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Bet or check turn in big pot Bet or check turn in big pot

04-14-2019 , 04:13 PM
Table is a ultra loose and getting a bit wild. I'm in HJ, a LAG that appears solid postflop player is on BTN, a bad LAG that chases too much in MP. Blinds and early positions are all calling stations.

Open to comments on any street

Pre-flop:
2nd biggest calling station ever limps in UTG+2.
Bad LAG raises, been raising wide since she sat down when stations limp.
Hero 3-bets red 99.
Good LAG takes 3 to the face cold on BTN.
SB station calls
MP station and bad LAG call.

Flop: 15 small bets
K56
Stations check
Bad LAG bets
I raise to try to thin the herd in this big pot because bad LAG is capable of lots of air here.
Good LAG calls two cold
Stations fold

Turn: 10.5 big bets
J

Bad LAG checks
Hero? Good LAG has not tended to dump dead money into the pot. Hero thinks he should check and get to showdown cheaply now.

Last edited by DrHoldemPhD; 04-14-2019 at 04:23 PM. Reason: Turn pot size
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote
04-14-2019 , 04:38 PM
Well played. I’d Check here
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote
04-15-2019 , 09:49 AM
I'd bet the turn. The pot is big and you easily could still have the best hand. I think it's time to be optimistic. The bad lag could have anything as you mentioned and the good lag didn't cap pre so I'm putting him on a lot of drawy type of hands. I feel like if you check you are gonna put yourself in a spot where you may be bluffed out of the pot. Your hand is vulnerable and the good lag may have called two on the flop in this big pot with hands like A5s, A6s, in addition to straight and flush draws.
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote
04-15-2019 , 11:22 AM
I would've thought that with bad lag, but good lag taking 3 cold preflop with Arags just seemed so unlikely in the moment. I had been playing with her for 5+ hours and her pre-flop m.o. was raise and overlimp a bit more than standard tag + super loose in blinds when pot was raised + live straddling always. I didn't think she would have a three cold range, I was shocked.
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote
04-16-2019 , 09:54 PM
Update.

Turn: J 10.5 big bets
Bad LAG checks
Hero checks
Good LAG checks

River: 2 10.5 big bets
Bad LAG checks
Hero?

In the moment my thought was good LAG could've made the most likely draw out there so I'd be better off c/cing than b/c to induce a bluff when ahead or not have to call a raise when behind.


Spoiler:
I check, good lag checks back and speed rolls black 77. Bad LAG mucks in disgust and I flip over my 99 and take the pot. Good LAG stops talking to me after when she was super chatty before and bad lag moves to my left and tries to 3-bet me light a couple times but gives up after an hour because it doesn't turn out well for her.
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote
04-16-2019 , 10:18 PM
I'd have played pre and the flop the same way.

Regarding the turn, FWIW I remember doing the math a long time ago for the probability when there are 2 overcards on the board that one of the villains has one of them. The probability was surprisingly high, and nobody with a J or K is folding. I'd check.
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote
04-16-2019 , 11:41 PM
I would reassess your evaluation of the good lag because her play seems awful in this hand.
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote
04-17-2019 , 01:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by checkraisdraw
I would reassess your evaluation of the good lag because her play seems awful in this hand.
Spoiler:
I definitely did after this hand
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote
04-18-2019 , 08:39 AM
How do you feel about the profitability of check calling the turn and river? Does this tell you anything about how you should construct your betting range on the turn?

Spoiler:
If your range for check calling the turn and river is exclusively (0ev bluffcatchers and draws) I would think that this presents a problem, which might be solved by checking more on the turn.
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote
04-18-2019 , 09:56 PM
My 3-bet pre-flop range is 77+, ATs+. AJo+, KQs/o and maybe A9s and KJs.

I raise the flop with 77+, AK, KQ, and AcXc.

I donk check 77-TT plus AcXc that doesn't have a pair (so only AcTc and AcQc, two combos).

I could add KK and JJ to my donk check range but I feel like that's missing out too much... a check through would be a travesty. So are you implying that I should bet out here with 77-TT and the AcXc to give more weigh to my bet range and get my monsters paid off?
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote
04-19-2019 , 12:38 AM
No. I’m trying to get you to think about the ev of checking vs betting the turn.
Bet or check turn in big pot Quote

      
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