2 limps, I'm in the HJ with AA and I raise. BTN, both blinds and both limpers call.

6bb, 6 players, flop J54

Checks to me, I bet, everybody calls.

9bb, 6 players, turn 9

BB checks, EP donks, MP calls.

First decision point - normally with a big hand *and* a big draw you want to shovel chips into the pot, but there are 3 people behind me who will have to call 2 bets cold if I raise. I feel like a smooth call is the right play here, and I won't even complain if one of the 3 people behind me raise - I'll probably 3-bet or even cap given the chance. But I feel like it maximizes my expectation for the whole hand if I just call here and keep everyone in. As played, I just called and so did all 3 villains.

15bb, 6 players, river A

EP and MP check to me. I MUST bet here. I obviously suspect EP turned a flush which is why he donked, and I don't know why he's showing weakness on the river, but I cannot risk missing value with a rivered set of aces even with the three spades on the board. There are too many villains in the pot who could easily all call me with one pair.

I don't think I can fold to one raise either - I'll be getting anywhere from 18 to 22 to 1 on a call, possibly closing the action.

The only real "decision" to make here is if it's raised and re-raised behind me. I'm STILL looking at around 10 to 1 on a coldcall, possibly more. Pot's too big. Is a set of aces on that board good often enough to justify a coldcall facing those pot odds?

What if it's raised, re-rasied and capped behind me? Now I could be looking at odds as low as 8 to 1. Can we find a fold here?

Thanks
DTXCF

I think it’s close between raising the turn honestly. We can clean up hands that have a straight draw and aren’t likely to get reraised. But I can get behind a call.

River I think is a mandatory bet. Definitely folding facing two cold probably sigh calling a raise.

Definitely not reraising or capping the turn if it’s raised back to us.

Your point about cleaning up straight draws made me realize something I didn't think of when I originally posted the hand. The pot is already big when I have my decision point on the turn. There are 11 big bets in it. I do have the big draw to the nuts but I should also consider maximizing my chances to win the pot unimproved. Anybody with one pair has 5 outs to overtake my overpair. Gutshots and even OESDs are not out of the question by any means. EDIT: Smooth calling makes it CORRECT FOR THEM TO CALL with their 4- and 5-out draws!

And what's better, at a table like this there's a pretty good chance that single spades are going to call 2 bets cold drawing dead.

I'm still thinking about this, but I'm leaning toward raising being BETTER than calling here (on the turn).


P.S. after consideration I think I agree with you that a turn raise at a table like this is 90% going to be two pair or better and perhaps even a made flush so 3-betting/capping is probably not correct.

If it gets 3 bet behind you somebody has a flush. You would be lucky to have 7 outs. The most likely two pair includes a J so you may only have 6 outs.

I think this is played great if we bet the river. Donks can be flushes, but they can also be just about anything that called the flop because fish are weird. Our A blocker is nice since it reduces the chance of us getting raised.

I would call a raise. What we do if we face a 3bet probably isn't worth factoring into our river bet decision simply because it is going to happen so rarely given our A.