Villain is an unknown drunk lady in hijack. Giving off tons of talking/strength tells this hand. She raise, I 3! black kings, sb calls (loose passive fish), and hj 4! with a speech.

flop 10 5 2r. Sb x, villain bet, I raise, sb call, v 3!. I call? Sb call. Plan is to raise a safe turn.

Turn j, I change my plan to a call down.

I think it’s fine. I’d actually probably raise and fold to a 3.

I think this is a textbook spot to cap flop and lead turn.

No way I'm folding to a 3! on is I raise turn against a blatant drunk without other reads.

I'm indifferent between raise and call turn because I think turn raise is thin but not bad. Either she's spewing or you're drawing ultra thin, time to find out which.

The hero is the CO or Button.

The only hands that got better are JT and JJ. If the preflop range is narrow, JT isn't in the range, and so the most pessimistic is that she has AA-JJ. (Edit: I guess you can throw in TT to be even more pessimistic. That would be an extra 3 hands you're trailing.)

Before the turn card:

AA = 6 hands
KK = 1 hand
QQ = 6 hands
JJ = 6 hands
------> Ahead of 12, tied with 1, behind 6

After the turn card:

AA = 6 hands
JJ = 3 hands
KK = 1 hand
QQ = 6 hands
-----> Ahead of 6, tied with 1, behind 9

I think the read is far too narrow, and we're not even taking into account the dead money of the caller that's stuck for the ride the overwhelming majority of the time.

As played, I raise the turn anyway. But I'd probably have just capped the flop, especially because of the third player. On the turn, I'd bet if checked to and call if bet into.

Yeah, I think the mistake was just calling on the flop. I wanted to wait for the turn to squeeze out the short stack but that plan sort of backfired. Better to just get money in on a relatively clean board. A ten high flop is a lot better for me than a jack high flop.

Huh? This basically costs the same as calling down but with no chance to improve and win at showdown.

Not to mention if you raise OTT and fold to a 3! you're folding while getting 13:1 on the call. You are NOT a 13:1 dog vs. the range that 3-bets.

You get an extra bet on when ahead

I think folding an overpair on a board like this in a pot this large is out of the question. If we can't call down against a 3! then we should just call and hope to win.

In this case, I think OP should raise the turn because of SB. Heads up I might call down and bet if checked to.

What’s her three bet range given the action?

That's a reason to raise/call, not a reason to raise/fold.

If it's JJ+, JT, you still have correct pot odds to call the 3 bet.

Raise the turn because there’s a third player and never fold your hand regardless of river card. A drunk is capable of playing any hand like two Aces.

Most drunk people aren't trying to level with reverse tells, so I took the strength tells that I was getting at face value. Still, I definitely played too passively and should have capped the flop instead of getting fancy.

Strength tells are only as accurate as your opponent's belief of what is or is not strong.

I do not think that it is limited to hands we are 4.5% against (i.e. just sets, or AA + sets). So long as we are sometimes up against KK or QQ, we have the equity to call down. If the opponent has any bluffs in her range, or other random hands, we are even better off.

If we can state with 100% confidence that we have 2 outs then sure, this is a fold. But we rarely, if ever, have that level of confidence, and certainly not against an unknown, much less an unknown who is drunk. If our confidence level is <100%, the risk of a bad fold massively outweighs the risk of a bad call. A bad call costs us a tiny sliver of ev (we need like 7% equity but only have 4.5%); a bad fold is an equity disaster.

To add more.

In the case where you raise and get 3-bet, you are getting 18:1 on the call.

You need 5.3% equity to make the call 0EV

The times you have only 2 outs, you win the hand 4.3% of the time.

So, even if, as you're throwing out the chips to call, you see villains set, it's only a tiny mistake.

In reality, you have 8 outs over JT or villain has QQ often enough to make folding a monstrous error.

And a drunk villain will often times be overplaying AK or AQ.