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Originally Posted by Unguarded
I took notes on this video as I was going even though you are obv screwing around for fun quite a bit. My biggest piece of advice is to be very careful against these non-US players since they are usually survivors of post-apocalypse Stars. They are almost all going to be ultra-tough players who make very few mistakes. We can get away with screwing around live or in very soft games, but I feel like these non-US pros are just way too strong for experimentation and goofing around. Btw, you would have duped me if I didn't know it was you lol. I actually kind of like your limping huhu since it takes these guys out of their memorized Cepheus/solver lines. I actually hate it when good players use a decent limping strategy against me huhu. Fwiw, I think you might have actually ended up outperforming me EV-wise in this session since you took a couple lines in big pots that I would have butchered. I tried to mostly comment on this stuff as it was happening.
Thanks for taking the time to watch and give your feedback. I'm sure you're right about screwing around, I justify it by telling myself people will overcompensate against me, plus I figured it would be good for the video. But yeah, these are tough games, you generally shouldn't give anything away.
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3:00 – I would usually 3bet any suited king here. I would also fold the turn.
I like keeping quite a few aces and kings in my calling range to call down on dry boards. Turn call was pretty loose for sure but he also has a ton of air that may barrel off.
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5:00 – I can’t imagine any button limping strategy that involves 65o.
Yeah this was pretty silly.
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5:25 – I would def c/r the flop.
He acted first on the flop, this was the weird 3 handed to heads up transition hand where you think you're playing normal sb vs bb but then discover you are in position postflop.
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10:07 – I would just consider this hand an airball.. almost anything makes a better flop c/r.
bdfd+bdsd+courage! I know I don't always have the courage to check raise the hands I'm supposed to (or I miss the spots because I'm not paying attention) so I compensate by occasionally check raising hands outside that range.
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18:15 – I think you may be underestimating the extent of this spew with 85o.
It's so weird that I have this leak of open limping trash hands on the button haha. It's such a strange leak to have.
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23:24 – It looks like we have decent enough odds to call the 3bet, but these calls are actually really bad. If you run some rough pen and paper calculations, you will see that raise-folding is always higher EV than raise-calling in these situations.
Let's assume I win an additional 1.5 big bets when I hit the 6 and when I hit the 9, I call and am good 50% of the time. We'll assume I fold anything else.
I am getting 9-1 immediately on the turn plus an assumed 1.5 so the 8% of the time that I hit a 6, I will get back 10.5 big bets. 10.5 times 8% is 0.84 big bets for my cost of 1 big bet to call. I also hit a 9 about 6% of the time where we're saying I'm good 50% of the time. We can ignore the river bet since it wins even money 50% of the time. So 6% of the time, we will win 50% of the pot we are calling before the river (6% * 50% * 9) = 0.27. If we add the 0.84 expectation for hitting a 6 to the 0.27 expectation for hitting the 9, that is 1.11 big bets, better than the 1 big bet it costs to call the turn.
But maybe it's too optimistic to think a 9 would be good 50% of the time. And maybe I can't get away from a river 7, although theoretically that should only be true if I think a call with a 7 would be +EV, so that possibility should only have the chance to increase my EV on the turn call.
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25:20 – When you forget the action, you can just look at the pot size and it will usually become obvious. Like here, the pot is $88 which is obv the 90 minus the rake. So it has to have been 4bet pre, and the only logical 4bettor is the CO.
Yeah, I should have slowed down and done that math, the preflop cap got me all confused.
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25:45 – I def wouldn’t c/r the flop here. Villains who do this have AQ+ pretty much always and are never folding, so we are always at a significant equity disadvantage against a player who never folds.
I agree, this was a bad c/r, I was confused about the preflop action but don't know what preflop action would have justified a flop c/r.
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28:18 – On the left table, I feel like this is an extremely important protection raise. Getting 3bet really sucks, but we are in ezmode when it goes fold-call.
couldn't we protect our hand better by raising favorable turns?
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31:30 – It’s bottom of the range, but I feel like 3betting K9o vs a button open is almost always correct.
I agree and was surprised to see me fold this on the replay, I don't even remember doing it.
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33:45 – I think you can actually fold the river vs. the overcall here. I feel like we win less than 5% of the time, so the juicy pot odds aren’t juicy enough.
It's a slimy spot, I just felt like folding JJ might be a little too exploitable.
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34:59 – I think folding k7o on an a83 mono board is def the play. We can “overfold” weak kings since we have so much extra flush draw trash in our continuing range.
Yeah, we do have a lot of hearts but I kind of feel like the fact we have so many draws with no showdown value makes me want to call with showdown-value hands more.
True haha
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36:50 – I think you likely missed the action… SB donked the flop after taking 3 to the face pre. I would generally expect this to be 80+% air or weak pairs that will fold later on. I would likely peel the flop and raise either the turn or the river unimproved. Online rec players love to triple donk bluff paired, raggy boards.
Yes, I did miss the action. I felt like I had so many hands that could continue that folding the turn would be ok, but interesting to think about what bluff I would have there? QJ almost seems like it has too much showdown value to bluff. Diamond combos for sure but would want to add something else, I'm not going to have wheel draws when I 3 bet preflop.
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38:30 – I prefer to open K7s UTG.
I will start doing this, thanks
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39:15 – This river bluff raise is interesting. It would not have occurred to me since we are strong enough to call a donk-triple barrel. I pretty much never do this since I expect such a splashy player to call any pair, but I often wonder if this is a leak. Rec players fold enough in this spot that they pretty much have to be folding some weak pairs.
Yeah, probably too strong a hand to bluff with. I think I'm going to make some adjustments as to the hands I bluff rivers with generally, due to the concerns I have about the standard game theory approach I mentioned in the commentary.
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40:50 – Super close, but probably a good fold. Rec players love to bet trash at scare cards, but the fact that he checked back a 4 straight turn usually means that he has at least ace hi.
check-raise as a bluff maybe?
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46:30 – I liked the flop check back as an exploit, but I feel like we can exploitatively fold the river. The idea is that our opponent usually assumed we have showdown value which is reinforced when we call the turn. I feel like villains who bet both the turn and river with Q9 or KQ air are pretty rare… especially after being taken “out of book” like this.
I felt like even if he assumed I have showdown value, he might still feel like he could get me to fold some of that showdown value on the river 4 flush.
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48:50 – I default to opening Q7o on the button and feel like there is no reason to tighten up here.
Yeah this is ridiculously nitty I don't know what happened.
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50:40 – I would have donked into the rec player’s 4bet since I feel like he is exceptionally likely to 1) be 4betting just for fun and 2) check back a lot more than a reg
I felt less concerned about the possibility of him having a random fun hand that checks back and more concerned about minimizing the bets I put into the pot the times I was behind. Once the pot is this bloated, you generally need the best hand to win, and I wasn't confident I had it, plus you sometimes get to induce 3 streets from hands you beat that will stop putting bets into the pot if you show aggression.
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51:10 – It’s really gross, but I think we have a safe fold once the reasonable CO who has been showing massive strength 3bets. I would honestly even consider folding to the turn c/r. As you mentioned in the video, his donk on the flop was essentially a “5bet” and showed lots of strength. The message was “I have such a strong hand that this rec player checking back would make me cry.” And I would expect BB to pick up on this tell.
Yeah, it was a pretty gross spot on the turn, it might be correct to fold to the 3 bet but I wasn't confident enough to make it in that big a pot.
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53:30 – I think this cold-call is really gross since we have 2 players who are going to happily “squeeze” us so often. We are getting 4bet unusually often. A 3bet makes more sense, but I would just fold. I do not agree with the trend towards cold-calling more often in LHE that I have been witnessing.
I don't always have a cold calling range in that spot but my read is that he opens a super wide range in every spot and I feel like I can adequately balance having calls and 3 bets. I do cold call with some quite strong hands there sometimes, it can be a great way to build a massive multiway pot with a massive multiway hand like AQs.
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56:20 – I would def not mess around with the rec player here, but it is tempting since they love to bet at paired boards so much. I feel like a weakness of mine is playing these limped pots vs. rec players. I tend to default towards being foldy since it can’t be a major mistake in tiny pots.
I tend to show down quite a bit early on to help develop a read.
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56:40 – I would bet the flop since it is wet enough for all sorts of stuff to call us down. The rec player might even call 9x twice on the flop and turn.
My intention was to check-raise. I feel like rec players tend to bet a lot when checked to on the flop when they are the only limper. I figured this could get an extra bet out of trash that would otherwise fold to my lead out and would still allow me to get value from the things that would call down if I led out the flop.
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58:30 – I was immediately thinking “bet the river” lol, but I cannot explain why.
Yes, tough to call random fish who limped in on this river with ace high haha
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59:40 – I feel like villain’s range is sets+ when he 3bets the turn . We can make an easy fold even though it is just one bet back to us. Note: I was very wrong here lol
It's a strong range but whatever, it's a big pot and it's online.