2 limpers
Hero in HJ w AKc raises
BTN folds
Blinds and limpers call

(10SB)
Flop: 8c 2h 3h

Hero bets; all call
(7.5 BB)
Turn Ad

BB bets (she has been passive PF and aggro post)
Hero raises
Folds to BB who 3 bets
Hero calls

(13.5 BB)
River: 10c

BB bets
Hero calls

Should Hero have:
Re-raised (4 bet) on turn?
Folded to the turn 3 bet?
Raised river?
Folded river?




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I check flop. As played I maybe just call turn. Did the two limpers fold the turn?

I would not bet this flop.

As played I would not raise the turn, just call down.

call down, you have outs probably

I don't mind the flop bet if there's not much chance of getting check-raised. It can be construed as a value bet and you don't mind so much if a hand like QT either calls (because then you're getting value out of a worse hand) or folds (because QT has odds to chase you and has given up that equity).

Failing to raise the turn is pretty bad. That feels results-oriented to me. There is absolutely no reason to believe that the turn bet on its own is a hand stronger than TPTK. There are plenty of worse aces that bet and call down. There are also flush draws to extract value from and maybe even a random 4x or 5x hand that you can charge.

How can advice be results oriented when we don't know the results?

If I had checked behind on flop I would be more likely to raise this turn, but betting into you here seems very strong. Donker could just have a weaker ace, but I think he's more likely to have two pair.

My guess is that if villain had called the turn raise and checked the river, it's likely that you would have though the turn raise was good. The "result" isn't the hand at showdown, but the result of the action.

You are welcome to think that. I think a hand like A9s donks the turn to avoid having KK-TT check through. There are more ace hands that aren't two pair than ace hands that are two pair. Ax hearts may play this way as well. Top pair plus nut flush draw!

Nah, I still would have said the raise was too aggressive. And I still wouldn't be at all surprised to see villain show up with aces up after calling turn raise and check-calling river. I don't think raising here is awful, just not great.

I don't have a ton of experience in this spot because I would have checked behind on the flop; I think betting there should be the most controversial play here, and I think it was a big mistake. Want to reiterate that because hero seemed to think the bet was self-evident.

easy call, you still have so many outs.

To be clear here: In the event that you held KK and someone bets the turn at you, your inclination is to think that he quite likely has two pair or better? Because I don't think you would check behind with KK. And if you're holding AK, you're actually blocking the two pair hands that you're afraid of whereas with KK you've got none of the aces blocked.

I'm doubtful that you're being consistent in your thinking.

lol @ raising being too aggressive. We have top top against 4-8 players who can't hand read at all.

I don't know how it can fold around to BB without note of the limpers. Did they call? If they did, that makes raising even more attractive.

I gotta disagree. Your outs aren't entirely live, particularily the ace, as the ace is the most frequent hand played, so an ace comes, and it'll bring two-pair. The king is not clean for the same reasons, but more small pairs w/ an ace than a king. So, betting six (dirty) outs w/ bdfd for value is optimistic. I also disagree that you can discern no chances of being check-raised, even in a $4/$8 game. There is always a chance of a check-raise with this many opponents. In particular the deuce and trey help the blinds who are most apt to check-raise w/ relative position. The nine helps the limpers ranges a lot and they are apt to check-call with K9 for example, and we're not thrilled about any calls, even if they all call. The flop bet is plain spew. This flop doesn't represent our range. We have ace high, and the blinds may check-raise exploitatively if we're betting here with AK and spew. Oddly I'd rather c-bet with QJ bdfd than AK bdfd, but both are bad.

Turn seems fine. You're ahead of a lot of lead-bets here (A4,A5,AT-AQ, and tie AK), and behind the two-pairs and sneaky sets. Overall you're ahead and I suspect you're ahead greater than 2-to-1, which is about the value you need to raise (because if you're re-raised, you're drawing thin, and you're risking two bets to win one). So, it's a good raise, I think, but not tons of value. If your opponent is peeling the ace-high bdfd then there's even more value raising since there are some A6-A8 in there as well. A9 is discounted a little since no check-raise, but passive player it's still possible. Calling the turn three-bet is necessary as you have in the neighborhood of 6 outs (three kings, and a favorable board pair).

I'd call the river if passive pre-flop, and aggro post-flop means potentially AK here. Otherwise, I'd fold. I think AK is a real possibility at second glance of OP. It's kind've a math problem. 7.5 BB going into the turn, 12.5 when you decide to call the 3-bet. 14.5 when you face a bet on the river. 6 AK possibilities, and 12 two-pair possibilities. And say, 4 set possibilities. So 27% of the time you chop the pot, about 13.5% equity. Clear call.

I'm not talking about equity when drawing. I'm talking about A-high being good on this board. There are lots of junk hands out there that completely missed and you can get value from them.

That is, if we just turned all the hands over right now, I would expect A-high to be best something like 30% of the time which is more than enough 5-handed. I could be wrong. This is a pretty bricked out board texture (832) and there's value to be had from flush draws and overcards that mitigates the times when a player has Q8o or something like that. And folding out hands is also good. In other words, good things can happen when I bet, and the bad things (getting check-raised) aren't that bad. If the first player check-raises and it's heads up, I'm still heads up for a 6-7 BB pot with some reasonably good overcard outs.

Not much chance != no chance. You get check-raised here maybe... 10% of the time? That's at least my gut reflex, and that's low enough that I'm not worried about it.

It's possible to discount AK a little, weigh it down to like 75%, but given description of OP, discounting it entirely would be a mistake. So, 2 aces, 3 kings * .75, that's still 3/8 times you chop the pot.

Also, I meant A8 instead of A9, thought the flop was 9 high.

I think if you're betting here, and show this much aggression, you are getting check-raised more often than you think. Against a field of players, I really do not think you're good 30% of the time, and when you are behind, you are often way behind. I also don't think folding hands out is good here even, because you're going to have to hit to win against a field. It would be great if you could get a pair of treys with an ace to mistakenly fold, but hardly ever going to happen. No matter what the turn is, it's a scare card unless it's an ace or king.

And, sorry I re-read and see you said, "not much chance". I just don't think it's negligible.

Perhaps board pairs are "decent" for you. Perhaps not though.

This doesn't make sense to me. You're not chopping the pot 37.5% of the time.

6 ways for each rank to make two pair, aces and eights, treys, deuces = 18
4 sets (because 3 * 3 = 9, and it's strange to play a straight like this, not unheard-of though, debatable)
4.5 AK (2 aces * 3 kings * .75)

One sec

4.5 / 14.5 chops = ~31%, so ~15.5% equity. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Maybe getting some folds on the flop are good, like J7, and random air that misses and can make a pair and would fold for one small bet. I suppose on the flop bet it matters a lot how often you stand to be good, and what your equity is if you bet and are called by one or more player.

There are 18 + 4 + 4.5 = 26.5 hands in his range. Of these hands, 4.5 are chops. So you're chopping 4.5/26.5 = 17% of the time. When chopping your equity is 50% of the pot. So your total equity from chops as a percent against this hand range is 50% * 17% = 8.5%. So your chopping equity is 14.5 * 8.5% ~ 1.23 BB.

I think you're being excessive pessimistic about your opponent's hand range. I would again look at the range if you held KK. If you hold KK, do you really think the ace kills you because it means your opponent has aces up? Or do you think it means that your opponent simply has a pair of aces?

Yes. River was heads up


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The limpers' folding was implied by the change from 7.5 BB pot before the turn to 13.5 BB after the turn, but I should have been more clear. The limpers folded after the BB bet and before Hero raised on the turn.


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True. On a board as dry as this was with likely only a flush draw, I viewed betting AK as self evident. I wanted to charge flush draws and get others with air to fold (so I could buy those outs). I am very open to learning from criticism, but in this case, I am surprised that the flop bet is controversial.



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How valuable is cbetting here b/c we are not likely to get c/r on this texture on the flop (debatable vs this # of opponents) and we get a good price to potentially see the river with our b/d wheel, fd, and over cards?

It's not possible to "calculate" the value of betting. There are far too many assumptions and possibilities that are going into this. You have to worry about...

1) How often are you ahead?
2) If you're ahead, how many calls/folds do you expect?
3) If you're behind, how often are your outs live? And do your reverse implied odds look like if your outs aren't live?
4) What is the probability of someone donking the turn?
5) What about check-raises? (Yes, I know you assumed those away, but they actually carry a somewhat significant weight because they signal that you're behind *AND* you'll be putting in two small bets.)

Because of all of these factors, we can end up with very divert conclusions about whether to bet in this spot. I think it's close because I think (1) is large enough and (4)/(5) are both small enough to make the value of seeing calls or folds worth it.

Others disagree.

Agree, we could be ahead. Again, texture.

I would add some emphasis on #2. At least when I was playing the hand, I did. If AK is ahead on the flop a reasonably large portion, as I believed, AK is still subject to many, many re-draws. So every hand that folds to the c-bet and does not include an A or K is buying 6 outs with the c-bet. On a board with this texture, I expected that at least 1 and probably 2 villains fold. And any villain hanging around with an A or K in their hand (without a paired kicker) doesn't make me too sad.

Also, in real time, my read was that the odds of being checked raise were more than zero but not a lot more. As for dunking on the turn, I expect almost ay two pair would donk but nothing less than that. So on this Board, dunking is not likely.

The c-bet seemed self evident. Nevertheless, this discussion is helpful. Next time, I will have a deeper understanding of what I am doing, and maybe play a similar hand better because of it.