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Originally Posted by callipygian
Don't deflect with irrelevant points.
I think it makes the point quite clearly. This about a specific hand that I'm holding and how I feel about this hand relative to what my opponents might be doing. My range doesn't matter here at all.
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You think 98 is so high up in your range that only 5-10% of an opponent's calling range is between second pair fifth kicker and nut straight?
Again, my range doesn't matter. I don't believe that doing a range vs. range analysis here makes sense because we're not attempting to do any type of range balancing in this spot. I don't expect my opponents are making any type of adjustment to me at all and are just doing their thing, completely oblivious to any previous action. I have the hand that I have, and they have the hands that they have.
And yes, I think I'm pretty good against my opponents' ranges. What reason do I have to expect that sets or two pairs are in their ranges (outside of Kx two pair getting there on the river)? So there are a lot of empty categories of hands in there. (The only reason hands are in there at all is because of the passive donk factor.)
Maybe sometimes there were some Kx overcard combos that decided to hang around on the turn. And there are some better 9x hands. And everything else is kind of a puddle of drool on the floor. 7x, 6x, random small pocket pairs, maybe even ace high that got curious.
Don't forget that this is a 6-handed limped pot in a live 4/8 game. Think about the lineup of players that's necessary for that to happen. This isn't online 6-max.
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98 is a value bet but it's a thin one, not 90-95%.
If you think differently, that's fine. I'll admit this was just a number I pulled off the top of my head. I didn't do a full range count or anything. But if I were to back it off, I'd back it off to something like 80-85% against one player and not something like 70% or smaller. I think losing this spot against one caller would be quite a surprise.
How thin do you think this is?
Last edited by Aaron W.; 09-27-2017 at 10:15 PM.