I've noticed that many here adopt the "B/F" line when making thin value bets. Seems to me that this opens you up to exploitation. If I can Identify those spots where you're making thin value bets, given the propensity to adopt "B/F", wouldn't it be correct to raise my entire range? Also, you're creating a situation where you may make an extra big bet..or...you may lose whole pot! Am I way off base here?

1.) sure, but very few opponents exploit the b/f tendencies of good tags by raising rivers light; and

2.) I don’t think people b/f as much as they say. See #1

+1. This is one of the ways that low limit games are soft. That old man across the table is never raising as a bluff.

Any exploitative strategy is open to be counter-exploited. That doesn't make it wrong.

Can you recall a time when you've seen and successfully exploited someone's excessive bet/folds? Hard, huh.

I doubt even winning players do a lot of this in live games. There'll be what, at most two players at a table who make such thin bets, and are able to fold them. You could easily go hours before the opportunity arose, and just as easily no longer be sufficiently attentive. Same for the villains.

So keep b/f_ing as appropriate, until the rare event that someone starts exploiting you.

I see it, not alll the time, but it happens.

yea yea...I know ...i need to learn how to post correctly lol.

True, and it's at that point that you adjust in kind. But if we sit down at a table together and we don't know each other and i see that you can make that type of fold...I'm gonna try you if the situation comes up. And now you run the risk once again of losing the whole pot by trying to win one extra big bet? Seems like the times you get that xtra bet would be nullified by those times when you're pushed off best hand by someone.

Yep, in fact I posted a thread about bluffing in 4/8 and I advocate doing just that...raising light even air on river when you think 1. they are making a thin value bet..and 2. they are capable of folding to a raise.

And yes you're correct, there aren't many players at table you can pull this line on...but there are usually a couple, like you said. And yes the opportunity to make this play will only come around once or twice in a session..if at all. But when it does come around shouldn't you be raising you're entire range in that spot? I'm happy if I can steal a pot in a session lol...

Oh and I wasn't worried about being exploited..was planning on exploiting some of you! LMAO!!!

There are a few players in my 8-16 who would raise the river HU v. me if I bet-folded regularly. I do make that play but it's not a default line for me.

Sure. I don't think anyone claimed that it never happens.

That's fine.

Think about the confluence of events required for me to *actually* be concerned about this, and then tell me whether it's worth worrying about.

Let's say that I sit down at your table and you've never seen me before.

1) How many hands do you think will have to go by before there's an opportunity for me to find a thin river value bet?
2) What percent of times do you think my thin value bet gets raised by my opponent?
3) How long do you think it will take for the two of us to be in a heads up river spot where I'm pulling a thin river value bet against you?
4) With what frequency do you meet your criteria and decide to raise my thin value bet?

Why should I be concerned?

Will answer in seq:
1. cmon man you should understand enough to know that that question can't be answered. You might have multiple instances within first hour you play..or you might go for multiple sessions and never have it come up.

2. Most accurate answer..it depends! If you're sitting at my table...quite frequently LMAO! honestly, depends on people ur playing against and their skill.

3. UMMM..depends? LMAO...reread answer to question #1

4. reread answer to question #1

Your point seems to be..it doesn't happen enough to matter? I disagree.

The "confluence" lmao!!!!! Losing a whole pot because you were trying to win an xtra bet, don't know about you, but that would worry me. Those rivers converge far more than I think you're willing to admit.

You're welcome to disagree.

I've laid out the precise sequence of conditions that you've stated that would have to happen in order for you to actually take advantage of me if I bet/fold thin value bets on the river. My analysis strongly points to the fact that you will be extremely unlikely to actually obtain the information in a reasonable amount of time AND be able to apply that information. Basically, we would have to be regulars together and play dozens of hours together before you even have a realistic shot at it.

But by then, your propensity towards aggression would have been made far more obvious than my propensity to bet/fold in thin value situations. And so my adjustment is far easier to make than yours.

Therefore, I don't think I have any real reason to be concerned about you trying to counter-exploit this singular situation against me.

I would never bet fold anything 5+ handed. I bet fold a lot more heads up.

Yup.

Firstly, it's okay to bet/fold *sometimes* in a game theoretical sense. Many people do it too much, mostly as a symptom of playing players who never show up with a bluff in those spots.

But if the pot is 8 after your bet and a dude raises, he's risking 2 bets to win 8. So as long as your not folding more than 20% of the time, he won't make automatic $ with his bluffs anyway. So it's okay to throw a few hands away.

In general though DM, you're right. Bet/folds are playing with fire (as my KK hand from awhile ago shows). It's usually a good idea to not be a hero in FL facing single bet decisions.

But Aaron W is also right here. If you're playing a truly good player, then they won't be making the same decisions against different opponents. Like I know a guy who has a history of checking behind hands like A6 on AK4-6-9 on the river for...reasons unknown. And he's never shown down a bluff in years of play. So yeah, when he raises the river, hero folding A4 could be valid, as absurd as it looks to us. But just because a guy is wiling to make a huge fold to a guy like that, doesn't mean he's willing to do the same to an unknown entity. And good players also have a good grasp of frequencies, so they can tell when their opponent's are out of whack. Given how rare turn and river raises are, it'll catch the attention of your potential bluff targets fast.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! you can't be serious????? WHAT ANALYSIS? ....can't believe i have to type this but ok. Once again...we could sit down at a table together and in first orbit I could have info I need to target you. Next orbit situation could come up once, twice..who knows...who knows what the cards will bring? Apparently you do?

[QUOTE=Aaron W.;53733469]You're welcome to disagre


But by then, your propensity towards aggression would have been made far more obvious than my propensity to bet/fold in thin value situations. And so my adjustment is far easier to make than yours.


How in the H...! lol is that? First time I raise you you don't know what I have! Second time you might start to get suspicious. HOWEVER, you've already clearly shown your bluffable. And it doesn't have to be a situation where you actually were bluffed, just showing you can make a good fold is enough. Now we get in that same situation again..might be two days later ..might be two months...I'm folding in that spot or waiting to raise my big hands on river..against you lol..

"It might be the first two hands, so LOL you can't know anything!!"

Clearly, you're well versed in statistics and the idea of expected values, and your position is unassailable.

When did I say it might be the first two hands??? I said first orbit..first 9 hands. But, and this is how stupid your statement is, lets say it is first two hands...first hand you snap fold to a raise in a certain spot...next hand we're in same spot. And obviously, changes of that happening are rare...buuuut possible. Yet your whole premise revolves around the idea that it doesn't happen enough to worry about...NOT...that its not correct or an issue..just that it doesn't happen enough to matter, lol. Finally, you think I'm the only one that's gonna try you in these spots????????? so while the situation might never come up against me..it surely will against others...Also..If I had never heard of stats and thought EV was a music group, still wouldn't make your statements any less laughable!

Your argument is clearly without flaw. You obviously understand everything there is to understand about the situation.

you'll see many calls because "your raise has no sense"

Unfortunately at live poker, claiming a raise "makes no sense" is often giving opponents way too much credit.

But unless OP is some 70 year old middle class white dude retiree in a baseball cap, people aren't gonna fold to his spaz raises. Even if people show up With good hands way more than they should in certain spots.