Quote:
Originally Posted by checkraisdraw
Villain is an unknown drunk lady in hijack. Giving off tons of talking/strength tells this hand. She raise, I 3! black kings, sb calls (loose passive fish), and hj 4! with a speech.
flop 10 5 2r. Sb x, villain bet, I raise, sb call, v 3!. I call? Sb call. Plan is to raise a safe turn.
Turn j, I change my plan to a call down.
The only hands that got better are JT and JJ. If the preflop range is narrow, JT isn't in the range, and so the most pessimistic is that she has AA-JJ. (Edit: I guess you can throw in TT to be even more pessimistic. That would be an extra 3 hands you're trailing.)
Before the turn card:
AA = 6 hands
KK = 1 hand
QQ = 6 hands
JJ = 6 hands
------> Ahead of 12, tied with 1, behind 6
After the turn card:
AA = 6 hands
JJ = 3 hands
KK = 1 hand
QQ = 6 hands
-----> Ahead of 6, tied with 1, behind 9
I think the read is far too narrow, and we're not even taking into account the dead money of the caller that's stuck for the ride the overwhelming majority of the time.
As played, I raise the turn anyway. But I'd probably have just capped the flop, especially because of the third player. On the turn, I'd bet if checked to and call if bet into.