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Old 09-05-2017, 05:02 PM   #26
jdr0317
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Re: 8/16 - Semi Bluff or Call Down?

Simple math example.

We play a game where we get a random # between 0 and 1. We ante $0.25, and we post a blind OOP of $0.5. The IP person has the option of betting $1 or checking. So when the action is on us if he bets, we are faced with $0.50 to win $2, or 4:1. If we call in accordance to pot odds (80% of the time, we continue), then our average holding is 0.6. This means that our opponent will bet the top 40% of his numbers along with the bottom 10%.

So we know his betting range is (0,0.1) and (0.6,1). We look Down and see we have 0.77. From a mathematical perspective, we beat "most" of his range (54%). However, a lot of that range just folds when we raise, or rebluffs. So clearly, even though we have "54% equity", it's a bad raise.

This holds true in this game as well. Yes, you may be ahead, but aggressive actions knock out the weakest parts of people's ranges, meaning that as more action goes in, our hand becomes worse and worse. We make our most money with this hand not by getting called by worse, but by having worse bet into us. So why would you want to fold out worse?


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Old 09-05-2017, 05:13 PM   #27
DonkeyOnTilt
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Re: 8/16 - Semi Bluff or Call Down?

I'd really like to hear what hand dead.money is trying to make fold here. This one of those spots that drive me nuts. When I make what I think is a great call but the guy shakes his head, raps the table says youre good because he thinks he's bluffing but he has a better hand he should be checking and I end up looking stupid. The old value bluff.

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Old 09-05-2017, 05:26 PM   #28
asmitty
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Re: 8/16 - Semi Bluff or Call Down?

Independent of whether we should semibluff with A4dd on this texture (we obviously should not), I am not sure that semibluffing with hands like 54dd is advisable here. It seems like have just so many OESDs and gutshot draws (with or without a BDFD) that we are checkraising on this texture. If we are raising with most or all combos of JT, T8s, J8s, 86s, and 85s, it seems that adding hands like 54dd into the mix is just going to make our range way too bluff-heavy.
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Old 09-06-2017, 09:47 AM   #29
Bob148
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Re: 8/16 - Semi Bluff or Call Down?

Quote:
Originally Posted by asmitty View Post
Independent of whether we should semibluff with A4dd on this texture (we obviously should not), I am not sure that semibluffing with hands like 54dd is advisable here. It seems like have just so many OESDs and gutshot draws (with or without a BDFD) that we are checkraising on this texture. If we are raising with most or all combos of JT, T8s, J8s, 86s, and 85s, it seems that adding hands like 54dd into the mix is just going to make our range way too bluff-heavy.
I consider it to be a soft target for my opponents to attack with flop 3 bets; they see me raise with such hands and they react poorly in my experience, or they just fold too much; in both cases my strategy gains ev at near 0 ev cost of a flop raise with those hands at low frequency.

Also, if you never check raise such hands on the flop, are you ever folding to a 3 bet on the flop?
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Old 09-06-2017, 02:20 PM   #30
dead..money
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Re: 8/16 - Semi Bluff or Call Down?

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Originally Posted by dead.money View Post
good poker is being exploitable?
Almost certainly yes. No if you are playing 100-200 online.
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Old 09-06-2017, 03:05 PM   #31
dead..money
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Re: 8/16 - Semi Bluff or Call Down?

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"One thing for certain is that this is a terrible hand to bluff x/r the flop with. We really can't expect better to fold (except maybe like A6 that doesn't pick up a straight draw on the turn), and we fold out worse, so it's a disaster play in that regard. "

Ahh yes trapped in a vacum! You can't expect better to fold against you in your 20/40 game but does that apply to hero in this situaiton? I think not. Check raise in this spot is correct, but once again IMHO.
Sigh, it's like you post the wrong advice on purpose just to ruin my name
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Old 09-07-2017, 01:54 PM   #32
jdr0317
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Re: 8/16 - Semi Bluff or Call Down?

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Originally Posted by dead..money View Post
Almost certainly yes. No if you are playing 100-200 online.
Perfect example using my previous [0,1] game, we have a hand that beats 90% of our opponent's range. We know they fold [0,0.1) and call [0.1,0.9), and raise [0.9,1]. So it's easy to determine that our bet's value is 1 * 0.8 = 0.8 when we fold to the raise, and 1 * 0.8 - 2 * 0.1 = 0.6 when we call the raise. So theoretically, while we should never fold this hand, we know that our opponent is never taking anything from the bottom 10% of hands and throwing a raise in (which is similar to how a lot of live players play).

A good example is when we have top set and the river brings 3 of a suit (flopped flush draw), and our opponent always check raises his rivered flush. Folds his busted straight draws, too. We can easily tell, theoretically, that folding a set at this price is borderline insane. But if our opponent is literally never raising worse, we can begin making massive, massive adjustments in order to take lines whose EV would never possibly exist when we try to play minimum defense strategies and the like.

That's not to say solid fundamentals aren't important. I'd even venture to say developing players should just never fold hands in certain parts of their distribution, to avoid being exploited hard. But figuring out where people make mistakes and exploiting it, once you have a reasonably hard to exploit strategy down, is how to really supercharge a WR.
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Old 09-07-2017, 05:09 PM   #33
phunkphish
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Re: 8/16 - Semi Bluff or Call Down?

Mathematics of Poker Toy Game Basics:

On the river, with no bet in front of you, you want to bluff with the bottom of your range (considerations to blockers should be made). You can't win, so bluffing is better EV.

On the river, if you are facing a bet, you should raise the top, call with medium strength, fold the very bottom, and bluff with hands on the border of call and fold. (considerations should be given to blockers).

The reason you choose these hands is in case your opponent is a doofus. He could have incorrectly value bet a weak hand and now might call with worse. If your opponent isn't a doofus, it doesn't matter where your bluffs come from. Focus on blockers. Where to choose your bluffs is over-scrutinized. In fact, if you focus too much on choosing borderline showdown hands to bluff with, you may end up being the doofus, incorrectly calling a re-reraise with your marginal showdown hand.

On the Turn, Flop, Preflop, or in multiway spots, these river toy game concepts need to be seriously adjusted. Don't blindly follow the guidelines of where to bluff from. Moreover, most of the multi-street examples in MoP deal with streets where handvalues don't change, so don't blindly follow those either.
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Old 09-08-2017, 02:04 PM   #34
lawdude
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Re: 8/16 - Semi Bluff or Call Down?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317 View Post
Simple math example.

We play a game where we get a random # between 0 and 1. We ante $0.25, and we post a blind OOP of $0.5. The IP person has the option of betting $1 or checking. So when the action is on us if he bets, we are faced with $0.50 to win $2, or 4:1. If we call in accordance to pot odds (80% of the time, we continue), then our average holding is 0.6. This means that our opponent will bet the top 40% of his numbers along with the bottom 10%.

So we know his betting range is (0,0.1) and (0.6,1). We look Down and see we have 0.77. From a mathematical perspective, we beat "most" of his range (54%). However, a lot of that range just folds when we raise, or rebluffs. So clearly, even though we have "54% equity", it's a bad raise.

This holds true in this game as well. Yes, you may be ahead, but aggressive actions knock out the weakest parts of people's ranges, meaning that as more action goes in, our hand becomes worse and worse. We make our most money with this hand not by getting called by worse, but by having worse bet into us. So why would you want to fold out worse?


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Yep.

The cliff's version of this is that when CALLING, the relevant range is your opponent's entire range, whereas when RAISING/BETTING, the relevant ranges are the portions of your opponent's range that will call or raise.
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Old 10-16-2017, 11:09 AM   #35
mongidig
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Re: 8/16 - Semi Bluff or Call Down?

Assuming you call the flop bet, what turn cards are you folding? What turn/river combos are you folding? What is your play if you spike an Ace on the turn?
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