This is a hypothetical situation.

Assume the BB to be a TAG, winner, flats pre. We haven't played with him much so we don't have a great feel if whether he tends to play fast on the flop or delay a lot. I'd assume on this board he may delay a decent bit with his good hands and some bluffs. I'd assume he is peeling most of his range. Maybe dumping J3, Q3 ish type hands.

He sees me as a TAG but doesn't have a great read on me.

I open button and he calls.

9c4s2h

I bet, he calls

9c4s2hQd

He checks.......what do you do with the following hands?

A3
AJ
KT
T8
67

X
X
X
X
B

I might value bet the AJ sometimes, but the rest I agree 100%.

If you're value betting AJ sometimes why not A3 as well?

Sure, reasonable question.

Short answer: We need to draw a line somewhere between betting and checking. Against a really station-y opponent in wide range spots, AJ is probably a fine vb, while against a less showdown bound one, you may want to move the line way up.

Long answer: It's not a naive assumption to say BB has his entire range (including Aces), but I don't think he's going to continue trapping in this spot (unless he has some read that OP is auto c-betting turn), so I'd heavily discount hands like KK+, 22, 44 from his range as I'd imagine he's looking to build a big pot. At the very least, I don't think he has all of his flopped value hands but has a lot of his wide range peels like K7, Q3s w/ BDFD (this is obviously bad for us), and the like. Plus, AJ has better equity versus BB's entire range, but terrible equity versus his check raise range, and I'd rather avoid facing a x/r with a hand like A3.

Caveat: I think rodeo's right after doing the math out when he leans towards checking. I can't really get us to 50% w/ AJ against a range against BB:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

299,904 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 942Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AJ	46.19%	135,352	6,336
A-K:70%, 4:70%, 2:70%, 65$s, Q:cc:70%, Q:ss:70%, Q:hh:70%, 98, 97, 96$s, T9, JT, T8:hh, T8:ss, T8:cc, J8:hh, J8:ss, J8:cc	53.81%	158,216	6,336

Given that he'll fold his K-hi's that aren't a gutter, our bet becomes really nothing more than a showdown bet, and this probably isn't the opponent to do that against.

So yeah, initial feeling likely incorrect .

I cbet first 3 almost always, last 2 I am more likely to checkback

What does betting A3 and KT accomplish? DM and I already looked into AJ and determined that's a marginal bet. Are you bluffing?

76 is a far better turn bet than KT because 76 actually folds out better hands and results in you winning the pot. You can check KT and win sometimes.

For a player that I don't have a lot of experience with, I bet with every hand and check behind on the river. Way too many players peal the flop and fold to the turn heads up.

If he calls, there aren't a lot of unmade hands I bet the river with. If it goes check check, you see how thin he was calling.

If he folds, I use this info to later to take advantage of his "just wanting to see a turn".

I'd bet KT and check everything else; I don't think that there's enough fold equity to make the less powerful semibluffs as profitable as checking back vs an opponent that never 3 bets preflop.

You can also check 76 and win sometimes, which makes checking profitable.

/exploitive mumbo jumbo

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If I was attempting to play an equilibrium strategy, I'd bet all of the listed hands at frequency, with the exception of AJ, which I would check 100%:

KT I would bet very often.
A3 I would bet often.
T8 I would bet sometimes.
76 I would bet rarely.

What merit does betting A3 and KT have? Bets have two purposes: Get called by worse and fold out better. What hands are we bluffcatching river with?

Bets before the river also get benefit from folding out worse hands.

So your strategy against a "TAG winner" is to barrel 2 streets with your entire BTN open range (the range that has less than top pair around 80% of the time and no pair over half the time)? This strategy gets pretty much eaten alive by anyone paying attention.

If we're ahead w/ KT and our opponent folds the turn, he likely had 3-6 outs tops anyway IMO. I'd expect a player to be combative with hands like 65s and T8 against a chronic two barreler (and someone who barrels KT on 942-Q definitely qualifies as such), as well as aggressively playing his value hands (98+). Plus, if someone is firing his entire range on the turn, I'll just fold more flops so that I can call and raise more turns.

This is only true on the river.

Preflop, flop and turn bets have many more ways of producing profits.

This may be true of most players, but my range is actually quite value heavy vs someone that never 3 bets preflop here. If you make this assumption based on 16 combos in my range, then I think that's a mistake.

Also, think about your turn bet calling range and your turn bet 3 betting range. If you're constructing your bluffing range with the hands from the bottom of your range, you're going to end up bet folding the turn a lot; you'll have less draws in your range when you bet call, which allows for much less board coverage; you'll have no strong semibluffs with which to bet 3 bet the turn.

Very much agree. The original quote is often repeated and very wrong.

I bet all 5 and generally don't have a checkback range in this spot. I might consider checking some stuff against experts or truly awful players but realistically most opponents peel flop/fold turn too much and under-bluff river so I'd rather double barrel everything versus most people. In a vacuum I could be convinced that carving up my range on the turn is better but I think the perception that I will double-barrel everything elicits more folds from people bc they know they won't get free/cheap cards. (This is primarily a NL concept but in my experience it transfers pretty well to LHE too.)

for this to work against a thinking player, you'll have to deal with turn xr of 30-45%. Also, you have to start bet/calling down with hands as weak as KT/A6.

Here's the EV breakdown of what you're suggesting vs it's weakness:

-- IP Cbetting Flop
70% (GTO) = 3.68 EV after bet flop
100% (Easy) = 3.46 EV after bet flop
6% EV loss < not a huge loss here, but significant

-- OOP
1.89 EV x turn (vs gto)
3.14 EV x turn (delaying value)
EV gain from OOP adjusting to exploit your turn cbet = +66% EV gain in their turn X
note: we give up significant EV from not XR the flop often, but this drastic shift on the turn outweighs it. Not the real point here.

-- IP Cbetting Turn
70% (GTO) = 6.64 EV after bet turn
100% (Easy) = 4.85 EV after bet turn (vs delays)
27% EV loss

Really just wanted to highlight the massive flaw in this approach vs anyone who will delay value to the turn. Also trying to learn/develop check back ranges on the fly vs "dangerous" guys who will do this is not wise at game speed.


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The argument for bet/bet/check vs passive players is inherently flawed.
Since those playertypes don't xr many of their stronger holdings on the flop, even when they peel wide we should be checking back the turn very often due to the strength of their xc range's equity.
(e.g. if we pound it we aren't making money...)

i like money as much as I hate bet100/bet100/check

The problem is that many hands in your range want free cards.

Should any of these hands be checked back on the flop?

Yes

Are you checking back all?

I bet AJ for sure.

A3 feels like a perfect check back.

Is 67 a bet and possible barrel? Maybe T8 as well?

KT seems like a not bad hand to check back and give up.

Bet into resistance.

The high cards may hold up, and showing down with anything other than an A ruins your image, giving more future action.

No