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8/16 - Q8s flop decision

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10-09-2017 , 10:18 PM

DTLB

adept

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 904

Tight utg raises, MP and SB call, I call with Q

from BB.

4-way flop (8 SB): J

There's a cbet and two calls.

Do I have enough to continue for 11:1?

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10-10-2017 , 12:31 AM

Aaron W.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 30,132

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTLB

Tight utg raises, MP and SB call, I call with Q

from BB.

4-way flop (8 SB): J

There's a cbet and two calls.

Do I have enough to continue for 11:1?

No.

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10-10-2017 , 01:23 AM

BigBadBabar

California Elephant

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 21,553

it's close. i'd probably call.

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10-10-2017 , 01:31 PM

AlanBostick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 11,473

We've got four non-flush pair-draw outs and two effective outs from the backdoor flush draw. The pair draw carries the risk of being dominated (or worse) by hands like KQ or A8. On the other hand, once in a while our hand will be good when the Qh hits.

That gives us 24% likelihood of improving by the river. Even discounting the pair outs by 50% gives us 16%, which is rather more than the 9% breakeven equity offered by the pot odds. The BDFD alone is almost enough to continue.

I would say that it is more than "close," but still a smallish edge that brings with it a lot of variance.

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10-10-2017 , 03:56 PM

Aaron W.

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 30,132

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlanBostick

Even discounting the pair outs by 50% gives us 16%, which is rather more than the 9% breakeven equity offered by the pot odds. The BDFD alone is almost enough to continue.

I would argue that the pair outs for the 8 should be discounted even further, possibly down to almost zero. With a "tight utg" firing again and two callers, I'm not sure that even if you hit an 8 that you would want to call a turn bet with a sense there's a good chance you have the best hand. (The 8 also brings a lot of straight redraws against you.)

I like peeling when closing the action, but I don't like this situation enough to do it.

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10-10-2017 , 04:12 PM

asmitty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4,442

Even if you had no pair outs, you have a backdoor flush draw (1.5 outs) and two backdoor gutshot draws (probably about 1-1.5 outs collectively). That's very close to break-even. If you give yourself one out for a queen, it becomes a clear call. I also think that you end up getting a free card a non-zero amount of the time.

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10-10-2017 , 04:58 PM

Aaron W.

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 30,132

Quote:

Originally Posted by asmitty

Even if you had no pair outs, you have a backdoor flush draw (1.5 outs) and two backdoor gutshot draws (probably about 1-1.5 outs collectively).

Can you elaborate on where you're getting this estimate from?

A backdoor flush draw is a consecutive 9 outer and 8 outer. A double inside draw (exactly T/9) is a consecutive 8 outer and 4 outer. It should be about 1/2 the number of outs.

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10-10-2017 , 06:40 PM

asmitty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4,442

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aaron W.

I have always counted a backdoor flush draw as 1.5 outs. A flush draw with two cards to come is 9 outs; a backdoor flush draw is roughly a quarter as likely to come. (1.5 may actually be too conservative, but it accounts for the times that flush cards pair the board, make someone a higher flush, etc.).

As for a gutshot draw, keep in mind that you have two backdoor gutshot draws: 9/T (in any order) or 6/5 (in any order). So 16 out of 47 remaining unseen cards will give you a gutshot draw on the turn - or 12/47, if you don't want to count the 4 that also give you a flush draw.

Last edited by asmitty; 10-10-2017 at 06:45 PM.

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10-10-2017 , 06:51 PM

Montrealcorp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 13,319

Easy fold imo

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10-10-2017 , 07:52 PM

#10

Aaron W.

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 30,132

Quote:

Originally Posted by asmitty

Heh -- I missed the 6/5 on the low end. I was only looking at filling the T9. Thanks!

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10-10-2017 , 10:55 PM

#11

ninefingershuffle

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 3,543

Quote:

Originally Posted by asmitty

I think this all comes down to what utg flop bet range is. He raised in early position and then bet into three players. How are you going against KQ? AA?

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10-11-2017 , 02:04 AM

#12

Montrealcorp

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Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 13,319

Not only that, maybe better Q are out there out or cards you need to complete your bd draws are in other players hands, because it ain’t HU as well .
I mean It’s not like it was a limp pot with late players and blinds in the hands ...
Adding the Utg ( is tight to add more ). Bet into 3 players and got call at 2 places ..

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10-11-2017 , 03:25 PM

#13

Clumsy Surgeon

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 54

For right now, what is your B.B. defending range? We’ll get to his opening /cbet ranges later.

Short answer yes I think you have enough equity getting 11-1 with an overcard, bdfd, and bdsds. But I agree it’s close given his likely opening range and willingness to cbet multiway.

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10-11-2017 , 03:46 PM

#14

mongidig

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 5,654

It comes down to how tight the UTG raiser is and what his c bet frequency is.

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10-11-2017 , 06:34 PM

#15

Aaron W.

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 30,132

Let's change this around a bit. What if MP and SB both threw their money in and then mucked their hands to make this heads up. In this case, I'm inclined to peel. I feel okay HU against UTG.

But with both of them in the hand, I'm significantly less confident in the outs. For example, HU I would feel okay if an 8 fell on the turn. 4-handed, I don't feel okay about it anymore.

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10-11-2017 , 07:32 PM

#16

AlanBostick

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 11,473

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montrealcorp

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10-11-2017 , 08:51 PM

#17

bipolarbearclaw

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 340

This would be better if you had outs to 1 card open ender/double gutter.

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