Quote:
Originally Posted by dead..money
Almost certainly yes. No if you are playing 100-200 online.
Perfect example using my previous [0,1] game, we have a hand that beats 90% of our opponent's range. We know they fold [0,0.1) and call [0.1,0.9), and raise [0.9,1]. So it's easy to determine that our bet's value is 1 * 0.8 = 0.8 when we fold to the raise, and 1 * 0.8 - 2 * 0.1 = 0.6 when we call the raise. So theoretically, while we should never fold this hand, we know that our opponent is never taking anything from the bottom 10% of hands and throwing a raise in (which is similar to how a lot of live players play).
A good example is when we have top set and the river brings 3 of a suit (flopped flush draw), and our opponent always check raises his rivered flush. Folds his busted straight draws, too. We can easily tell, theoretically, that folding a set at this price is borderline insane. But if our opponent is literally never raising worse, we can begin making massive, massive adjustments in order to take lines whose EV would never possibly exist when we try to play minimum defense strategies and the like.
That's not to say solid fundamentals aren't important. I'd even venture to say developing players should just never fold hands in certain parts of their distribution, to avoid being exploited hard. But figuring out where people make mistakes and exploiting it, once you have a reasonably hard to exploit strategy down, is how to really supercharge a WR.