Quote:
Originally Posted by non-self-weighter
Assume Hero c/c the flop and we go HU to the turn. Do you mind risking the turn being checked through?
Pot'll be 7.25BB going to the turn then.
What hands could Villain have he'd take a free card on turn with ?
QQ (6 combos) - 3 outs
JJ (3 combos) - 5 outs
That's ~3.7 outs on average. Then villain could perhaps have KdQd so let's say Villain has ~4 outs on average when behind. We could induce a FTOP mistake for the villain as he might overestimate his outs and call getting 8.25:1. OTOH, if we induce Villain to fold QQ/JJ we have gained nothing. Villain could also fire a second barrel with those HU.
We are behind:
AA (1 combo) - 4 outs
KK (3 combos) - 4 outs
99 (3 combos) - 4 outs
TT (3 combos - maybe discount as might not c-bet flop) - 4 outs
AK (6 combos) - 4 outs
AQ (8 combos) - 6 win outs + 6 split outs
We are more often behind than ahead so we do not have a value bet to make. Villain has position and can unfortunately use it here to his advantage.