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Micro-Small Stakes Limit Discussions about micro-small stakes Texas Hold'em (all stakes up to around 15/30)

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Old 03-17-2017, 12:00 PM   #1
Spades47
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Bankroll question

I'm bored with nothing to do and there's a casino that has an hours promotion where the top hour player receives $1,000 (which is what I'd be shooting for, although other hour earners receive cash as well)

They have a 2/4 limit game there that I should be able to get enough hours in to win it.

So my question is, would a $650 roll be enough to give this hour challenge a shot? (I'm thinking I'd need about 60-80 hours to win it)

The $650 is a little more than half the recommended bankroll for the game so I'm thinking I should be ok?

Very much appreciate it.


PS-I'm an experienced player (10 years) Confident, I would be best player at this 2/4 game.
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Old 03-17-2017, 12:53 PM   #2
TheDarkKnight
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Re: Bankroll question

How long is the time period for the promo? Monthly? 60-80 hours doesn't sound like it would get it done to me. Probably 100+, but you should have a better idea than I would how many hours people are knocking out to win this thing. There are freaks of nature that play 200+ hours a month in my main casino and I think most places should have someone that puts in around 130-170 a month.

I think a number of people here would tell you that 2/4 is unbeatable, so no bankroll is big enough. I don't know what the rake structure is, but if they are paying out $1000+ a month to the top hours earners, they are probably taking extra just to cover that promo. I think if you can perform around break even and you can set aside $1500 to play poker with, you should be okay for a while in the game.

I had five losing months of 8/16 from 2015-2016 and they were for -24.5 BB, -27 BB, -50 BB, -168 BB, and -150 BB. The latter two are 30 day downswings that are big enough to basically wipe out what you are planning to start with and I've been a 1.4 BB/HR winner in the game over that time span, so starting with 162.5 big bets doesn't seem all that safe to me. It wouldn't be that difficult or out of the ordinary to lose it all. Double the number of bets in your current plan and you are probably okay...

...if you play well enough to approach break even.
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Old 03-17-2017, 01:45 PM   #3
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Re: Bankroll question

No, it's not enough. If your just bored and don't mind a fairly hi probability of having a $700 downer then hrs fine


Also my recommended "bankroll" (you don't have bankrolls at this limit unless grinding online) would be $3000-4000 so I think you may be confusing a recomended bankroll with what you should brijg to the casino to play for a day
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Old 03-17-2017, 02:10 PM   #4
Spades47
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Re: Bankroll question

Thanks alot for the detailed reply... appreciate the numbers you gave on your downswings especially as that makes me think I should feel safe with my roll since the promo is actually weekly.

I'm really not thinking about profiting from the game to much... am just hoping to grind it for maybe 2-4 weeks and have a roll for nl or if I enjoy it a bigger limit game.

I'm currently saving to build up a roll, but like I said, I'm bored and am thinking this might be an alright shot to take.

It is cross-country though and I rather save the money if the $650 wouldn't let me comfortably grind the 70 or so hours, it'd probably take to win the promo.

Would you take the shot if you knew you were going to win the promo each week?

Again, I really appreciate it and am sorry I didn't state that it was a weekly promo in my op.
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Old 03-17-2017, 02:20 PM   #5
Spades47
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Re: Bankroll question

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Originally Posted by Jon_locke View Post
No, it's not enough. If your just bored and don't mind a fairly hi probability of having a $700 downer then hrs fine


Also my recommended "bankroll" (you don't have bankrolls at this limit unless grinding online) would be $3000-4000 so I think you may be confusing a recomended bankroll with what you should brijg to the casino to play for a day

Thanks.. I don't play limit and didn't think it'd be worth the shot after seeing the promo, but I thought I remembered that 300 bb's was standard for a roll at limit and after looking it up that's what it did say.

So, $650 is a little more than half the suggested roll which makes me feel comfortable somewhat since I'd only be looking to survive the 70 or so hours it'd take to win the promo.

Even if I lost the $650, I'd still have the $1,000 (assuming I won that weeks promo)to grind the next weeks one.. but again, I don't really know what to do. I think it's worth taking the shot. Still not sure though.

If you or any other experienced limit players could weight in. I'd be very thankful.

Last edited by Spades47; 03-17-2017 at 02:31 PM.
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Old 03-17-2017, 03:14 PM   #6
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Re: Bankroll question

It basically depends on win rate. If you are breakeven or worse, 160BB has a decent shot of not being enough in 80 hours (2400 hands). If you beat the game for 1BB/HR, you have the expectation of another 80BB. It reduces your chances of going broke before you run out of time. Even a winning player has a decent shot of running bad enough to go through 160BB. Even as a losing player, you have far less than 100% chance of going broke in this point in time.

IIRC, typical BRM assumes a 1.5% risk of ruin, playing with a 1BB/HR edge and about 12BB/HR of standard deviation to wind up with a 300BB roll. 300 isn't a magic number, it just results from making some assumptions and doing some infinite series math. This is all from the viewpoint of playing forever, not taking out money, and never adding more to your playing roll.

Haven't done the math, but let's say you have a 30% chance of going broke playing on this short roll. How much does that matter to you? What's the time worth to you? In those answers, you'll find the correct thing to do.
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Old 03-17-2017, 03:57 PM   #7
Spades47
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Re: Bankroll question

Thanks for the info Doug.

I haven't played much limit but I am confident I'd be one of the top if not best player at these stakes... but would much rather assume I'm a break even player to better figure out if the shot is worth it or not.

So assuming that, what would you (or anybody else say) the odds are that I lose the $650, but complete the 80 hours or so for the $1,000 promo? I think getting some idea of those odds would help me alot in making my decision.

Again, I truly appreciate it.
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Old 03-17-2017, 04:18 PM   #8
suchj0sh
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Re: Bankroll question

I would expect some very nitty play in the room with this promo going on. Rake has to be a factor in this too, no?
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Old 03-17-2017, 04:53 PM   #9
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Re: Bankroll question

I would not expect nitty play in any 2/4 game, regardless of promos.
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Old 03-17-2017, 06:25 PM   #10
Jon_locke
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Re: Bankroll question

Honest queStion: if you don't play limit why do you think you will likely be one of gtbr best players in a limit game?

Without knowing more details, given your own described lack
If experience and the massive rake at 2-4 it's very unlikely you will be able to break even in the game, I'd guess losing $5 hour or so is fairly realistic.

Here is the other issue: you are on pace to win the weekly challenge but have 2 days left and are currently stuck $650, what happens?

Lastly, there is probably 0 chance 70 hours wins the promo; there are plenty of weeks I play 70 hours with no promo
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Old 03-17-2017, 06:40 PM   #11
Spades47
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Re: Bankroll question

Who knows for sure man...

I called the casino and they said a 120 hours won it last week so that's pretty much out of the question but I should be able to qualify for $200 with about 50 hours. I'm still kind of considering it...

New question- How often are 150 bb downswings experienced over the course of a year for a 1bb/hour player?

Again, I appreciate it very much.
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Old 03-17-2017, 06:53 PM   #12
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Re: Bankroll question

If you're talking about the promo at Orleans in Las Vegas, I know there are people who will play 100 hours a week.
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:09 PM   #13
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Re: Bankroll question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spades47 View Post
New question- How often are 150 bb downswings experienced over the course of a year for a 1bb/hour player?
I don't know anything about the actual frequencies, but I just gave you an example where I definitely had two of them in a 24 month period... but in actuality, both of those months were part of a bigger downswing where I sandwiched a couple of mediocre/bad months in between for a total downswing more in the -375 BB range -- that's a pretty bad streak, but overall, I would probably guess that I have run better than average as far as luck is concerned.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob View Post
I would not expect nitty play in any 2/4 game, regardless of promos.
This might be true, in general, but it's certainly not gospel. When I used to floor, I'd often prop the 3/6 games and it was basically all preflop limping and then checking every hand down. You might think they are trying to keep the game going just like I was, but I also used to prefer warming up at 3/6 to sitting around waiting for 8/16, but they play the same way in a full game. I'm not saying it's always like that, but it's been my experience way too many times for me to stomach sitting in the game. I'd rather do anything else. Hard pass. It wouldn't surprise me if some 2/4 games are exactly like that.
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:31 PM   #14
Spades47
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Re: Bankroll question

Yeah, 125 hours won it last week.

I may still attempt it though.

But yeah, like I mentioned in the post above for a 1bb/hour winner is 150 bb swings that common that I should be worried about not completing 120 hours?

Recommended bankroll in nl is about $4k for 1/2, so is it essentially asking the same thing as if I should feel comfortable with a $2,000 roll over same amount of hours? Is it even a good comparison?

Appreciate it
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:36 PM   #15
Spades47
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Re: Bankroll question

DK, I'm thankful you gave me those numbers but I'm really trying to see if I could make those 150bb's last a 120 hours. Or rather how comfortable I should be.

Do you know about how many hours you played on avg. each month?
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:39 PM   #16
Jon_locke
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Re: Bankroll question

It's hard to answer any questions without knowing your winrates. I think it's problematic to say that you never play limit and assume a 1Bb/hour winrate. Like I said without knowing more I would predict $0- (-)$5 as the expectation for somebody that is decent at poker. It not camisole with limit Holdem.

150 BB downsigns sre very common for good players and are far more common for not great players obviously. It's very possible to lose $600 in 2-3 days at 2-4 playing well, let alone tilting or not playing your best


1-2 No is generally a much better game becusse you can beat he the rake. It as I've said you can't comment past that because nobody but you knows what you whb
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:39 PM   #17
Spades47
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Re: Bankroll question

I mean I really want to go and would feel very comfortable in the game if I had to complete this promo with a proper bankroll... I just don't know whether it's worth the shot. Just trying to get a better idea.
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:42 PM   #18
Jon_locke
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Re: Bankroll question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spades47 View Post
DK, I'm thankful you gave me those numbers but I'm really trying to see if I could make those 150bb's last a 120 hours. Or rather how comfortable I should be.

Do you know about how many hours you played on avg. each month?
If you win 1 BB/hour you are like 15% to have a 300 BB downswing or something (standard deviation of 14). Now change that winrate to 0 and 300 Bb to 150 and your ROR is going to be very large
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:44 PM   #19
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Re: Bankroll question

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Originally Posted by Spades47 View Post
I mean I really want to go and would feel very comfortable in the game if I had to complete this promo with a proper bankroll... I just don't know whether it's worth the shot. Just trying to get a better idea.
Like others have said, it depends what the money means to you. If you want to have fun, and don't mind losing it all then play.

If losing it all will make you sick, then don't play. Even if you win the promo and manage it break even you are making less than minimum wage so it's not a can't miss opportunity or anything
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Old 03-17-2017, 08:48 PM   #20
Spades47
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Re: Bankroll question

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Originally Posted by Jon_locke View Post
If you win 1 BB/hour you are like 15% to have a 300 BB downswing or something (standard deviation of 14). Now change that winrate to 0 and 300 Bb to 150 and your ROR is going to be very large


Really? Is that over 120 hours?
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:52 PM   #21
TheDarkKnight
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Re: Bankroll question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spades47 View Post
DK, I'm thankful you gave me those numbers but I'm really trying to see if I could make those 150bb's last a 120 hours. Or rather how comfortable I should be.

Do you know about how many hours you played on avg. each month?
There's no definitive answer, man. I'm just giving you examples of variance that I've experience myself. I cannot say with any certainty that a $650 bankroll will last 120 hours, or even that is "likely" to last that long. It certainly could. As others have said, there's no real basis to think you are a winning player other than that you have experience (in other variants) and confidence. We really have no idea how well you play 2/4 LHE, but I think most of us would assume you would lose in the game in the long run, so that's why everyone is suggesting a bigger starting bankroll.

As Doug said, If you are taking a shot at the promo and don't mind losing $650, then go for it. You don't need a bankroll.

Edit: I typically play 160 or so hours of poker each month, but for those two particular bad months of 8/16 my sample sizes are actually pretty small: 44 hours and 80 hours in the months I lost 150+ big bets. Note: my decrease in hours those months isn't because I was running bad it's because I was traveling to play tournament series.

Last edited by TheDarkKnight; 03-17-2017 at 10:07 PM.
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:53 PM   #22
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Re: Bankroll question

A 1BB/hr winner faces about a 1.5% RoR playing on a 300BB roll. That's $4 big bets. You're planning on using about a half roll. Could be 15% to 30% risk of ruin. Callypgian or somebody might be willing to do the real math. The unknown is really win rate.
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:54 PM   #23
Spades47
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Re: Bankroll question

Just found a variance calculator.

3bb/100 winrate

25bb/100 SD (not to sure about this)

3600 hands (30hourx120hours)

My risk of ruin comes out to about 10% with 150bb's. Anybody see anything wrong with the numbers I used?

Thanks.
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Old 03-17-2017, 09:57 PM   #24
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Re: Bankroll question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spades47 View Post
I'm thinking I'd need about 60-80 hours to win it

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spades47 View Post
I called the casino and they said a 120 hours won it last week
It should be a bad sign that you didn't know the latter before posting the former.
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Old 03-17-2017, 10:04 PM   #25
Spades47
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Re: Bankroll question

^^^ Thank you Doug.. Didnt see your post. Do the numbers I used look right to you?
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