It has come to my attention that auto c-betting the flop is no longer in fashion like it was in the oughts (200x, good old pokerstars/full-tilt days).

Live 8-16. BB seems TAG, don't have much history with him.

Pre-flop:
Folds to Hero on BTN, raise 87.
SB folds
BB calls

Flop:
3QJ
BB checks
Hero ?

So, do I check back the flop to get a free card after this horrid flop or do I keep the pressure on? Why?

In before the "simulation" players tell me I'm wrong.

What better hands fold if you bet?

What kind of decision do you have if you are raised?

What can you improve to if you check behind?

I'd bet/fold flop

If the Tag just calls, I would bet the turn if an Ace, King, or spade hit. I'd barrell off UIP if I picked up the flush draw. If I get called when just the King or Ace hits I would probably give up. I'd check a 9 or T non spade turn and just hope to spike the gutter. If a complete blank hits the turn I'm just giving up. I'd bet/fold a turned 7 or 8.

This hand is toward the bottom of your range so I don't think this would be a good check back.

BTW...maybe this can be a continuous thread where we can throw in situations regarding check/backs and talk about it. Also, this is what I would do absent specific reads. I need to improve this part of my game. I'm looking forward to other thoughts.

What better hands fold (correct me if this is wishful thinking): suited combos that aren't diamonds, KXo/s, T7-T8o/s, 98s/o with no spades or diamonds. I think most Ax and pocket pair will call because my range is so wide here. I have no doubt my image is aggressive. That is only a small part of his range so my fold equity seems low.

If raised: I feel like I have to fold. The hell would I be peeling for? Bdfd and 3rd pair? Check raise is showing more strength than a turn bet if I check back. Turn bet after I check could be a stab with air so if I spike a pair it's worth call down.

If check turn behind: like I said his turn betting range is much wider when I check behind so if I do spike pair or flush draw it'll make sense to call turn.

I'm down for making this continuous as long as we make sure we give each situation a chance to be discussed.

Also, if I'm doing this with the bottom of my range then I could balance with when I flop deck crippling monsters, no? If I build history with this dude and he would be confused...

I’d bet fold this flop. Vs very aggressive opponents I might check.

I like to bet hands that: 1.) have no equity; 2.) have no show down value; and 3.) you can easily fold if raised (see #1). This qualifies. I’d certainly consider 89s as a checkback.

.

without notes i just check, because you can't make critical mistake with this hand. You almost always behind.

as to me i never bet an ace

This is a flop I would be checking back at a high frequency. However with this specific hand we have so little equity that I think we should bet to get him to fold hands that are better than ours but have no pair/no draw like kxs.

Because he will fold A6

Wow there is a lot of disagreement between veteran posters. Either this is a very narrow edge decision or there is a piece of the puzzle missing from our evaluation. Sounds like I need to wake up early with some coffee, poker stove, and paper-pencil.

I think it's pretty close.

The number of available draws affect the profitability of bluffs. At a point, bottom of our range bluffs become unprofitable(or less profitable than checking), due to the number of draws(high opponent call/raise frequencies cause this effect). Think about the spectrum of flop texture:

AAA<----------------------->456r

On the left side, we have low opponent call/raise frequencies, and on the right side, we have high opponent call/raise frequencies. The QJ3 flop is somewhere in the grey area.

I think it's a mistake to have too strong of a check back range especially in a blind steal situation. If this situation is coming up a lot then it's probably not a good game. I think balance is slightly overrated at non high limit games.

I think something to consider is whether you can take this down with a two barrel or maybe a three barrel. Obviously checking takes this out of the equation. I wouldn't expect the BB to fold a lot on this flop but there are some hands he will. Depending on how loosely he peels there is a decent chance he will fold to a turn bet. If we didn't have the back door flush draw and we thought the BB was agro, I would consider just checking and giving up unless I spiked a 7 or 8.

It's good to know if this guy flats preflop with his whole range.

A lot of TAG's would donk a turned Ace. If a TAG just called on this flop I would put him on a weak peel or small to mid pair. I'd expect a TAG to CR a Q or J.

I agree!

This sounds good.

Good stuff!

Thanks!

It does seem to be a good rule of thumb. I spent the morning crunching villains hand combos to see what EV of hero b/f is. I state results first. Assumptions are below. Feel free to take stabs at the assumptions.

Results: If we bet/fold and have 0 equity when called the net EV of b/f is .8 small bets. We have 23% equity against villain range and if we include that to make the cost of getting called hurt less then EV of b/f is .9ish. EV of a check back (pot tmes equity) is .78.

However, I do not see how on earth we are going to realize that equity because knowing when we'd be good at showdown would be really difficult. So our implied check back EV (i.e., EV based on having to play the rest of this **** hand) could be much much lower.

So... I'm convinced this is indeed a b/f given assumption tag is straightforward that I go deeper into below.


Assumptions
Rake + tip is one small bet (yep, rough but typical for 8/16 I'm open to comments about steal range with this high of rake). So on flop pot is 3.5 small bets.

He has a narrow-ish 3bet pre-flop range of top 7-8% of hands and a wide defend range so he's coming to the flop with: 88-22,A9s-A2s,KJs-K3s,Q5s+,J5s+,T6s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,54s,ATo-A2o,KJo-K4o,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,97o+,87o,76o

He c/r top pair any kicker, and big draws like oesfd, gutshot sfd, and captain america (pair + fd). 15%ish of combos

He c/c any middle pair, bottom pair, pocket pair, oesd, any fd, any Ahi. 44% of combos.

He c/f rest of range. 40%ish of combos.

I haven't perfectly update all the combos hero's hand blocks in villain's presumed check/call and check/raise range but I did in his check/fold range so if I keep adjusting the EV of hero b/f would get even higher. As I'm getting tired of spending my day counting combos and I'm already convinced this is a bet/fold I am stopping there since I think I hit a lower bound on b/f EV.

Most of the ev of checking the flop comes from hitting a pair and getting to showdown for free, at which point we receive a fraction of the pot that depends on how often we have the best hand. Our decision when facing a bet is gonna be close to 0ev, so we don’t really get much ev when facing a bet.

This is a really good example and one where I typically bet simply because it is my only chance to win the pot.

I am really struggling to find spots where I should check back rather than cbet. I'm assuming it should be spots where board texture makes it unlikely villain will fold a better hand and we can really benefit from the free card.

Here I don't see much benefit to a free card so I just blindly pound the bet button. Then I convince myself that a second barrel will get him to fold. Then with no hope at all on the river I fire that final magic bullet trying to will my way to victory

Betting is not the only way to win this pot, we can catch a decent turn card and I'd rather do it for free.

Maybe bottom or middle pair on dry board against LAGy opponent is a place to check back... If he is going to have no draw and you have some showdown value then free card is not costly. My first example is drawy heavy flop and no showdown value which means bet, evaluate/bet, evaluate/bet