There were multiple questions in the original post. I should have tried to answer it this way.
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Originally Posted by Bob148
I raise on the button with A7o, small blind folds, big blind calls.
J45r
Big blind checks, I bet, big blind check raises, and I?
How profitable do you think calling is?
Possibly profitable, but possibly depends on what you’re opening range is compared to BB’s defending range and his check raise range. Based on range you provided earlier, I think continuing at 7.5 to 1 (direct odds flop to turn) is good.
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Let’s assume I call.
Turn 4o
Big blind bets.
How profitable do you think calling is?
Possibly profitable at 5.25 to 1. Again depends on your opening range, his defend range, BB’s check raise range, and whether or not you ever 3-bet the flop ever.
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Let’s assume I call.
River Ko
Big blind bets.
How profitable do you think calling is?
IMO depends on the ranges on how you got here like above…but I’m guessing possibly profitable at 6.25 to 1.
Board run out is Flop: Broadway / Wheel / Wheel (no flush draws unpaired), Turn: pair Wheel card (no backdoor flush draws), River: Broadway (unpaired).
[B1 W1 W2 W1 B2]
You have an Ace and a Middle card [A M] which blocks some straights, and the hand began as a button open vs BB defend. (Wide range vs wide range).
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I ask because I’ve been thinking about how to play bluffcatchers on future streets when faced with a close decision. Seems to me that the profitability of the bluffcatcher isn’t neutral as some may believe.
I don’t know what “
Seems to me that the profitability of the bluffcatcher isn’t neutral as some may believe” means. If you mean that if you determine a hand as a possible or likely bluff catcher on one street, and then once you get to a later street you start to see that the value (or it's location in your range) has changed, then I agree.
But the way I think of it is that because what is a bluff catcher on at one point in the hand (in isolation or without any future cards) could change as more cards come. By that I mean if the game was hypothetically pre-flop and flop only, then, A7o might be a bluff catcher on the flop. BUT as soon as the turn is dealt, that could change things in that an Ace or a 7 on the turn or river might make A7o a value hand.
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I think the profitability of the bluffcatcher will decrease as this hand progresses.
I don’t know if I’d phrase it this way. My understanding/thought process is once additional cards are dealt on each new street, the spectrum and range of hands you have changes as does the rankings or order of the hands that remain. What was once a bluff catcher could turn into a value hand, or what was once a value hand could turn into a bluff catcher, or a bluff. In the initial example provided, maybe 4x is a bluff catcher on the flop, but when the 4 pairs on the turn then maybe 4x becomes a value hand. Or, in the example provided, maybe 88 is a value hand on the flop, but becomes a bluff catcher on the river. Or maybe if another 8 hits on the river it becomes a value hand. I’m not saying it is one or the other, just that as a hand progresses things change. Also I wouldn't think if it necessarily that a bluff catcher loses (or could lose) profitability on subsequent streets—just that a specific hand might have moved and might be a different section or category of your range of hands.
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Does this imply that any hand that can profitably call the turn, and can beat a bluff on the river, should be a call on the river?
I think you addresses this in some of the earlier posts and responses, but that seems like a vague generalization that I don’t know how to answer. I would imaging the answer is yes, but you’d have to know how often is your opponent buffing? How big is the pot? Are there other hands that could be a bluff catcher in that spot? I think other people have given examples.
IMO your question of how to play "buffcatchers" on the flop, and then what do you do from street to street on various turn and river cards seems like an odd way to phrase it or think about it. But that just might be me. I’m happy to hear otherwise
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I would think that another way of thinking about a specific hand in our range, and then what to do going forward on various type turns and rivers might make it easier to develop a thought process going forward. For example, thinking at the table “given what the prior action was and what I would have gotten here with, based on this river card certain hands have moved from value to bluff catcher, and other hands have moved from bluff catcher to nuts, or semi-bluff to bluff…you get the point.
I agree trying to get a better heuristic model to use at the table would be easier than trying to memorize PioSolver
so I like this thread.
Almost forgot. IDK one of the prior posters suggested starting on river and moving backwards. Maybe that is the better way to think about it I've just never heard clear way to go that route.