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Old 09-02-2017, 11:10 PM   #1
BoonClick
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AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

8/16 10 handed, table had been tight for the past two hours but apparently people were getting bored because two players that I'd considered solid TAGs open raised with 57o and straddled respectively and the game blew open from there. The last two orbits saw three hands capped PF 4 or 5-way. So I figure table was highly loose aggressive at the time but not sure.

V1 is a solid player that seemed to be tilting (by playing looser)
V2 is only two orbits in but seems loose, saw him cold call raises with A7o and A5o.

Hero has AK three from button
EP raises, V1 3bets, Hero calls (probably should have capped), V2 calls from CO, SB caps, BB folds the rest call

Flop (21 sb): 677
SB bets, called around to V2 who raises, everyone calls

Turn (15.5 bb): 3
Checked to V2 who bets, everyone calls except for EP

River (19.5 bb): K
V1 bets, hero calls, V2 raises, SB folds V1 and hero both call

This hand was frustrating because I was getting strung along for a lot of bets with seemingly no way to get out or take the initiative. On the flop and turn I was drawing to 6 outs that may not be good, but the overlay was huge. On the river when V1 leads out I'm almost certain we have the same hand (he would have raised flop w/ AA/KK). When V2 raises, even for just half the pot it seemed large enough to see it out, I may be wrong.

Thoughts welcome, thanks
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Old 09-03-2017, 12:14 AM   #2
Montrealcorp
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

Cap pf
Rest seem fine
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Old 09-03-2017, 10:56 AM   #3
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

I'd cap it preflop without really considering any other option.

Quote:
8/16 10 handed, table had been tight for the past two hours but apparently people were getting bored because two players that I'd considered solid TAGs open raised with 57o and straddled respectively and the game blew open from there.
Huh? That's impossible. Everyone knows that 8/16 players don't raise without 88+, AK.
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Old 09-03-2017, 12:17 PM   #4
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

I think I usually just fold on the turn here, but I consider it close.

And cap preflop, as everyone says. In addition to your equity advantage, there is a chance not doing so cost you the pot in this hand.

Last edited by chillrob; 09-03-2017 at 12:27 PM.
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Old 09-03-2017, 02:01 PM   #5
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

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Originally Posted by chillrob View Post
I think I usually just fold on the turn here, but I consider it close.

And cap preflop, as everyone says. In addition to your equity advantage, there is a chance not doing so cost you the pot in this hand.
Regarding capping preflop: at this point, anybody who will call the 3bet will call the cap. Not capping allows you to see if anyone else will, which happened here. I'm not saying "don't raise", just pointing out that flatting has its appeal. Also, with all that other raising going on, your equity may not be as much as you think. As always, it depends on your opponents.

I would feel a lot better going past the flop with a heart. I think there is no point going past the turn. Doing so means you think that everyone else only has unpaired high cards a significant amount of the time. Even then, only a non-heart A or K really gives you anything to be a little bit happy with.
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Old 09-04-2017, 06:07 AM   #6
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

I think there is a case for tight fold on the flop. slightly surprising that only 2 bets went it. We are viewing our hand as having something like 4.5 effective outs? Don't think you can play differently after that point (maybe raise/fold river?)
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Old 09-04-2017, 12:03 PM   #7
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

Wait a minute. The pot is huge. We have six outs to TPTK. There is a reasonable likelihood that V2 raised with a heart draw and c-bet the turn.

I note from the relative positions that hero overcalled V1's call of V2's river raise. Maybe V2 is a spewmonkey, but the likelihood that V2 is a spewmonkey and V1 has a hand we beat is a bit of a parlay. At the same time, it's not a good idea to fold for one more bet in huge pots.

Hero had a big starter in a big pot and got coolered. Stuff happens. (Results are not shown, but from "Can I find a fold here" in the thread title we already know what the result is.)
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Old 09-04-2017, 12:21 PM   #8
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

Hand seems fine. I'm even fine w/ not capping if you think they are going to cap it for you.
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Old 09-04-2017, 01:04 PM   #9
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

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Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
I think there is a case for tight fold on the flop. slightly surprising that only 2 bets went it. We are viewing our hand as having something like 4.5 effective outs? Don't think you can play differently after that point (maybe raise/fold river?)
This doesn't seem right. Hero was stuck calling one bet the first time around, and then one more bet when it was raised behind him. In a 20+ SB pot, the first call is pretty clear, and when the pot was even larger I still think it's a forced call.

Maybe if the call and raise were in front, it would be a place to fold the flop. Maybe.

On the river, I hate raise/fold. You want to get to showdown. If it's raised behind and 3-bet in front, folding might be an option. But raising and then folding for one more bet in a 25+ BB pot... That's not a good idea.

And cap preflop.
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Old 09-04-2017, 02:13 PM   #10
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

Appreciate the feedback all.

As it happened sb (claimed to) have folded JJ, V1 showed AK, and V2 had 77 for flopped quads. I guess it felt silly after the fact to pay off drawing dead, but my thinking was that 88-QQ and AhXh would also be playing flop and turn the same way.
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Old 09-04-2017, 02:27 PM   #11
Aaron W.
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

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Originally Posted by BoonClick View Post
As it happened sb (claimed to) have folded JJ, V1 showed AK, and V2 had 77 for flopped quads.
It's interesting to think about how this plays out if you cap preflop. Does V2 fold? Does SB lead the flop with JJ?

It sucks that you didn't get this big pot. Maybe next time.
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Old 09-04-2017, 03:58 PM   #12
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

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Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
This doesn't seem right. Hero was stuck calling one bet the first time around, and then one more bet when it was raised behind him. In a 20+ SB pot, the first call is pretty clear, and when the pot was even larger I still think it's a forced call.

Maybe if the call and raise were in front, it would be a place to fold the flop. Maybe.

On the river, I hate raise/fold. You want to get to showdown. If it's raised behind and 3-bet in front, folding might be an option. But raising and then folding for one more bet in a 25+ BB pot... That's not a good idea.

And cap preflop.
It was 2bets to hero on flop, hero was btn
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Old 09-04-2017, 04:20 PM   #13
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

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Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
It was 2bets to hero on flop, hero was btn
No.

OP: "Hero has AK three from button"
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Old 09-04-2017, 04:37 PM   #14
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

Got it, I thought hero 3! Ak from btn
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Old 09-04-2017, 05:08 PM   #15
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

Cap pre.

Also CO could probably make a lot of money by teaching the class of "RAISE YOUR DAMN QUADS".
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Old 09-07-2017, 12:49 AM   #16
C Put 6163
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

6 handed, a very coordinated an paired board on the flop, and hero is drawing to top pair or much less likely runner runner top 2 pair or set. Top pair has little chance to be best at showdown. Even at the gozillion to one odds we are getting on the flop, I fold the flop here. (and cap preflop).
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Old 09-07-2017, 10:57 AM   #17
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

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Originally Posted by C Put 6163 View Post
6 handed, a very coordinated an paired board on the flop, and hero is drawing to top pair or much less likely runner runner top 2 pair or set. Top pair has little chance to be best at showdown. Even at the gozillion to one odds we are getting on the flop, I fold the flop here. (and cap preflop).
At what point on the flop do you fold? The first time the action gets to the hero, after the SB c-bets and V1 calls? Or when the action comes round again after V2 raises? The pot is laying 23:1 in the first spot, and 27:1 in the second.

The pot is yuuuuuge. It doesn't take very much chance for top pair to hold up for it to be profitable to call.
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Old 09-08-2017, 02:06 PM   #18
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

I actually fold the river to V2's raise. V2 has AK beat 100 percent of the time.
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Old 09-11-2017, 05:44 PM   #19
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
I think there is a case for tight fold on the flop. slightly surprising that only 2 bets went it. We are viewing our hand as having something like 4.5 effective outs? Don't think you can play differently after that point (maybe raise/fold river?)
there absolutely is not. hero is getting something like 25:1
seriously, no way. if the guy behind said I'm going to raise and then the other guy said I'm going to 3-bet, then fine, fold the flop.
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Old 09-12-2017, 03:57 AM   #20
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

Quote:
Originally Posted by e_holle View Post
Regarding capping preflop: at this point, anybody who will call the 3bet will call the cap.
Quote:
Not capping allows you to see if anyone else will, which happened here.
Quote:
Also, with all that other raising going on, your equity may not be as much as you think.
Quote:
Doing so means you think that everyone else only has unpaired high cards a significant amount of the time.
You have some fundamental flaws in the way you think about limit.
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Old 09-17-2017, 09:28 PM   #21
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

If you are going to take individual statements out of my post, at least explain how they are incorrect, or where the flaw in my thinking lies.

Each statement I made is correct either in theory or in experience. Your experiences may differ, and I guess I may be extending my assertions to cover too broad a player range.
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Old 09-17-2017, 11:12 PM   #22
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

Quote:
Originally Posted by e_holle View Post
If you are going to take individual statements out of my post, at least explain how they are incorrect, or where the flaw in my thinking lies.

Each statement I made is correct either in theory or in experience. Your experiences may differ, and I guess I may be extending my assertions to cover too broad a player range.
You aren't expecting any to fold, to suggest so is ridiculous. Or we want money to go in and to suggest otherwise is ridiculous

Seeing if someone else caps is meaningless in a multiway pot where we're just playing smash and pump equity grab. Also you have no clue what their capping range is so the information is meaningless

Villains were called tilting and loose. Now is not the time to be pessimistic. You have the dominant hand a lot. Get money in

That's basically the opposite of what we think. We have very little realistic chance our hand is ahead. Smash and grab
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Old 09-20-2017, 02:01 AM   #23
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
At what point on the flop do you fold? The first time the action gets to the hero, after the SB c-bets and V1 calls? Or when the action comes round again after V2 raises? The pot is laying 23:1 in the first spot, and 27:1 in the second.

The pot is yuuuuuge. It doesn't take very much chance for top pair to hold up for it to be profitable to call.
Seems like the least likely winner hero has is the possibility of TPTK -- Aces up or Kings up. (Not least likely to make the hand, but least likely to be the best hand). The odds of a runner runner set are 179:1. If we eliminate the AKh, the odds are 1,080:1 Odds for runner runner AK are 71:1; if we eliminate the AKh the odds are 179:1. Maybe the board gets paired and hero's A splits the pot or less likely is the only A left and takes the pot. Or with the same kind of odds just described we see runner runner 6s or 7s. So.....I am guessing hero has the equivalent of 1.5-2 outs. Maybe the math makes this a close call, especially if I have underestimated the outs some, but I still fold at 23:1.
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Old 09-20-2017, 11:54 AM   #24
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

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Originally Posted by C Put 6163 View Post
Seems like the least likely winner hero has is the possibility of TPTK -- Aces up or Kings up. (Not least likely to make the hand, but least likely to be the best hand). The odds of a runner runner set are 179:1. If we eliminate the AKh, the odds are 1,080:1 Odds for runner runner AK are 71:1; if we eliminate the AKh the odds are 179:1. Maybe the board gets paired and hero's A splits the pot or less likely is the only A left and takes the pot. Or with the same kind of odds just described we see runner runner 6s or 7s. So.....I am guessing hero has the equivalent of 1.5-2 outs. Maybe the math makes this a close call, especially if I have underestimated the outs some, but I still fold at 23:1.
You might want to construct hand ranges and re-evaluate this estimate. Run it through a hand analysis program to compute the equity. Under almost any reasonable hand range, hero's equity is much larger than what your estimate here suggests. (Edit: Much larger on a relative basis. Hero's equity here is not huge in an absolute sense, but estimating 1.5-2 outs here is very pessimistic. I think it would probably end up being about twice as much.)
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Old 09-21-2017, 11:18 AM   #25
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Re: AKo in large pot - should I have folded at any point?

7 is so obvious. There's nothing to discuss. With draw he would have checked the turn most of the time (because nobody folds in big pots). River bluff is suicide.
After his river raise his hand face up.
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