8/16, very loose table.

Villain is UTG and limps almost any two, can raise preflop with good holdings but I've seen her limp or just complete in the blinds with AA. She will peel almost any flop then take stabs heads up or multiway on late streets if everyone shows weakness. Because of this I bluff caught her in a few hands (like I had pocket dueces and Ahi). However, seeing this another player started calling down villain when villain raised or donked into a strong multiway field and villain always had the goods there (this hilariously confused the calling player, making faces and eyerolling). I don't think I'd seen villain donk any flop draws and I usually make big notes of that.

Pre-flop:
Villain limps UTG
Mega calling station limps MP
Hero raises red KK
BB completes and limpers call

Flop: 8.5 bets
246
Villain donks
MP calls
Hero raises
BB power folds
Villain and MP call

Turn: 7.5 big bets
A
Villain sees the turn, looks down at chips right away, fumbles a stack of them, has to pick up a couple strays that fell, and then donks again.
MP makes a rare turn fold.
Does hero fold?

This felt straight out of Caro's book of tells. If that A hit her I have only two outs not counting the times this is fun played AA.

If these are all reads from today then I call turn and think about folding club/4liner rivers. It would be surprisingly savvy for her to bluff this card but bad players make "good" plays for bad and/or random reasons. If you've built some history with her over a few sessions and she's not stuck then you might think "i'll fold QQ" and just show down innocuous rivers. Folding this hand isn't the secret to beating 8/16, imo.

Reads are from two sessions, maybe 11 hours total. She had a lot of chips in front of her for this hand, but I'm sure she bought at least one rack a few hours before. It seems like she plays so much at this room that she might as well be part of the furniture.

Also, crunching the EV the breakeven for this I need to be ahead a bit more than 20% of the time.

Eh, you are getting 4.75 to 1 to call down. You need a stronger read to fold.

I'd call

Nobody tries to bluff 3 people out of a pot in 8/16. If they don't have an ace they'll be afraid someone else has one. Easy fold.

I can understand folding here in many situations. However, it's worth noting that *if* (and that's a pretty big if) anyone is paying attention, your play is super weak and you open to up having people take shots at you. I don't know if that happens in 8/16 passive games where you're playing them, but it's worth being aware of. You have to call down at least some of the times you don't have an ace here.

FWIW, I'd probably call down in this situation because of this part of your read:

I don't see any reason why she couldn't have something like 77 here. She has the potential to bluff, and this is a bluffing card. Maybe you've never seen her bluff a flush draw (though I would find that to be a strange pattern -- if someone will bluff no pair, it would be strange if they never semibluffed a flush draw), but that doesn't mean she can't. Maybe K3 clubs might think of taking a stab when the ace falls.

I mean, I have definitely played with people at 8/16 here in California that are capable of bluffing in this spot. Not saying that applies to this game or your game, but there is some percentage of the time that you can call the turn and the river will go check/check, or the river comes a blank and you beat 65/54/43/clubs that they decided to turn into a bluff.

Ace is a bad card for you.

I read the op as saying this player has been caught doing exactly that already. Also, his flop line is incongruous with his turn line unless he has exactly aces up.

I know my description was long winded and probably unclear. I've caught player taking stabs at pots when it's been checked around, but seen her have the goods when raising or donking after a lot of action.

I agree that even if I fold this it should be infrequent. Without strong I call down all day, so it was a matter of how to weigh the read. Since I needed to be good 20% of the time are my reads + the tell enough to say I'm dead 80%+ of the time?

pick the worst hand you call according to the weight of the read and not the binary "imma call or fold with this hand." you need more weight to fold kings than you do tens or nines, which you probably still have in your range.

What's your hand range after you've raised the flop? Do you raise 66 or lower preflop? If not, you've got no sets in your range except if you have AA hit it on the turn. You basically never have two pair here (A6 suited if you get really aggro preflop?)

Maybe you've got a few suited aces in clubs that hit, but aren't you raising those on the turn? So then what do you ever call with here?

You might want to look at your whole range after you've raised the flop and see just how high up KK is in that range.