on button
- Big blind called (Weak play, tight preflop, loose/passive post flop, will bluff)

FLOP

- Checked to me and i bet with KJ
- BB calls and CO folds

TURN

- BB checks
- I check

RIVER (BLANK)

- BB bets
- I call
- BB shows KhTh





My Logic:

Opponent is getting correct odds to draw on the turn and i gain nothing by betting ... especially if i get check raised.

If he wiffs the river he might bluff and give me the bet i passed up on the turn. Also, it might prevent him from bluffing in the future for cheap showdowns.

I'm definitely betting turn with 2 pair or better, top pair + flush draw, and AsJs.

If figure i lose more than i win if i bet the turn in this situation.

Is my play/reasoning sound?

I think you're not getting raised very often at all on this turn and definitely want to bet to collect calls from Jx (his most likely holding, which is in horrible shape) as well as some turned middle pair + gutter type hands like T8. Sometimes he turned two pair or a straight and you'll get jammed, but it's happening less often than you being called by worse.

Isn't the river going to bring a crappy card about 50% of the time that will cause me to check behind or lose 1 more bet to a made hand? Add that to the times i do get check raised or he's calling down with a weak queen ... i'd assume at best i break even in the long run betting the turn.

What river is a crappy card? You have second pair and an open ender. Any A or 9 gives you the effective nuts. Any card below a 7 (non heart) doesn't change the board and gives you a chance to bet for value.

Mostly, you have to think about his range. Can he have a straight? Yes. Can he have two pair? Yes. Can he have lol-slowplayed a hand like 55? Yes. But he's going to have way more worse jacks, flopped straight draws that turned a pair of T's, heart draws, A hi spade draws, pocket pairs 22-88, and hands like A5o. Against that range, you need to bet

I'd always bet bet bet here unless the river is an 8 or 9. However, if I had opened from utg at a 6 max table, I might check the turn.

I don't know about you, but I'd bet a 9 on the river because I like K high straights .

Also, OP, after rereading your post, it seems you're not sure why you're betting or checking all that well. Remember, if your opponent has a draw, he is a solid underdog. Even a draw as strong as, say, AhTh, just has 3 Kings, 2 T's, and 8 other hearts that can come and beat you (giving you a solid 70% or so equity). So your bet does serve purpose: value. Now he might call down AhTh anyway, but the only way you're guaranteed to get another bet from a worse ten (like T8) or a flush draw, or a 5xss that turned a spade draw is by betting the turn.

You also don't seem confident in your ranges. Say your opponent does check raise you; are you really calling unimproved? Think of all the stronger hands you can have her (tons of straights, sets, two pairs, overpairs, Qx). Your opponent intuitively knows this (even if they can't spell it out), so they won't make reckless check raise bluffs on the turn without some serious equity (like maybe Kh8h sticks a xr bluff in here). So you bet to get value, and then if raised, you can call knowing that you likely have 8 outs when behind, and can play poker on rivers (leaning towards fold).

I'm used to so many maniacs at ignition. Right now i have 3 at one short handed table. They're raising UTG with T4o, 4 betting 22 from the SB against 3 players PF, etc.

I guess my perspective lately has shifted towards controlling tough situations and getting blown off hands while letting them hang themselves by bluffing too much. It appears more profitable but i don't have much hard data to back that up.

However, looking at what you wrote and Equilab, i definitely have too much equity on the turn vs his range not to bet. I do have a personal weakness of way over thinking things (not just poker).

If you know what he has, you are a favourite, and you should bet. If you're scared because of three broadways, and you're either way ahead, way behind, then this may be a reason to check. You need to realize though that you do not know exactly what he has.

Also, QT is possible in this scenario.

This isn't a close situation, you have a really good hand. And if they're maniacs, call down if checkraised instead of fold river.

+1

Really, the turn just has to start with a bet, and then you play poker after that (fold to a tight player, call or fold to a loose player depending on what flavor they are).