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Old 01-20-2018, 10:57 AM   #1
DalTXColtsFan
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The betting on the come thread

I worry sometimes that I play draws too aggressively. I'd like to use this thread to discuss situations where we flop and/or turn a big draw and discuss whether b/c or c/c is the better play:

For this hand, assume I'm at a table where preflop raises are rare and postflop raises almost always mean two pair or better.

I'm UTG with QTs and limp (standard, no?). 3 more limpers and both blinds call.

6sb, 6 players, flop is J93r with one of my suit. Both blinds check.

Is this a b/c or a c/c? I almost always b/c here b/c (pun intended) of my pot equity. Assume I bet and get 3 callers.

5bb, 4 players. If the turn puts another of my suit on the board, to me that feels like a trivial b/c given that if raised I'll be looking at at LEAST 8 to 1 on a call. Even if I don't pick up a fourflush to go along with my straight, I feel like a bet is a small mistake at worst given my pot equity and the small chance of getting a baby pair or Ax to fold. Even if a hand like 86 or 65 folds, that's still good for me because that's less cards on the river that can let them pull ahead of me. As played, assume I bet and got 1 caller.

7bb, 2 players. River bricks me and is not an A. I almost always b/f here feeling like there's at least a 1 in 8 chance he had a hand like AK (yes, people limp AK pre in these games - a LOT), AQ, KQ, ace-rag, king-rag et al to fold. If it's an A it's an easy c/f.

Is this evidence of a leak in my game?

The other thing to think about is FUD. There are some tables where villains pick up that I'm capable of a triple-barrel bluff and there are some where they're simply not paying any attention to me at all. I'm really not sure how much difference this makes one way or the other because usually by the time a hand gets to the river there are at least 8bb in the pot and the villains are only going to fold total trash no matter what.

Other than an A, is there any other turn card that I truly don't want to see? Obviously I'd LOVE to see a K or an 8, but any other card completes either a pair or a longshot draw at best. And are there any other turn/river combinations that would turn a bricked river into an easy c/f for me? Am I really afraid of a 76, 65, 54 et al on the river?

I also didn't say who the callers were on the flop. If 2 of the 3 callers on the flop were the blinds and they both checked to me on the turn, that would lean me more toward a turn bet than if there were 3 people to all act behind me.

I also didn't say whether or not I had position on the river. Given how polite most villains are about donking the river when they make a big hand I'd be more happy to bet in position than OOP.

Thoughts will be appreciated.

Last edited by DalTXColtsFan; 01-20-2018 at 11:14 AM.
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Old 01-20-2018, 11:39 AM   #2
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Re: The betting on the come thread

One other thing (and there may be other one other things) is that at tables like these, villains are not going to raise AJ, KJ, QJ, J8 etc. type of hands. They're usually just going to call just like they would with 87, 76, 54, 3x or 9x. I haven't done a combo count to see exactly what percentage that would be, but the point is, at these tables, the c/c flop and turn range is very wide for most of these villains.
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Old 01-20-2018, 05:22 PM   #3
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Re: The betting on the come thread

I’m never a fan of the first in open limp but the rest of your reasoning seems responsible. Always play a draw in such as way as to maximize your equity because in multiway pits it is very hard to win unimproved
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Old 01-21-2018, 12:55 AM   #4
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Re: The betting on the come thread

Don't open limp.

As played, as long as there's 3+ opponents, I'll put all the bets in possible on the flop when I have the open ended to the nuts both ways + BDFD. That's a huge draw.

As played I bet the turn after the flop action and evaluate what to do on the river. Shutting down if I don't hit a K, Q or 9 mostly.
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Old 01-21-2018, 01:25 AM   #5
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Re: The betting on the come thread

Just bet if enough people will call that exceeds your pot equity. This stuff about Ax folding or 86 or whatever doesn't matter, you don't have the best hand with Q-high, so you don't need them to fold.

When you're drawing, you make money if the number of people call exceeds your odds of hitting your draw. If they don't, then you are losing money (unless you successfully bluff).

I think you should listen to your wife.
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Old 01-21-2018, 03:03 AM   #6
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Re: The betting on the come thread

I think you should just raise the QTs pre
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Old 01-21-2018, 05:36 AM   #7
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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Originally Posted by SetofJacks View Post
I think you should just raise the QTs pre
Seconded. If you're in a 4/8 game where you can't raise this hand utg, rack up.
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Old 01-21-2018, 11:11 AM   #8
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Re: The betting on the come thread

I don't understand why people are so happy to raise this UTG. QTs is completely crushed by TT+, AQso, QJso, KQso, ATso and KTso. That's 8.3% of all hands. 4/8 villains will coldcall all of these hands all day. With 8 people to act after me that's about a 50% chance that somebody has me crushed. And that's not even taking into account hands like AKso, AJso and KJso which are ahead of me but not crushing me, plus any ace or any king is ahead of me.

I'm only going to flop a flush draw 11% of the time plus an OESD another, what, 5% of the time?

So aren't I just killing my implied odds by raising way out of position here?

Obviously there are players who LOVE raising this UTG, so I'm willing to open-mindedly listen to arguments. In fact, I'll appreciate it.
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Old 01-21-2018, 12:17 PM   #9
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Re: The betting on the come thread

Agreed

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Old 01-21-2018, 01:32 PM   #10
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan View Post
I don't understand why people are so happy to raise this UTG. QTs is completely crushed by TT+, AQso, QJso, KQso, ATso and KTso. That's 8.3% of all hands. 4/8 villains will coldcall all of these hands all day. With 8 people to act after me that's about a 50% chance that somebody has me crushed. And that's not even taking into account hands like AKso, AJso and KJso which are ahead of me but not crushing me, plus any ace or any king is ahead of me.

I'm only going to flop a flush draw 11% of the time plus an OESD another, what, 5% of the time?

So aren't I just killing my implied odds by raising way out of position here?

Obviously there are players who LOVE raising this UTG, so I'm willing to open-mindedly listen to arguments. In fact, I'll appreciate it.
Ok then fold.
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Old 01-21-2018, 04:12 PM   #11
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan View Post
I don't understand why people are so happy to raise this UTG. QTs is completely crushed by TT+, AQso, QJso, KQso, ATso and KTso. That's 8.3% of all hands. 4/8 villains will coldcall all of these hands all day. With 8 people to act after me that's about a 50% chance that somebody has me crushed. And that's not even taking into account hands like AKso, AJso and KJso which are ahead of me but not crushing me, plus any ace or any king is ahead of me.

I'm only going to flop a flush draw 11% of the time plus an OESD another, what, 5% of the time?

So aren't I just killing my implied odds by raising way out of position here?

Obviously there are players who LOVE raising this UTG, so I'm willing to open-mindedly listen to arguments. In fact, I'll appreciate it.
I'm happy to raise this hand pre because the average 4/8 player is bad and will call with worse. I will not over play my hand and they will make mistakes. "Because I have the best hand" is not the only reason to raise pre. I'm looking for excuses to play with bad players, two suited Broadways is a great one to me.
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Old 01-21-2018, 04:54 PM   #12
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Re: The betting on the come thread

Quote:
QTs is completely crushed by TT+, AQso, QJso, KQso, ATso and KTso. That's 8.3% of all hands. 4/8 villains will coldcall all of these hands all day. With 8 people to act after me that's about a 50%
Show your work please
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Old 01-21-2018, 11:14 PM   #13
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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QTs is completely crushed by TT+, AQso, QJso, KQso, ATso and KTso. That's 8.3% of all hands.
The 8.3% figure came from PokerStove, which I trust. I'm player 1 and there are 8 more players to act. The probabilty that player 2 does NOT have me crushed is 91.7%. The probably that neither player 2 nor player 3 have me crushed is 91.7% * 91.7%. Extrapolating this to 8 more players is 91.7% ^ 8 which is almost exactly 50%. A 50% change that someone has me crushed is also a 50% chance they don't have me crushed.

If I add AKso, AJso and KJso (hands that are ahead of QTs but don't necessary have QTs crushed), that's now 11.9% of my hands. 88.1% ^ 8 = 32%, so there's a 68% chance that someone else is starting out ahead of or crushing me.
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Old 01-22-2018, 12:06 AM   #14
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Re: The betting on the come thread

8.3% of possible combos. Not possible combos left when we have a Q and a T
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Old 01-22-2018, 12:38 AM   #15
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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Originally Posted by ZOMG_RIGGED! View Post
8.3% of possible combos. Not possible combos left when we have a Q and a T
If I'm counting correctly, if we have, for example, QT that reduces the 110 combos to 87, which is about 6.5% instead of 8.3%. 93.5% ^ 8 = 58% so there's only a 42% chance we're completely crushed. It still sucks though LOL.
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Old 01-22-2018, 01:00 AM   #16
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Re: The betting on the come thread

I feel like that number shouldn’t be odd
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Old 01-22-2018, 10:02 AM   #17
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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I'm happy to raise this hand pre because the average 4/8 player is bad and will call with worse. I will not over play my hand and they will make mistakes. "Because I have the best hand" is not the only reason to raise pre. I'm looking for excuses to play with bad players, two suited Broadways is a great one to me.
Out of curiosity, how do play a queen- or ten-high dry board?
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Old 01-22-2018, 02:48 PM   #18
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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Originally Posted by DonkeyOnTilt View Post
I'm happy to raise this hand pre because the average 4/8 player is bad and will call with worse. I will not over play my hand and they will make mistakes. "Because I have the best hand" is not the only reason to raise pre. I'm looking for excuses to play with bad players, two suited Broadways is a great one to me.
This. If raising makes you uncomfortable, fold it. In LHE, I've always thought of suited broadway hands as hands I want to build a big pot with pre flop. As long as you make good decisions post flop raising this UTG at 4/8 live should be standard.
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Old 01-22-2018, 03:34 PM   #19
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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I feel like that number shouldn’t be odd
3 choose 2 is odd, so there are an odd number of QQ and QT and QJs combos remaining.
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Old 01-22-2018, 03:37 PM   #20
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan View Post
Out of curiosity, how do play a queen- or ten-high dry board?
Not all dry boards are equal. If its like 224 rainbow I'm probably checking because no ore flop calling hand is ever folding this flop. If its like J54 one of my suits I'm gonna fire.
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Old 01-22-2018, 03:43 PM   #21
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Re: The betting on the come thread

So for the sake of discussion, let me revise the hand:

For this hand, assume I'm at a table where preflop raises are rare and postflop raises almost always mean two pair or better.

I'm UTG with QTs and raise (standard, no?). 2 coldcallers, SB folds, BB calls.

8.5sb, 4 players, flop is J93r with one of my suit. BB checks.

Is this a b/c or a c/c? I almost always b/c here b/c (pun intended) of my pot equity. Assume I bet and get 2 callers and a BB fold.

5.5bb, 3 players. If the turn puts another of my suit on the board, to me that feels like a trivial b/c given that if raised I'll be looking at at LEAST 8.5 to 1 on a call. Even if I don't pick up a fourflush to go along with my straight, I feel like a bet is a small mistake at worst given my pot equity and the small chance of getting a baby pair or Ax to fold. Even if a hand like 86 or 65 folds, that's still good for me because that's less cards on the river that can let them pull ahead of me. As played, assume I bet and got 1 caller.

7.5bb, 2 players. River bricks me and is not an A. I almost always b/f here feeling like there's at least a 1 in 8 chance he had a hand like AK (yes, people limp AK pre in these games - a LOT), AQ, KQ, ace-rag, king-rag et al to fold. If it's an A it's an easy c/f.

NOW how are the decisions in the hand?
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Old 01-22-2018, 04:01 PM   #22
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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Not all dry boards are equal. If its like 224 rainbow I'm probably checking because no ore flop calling hand is ever folding this flop. If its like J54 one of my suits I'm gonna fire.
Oops I misunderstood. Flopped a pair? Bet!
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Old 01-22-2018, 04:05 PM   #23
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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Originally Posted by callipygian View Post
3 choose 2 is odd, so there are an odd number of QQ and QT and QJs combos remaining.
But he’s not including the other combos of QT. 3c2 is odd, but 3c2 *2 isn’t. And we’re looking for all combos of QJ, not just suited ones.
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Old 01-22-2018, 07:36 PM   #24
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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But he’s not including the other combos of QT. 3c2 is odd, but 3c2 *2 isn’t. And we’re looking for all combos of QJ, not just suited ones.
To be honest I'm not sure what he included or excluded. I'm just saying that the number being odd doesn't seem odd to me.
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Old 01-22-2018, 07:39 PM   #25
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Re: The betting on the come thread

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Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan View Post
So for the sake of discussion, let me revise the hand:

For this hand, assume I'm at a table where preflop raises are rare and postflop raises almost always mean two pair or better.

I'm UTG with QTs and raise (standard, no?). 2 coldcallers, SB folds, BB calls.

8.5sb, 4 players, flop is J93r with one of my suit. BB checks.

Is this a b/c or a c/c? I almost always b/c here b/c (pun intended) of my pot equity. Assume I bet and get 2 callers and a BB fold.

5.5bb, 3 players. If the turn puts another of my suit on the board, to me that feels like a trivial b/c given that if raised I'll be looking at at LEAST 8.5 to 1 on a call. Even if I don't pick up a fourflush to go along with my straight, I feel like a bet is a small mistake at worst given my pot equity and the small chance of getting a baby pair or Ax to fold. Even if a hand like 86 or 65 folds, that's still good for me because that's less cards on the river that can let them pull ahead of me. As played, assume I bet and got 1 caller.

7.5bb, 2 players. River bricks me and is not an A. I almost always b/f here feeling like there's at least a 1 in 8 chance he had a hand like AK (yes, people limp AK pre in these games - a LOT), AQ, KQ, ace-rag, king-rag et al to fold. If it's an A it's an easy c/f.

NOW how are the decisions in the hand?
Being the preflop raiser means that AA and JJ are in your range, so it shouldn't be surprising that b/c is more favored or less disfavored than if you limped and then b/c in an unraised pot.
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