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Originally Posted by callipygian
Basically opponent has to bluff with worse hands greater than 1/P frequency on the turn but less than 1/(P+2) frequency on the river.
You don't think that the dynamic of your hand possibly getting stronger changes this? Any time I imagine the worst hand I'm calling with on the turn, I can always imagine a river card that significantly changes the strength of my hand relative to the rest of my range. I'm always able to imagine pulling ahead of something else. So after the river card, my range has been reshuffled a bit, and things don't match up the way they did before. The various categories of hands get rearranged, and that changes everything.
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I think that's a pretty realistic - albeit uncommon - scenario. It shows up when you have a nitty image and they bluff the turn but when you call they're like oh he's got something; or when they're bluffing with a strong hand and decide they'd like a free showdown too.
The claim is obviously true if your opponent *only* bets the nuts on the river. So I know it's possible. But that's seems fairly unrealistic. What you describe definitely seems odd, but I guess it could be possible.
But under normal-ish conditions (defined by "the big blind is a strong limit holdem player"), I just don't see this happening. It seems to me that you and your opponent would both have to have quite polarized ranges (so that your hand improving cannot cause it to shift that much higher in the ranking) and that your opponent must be checking behind with an abnormally high frequency.